General Weather Discussion - March 2017

[Anonymous.]

Last cold morning for a while will be Friday morning. Then we will shift lows back into the 40s, instead of near freezing.

Gradual warm up continues into the weekend, which looks great.

Next rain chances moving in Monday night into Tuesday, but look slim at this time.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Think we are out of freezing range? Deciding to open up my sprinkler system.

[riflesforwatie]

Think we are out of freezing range? Deciding to open up my sprinkler system.

Simple answer is we aren't fully out of the woods yet.

How cold does it have to get to mess up your sprinkler system? When have you opened it up in previous years? If you open it up can you shut it back down if you have 24 hr notice that a freeze is coming?

[FighttheGoodFight]

Simple answer is we aren't fully out of the woods yet.

How cold does it have to get to mess up your sprinkler system? When have you opened it up in previous years? If you open it up can you shut it back down if you have 24 hr notice that a freeze is coming?

I just like to keep the lines clear until after the freezing season. I am just going to wait until April. This early spring is doing some work on my yard. Going to have to mow this weekend!

[SoonerDave]

No matter how warm it gets, I still remember my wonderful aunt who always warned against doing ANYTHING outside until after Easter for the risk of freeze. She was an absolutely brilliant natural gardener who supplied nearly our entire family with the most fabulous vegetables (eggplant, zucchini, tomatoes, you name it) for years until she just wasn't able to work in the yard anymore....

Anyway, bottom line...no matter what the computers and the models may say...my aunt trumps 'em

[Anonymous.]

We should finally get a break from this ridiculous wind tomorrow. Extreme fire danger today. Winds come back Wednesday and Thursday, but not as strong as the last few days.

If there was one thing to change about OK weather, without a doubt it would be the wind.

Next decent rain chances look like maybe late this weekend into early next week.

[Bunty]

March has been living up to its reputation as a very windy month. This afternoon, my backyard anemometer recorded it's highest gust for 2017. It's 41 mph.

[tfvc.org]

Just saw this today: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...outhern-plains

The 2017 tornado season is running far ahead of average
The highly progressive pattern that’s kept midlatitude storms shuttling across the United States all winter has given an early boost to the U.S. tornado season of 2017. Such a progressive pattern is important but not sufficient for producing early-season severe weather. Even if upper-level conditions favor severe weather, there may not be enough time between midlatitude storm systems for unstable air to flow back into place from the Gulf of Mexico. This year, however, the Gulf and Caribbean have been consistently warm, which has helped generate plenty of warm, moist air for midlatitude storms to access. In records back to 1981, this is the first year in which sea surface temperatures averaged across the entire Gulf never dropped below 73°F, as discussed by Eric Berger at ArsTechnica and shown in Figure 5 below (thanks to WU member Mark Cole for this tip). As of Monday, SSTs over the western Gulf were running 1°C - 2°C (1.8-3.6°F) above the seasonal norm.

Thus far in 2017, NOAA/SPC has logged 268 preliminary tornado reports. This is roughly double the average of 133 reports racked up by March 5 over the preceding 11 years (2005-2015). This year also stands out in a longer-term perspective, even after you “inflation-adjust” the data back to 1954 to account for the increased tendency since then for a given tornado to be spotted, chased, photographed, videotaped, etc. After the inflation adjustment, this year’s preliminary total of 228 tornado reports (see Figure 6 below) compares to a long-term average of just 69 reports by this point in the year.


Figure 5. In data extending back to 1981, sea surface temperatures averaged across the Gulf of Mexico were the warmest on record this winter. Image credit: Michael Lowry, @MichaelRLowry.


Figure 6. “Inflation-adjusted” cumulative tornado totals for the period 1954 - 2016 (various colors) and 2017 to date (black). The red trace shows the highest adjusted value observed on each date through the year, with the lowest value on each date in magenta. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

[turnpup]

About 30 minutes ago, we were out on the patio looking at beautiful clear skies and stars. Then, without warning, not five minutes ago, my husband says he thinks he sees lightning. My response was that it couldn't be lighting. Then, just as suddenly, we have about 30 seconds of hail, the largest of which was pea-sized. Then a couple of raindrops and very small claps of thunder. All this just a few blocks of Midtown. Typical Oklahoma random weather!

[Bunty]

About 30 minutes ago, we were out on the patio looking at beautiful clear skies and stars. Then, without warning, not five minutes ago, my husband says he thinks he sees lightning. My response was that it couldn't be lighting. Then, just as suddenly, we have about 30 seconds of hail, the largest of which was pea-sized. Then a couple of raindrops and very small claps of thunder. All this just a few blocks of Midtown. Typical Oklahoma random weather!

Sounds like it developed over your heads.

[turnpup]

Quite possibly. And it stopped as suddenly as it started.

[jn1780]

There has been some pretty amazing images coming from the new GOES-16 satellite. It will be a great asset when it becomes fully operational. I bet it will be a lot easier to see storms developing along the dryline.

[TU 'cane]

I've always heard to wait until after Easter or tax day regarding potential freezes.
March is always an interesting month and it's no stranger to a freak snow around here.

[TU 'cane]

And just like that, Tulsa's forecast for the next few days includes a couple lows below freezing. Gonna be a cold weekend.

[SoonerDave]

Is OKC going to get *any* rain out of this little Saturday system?? Kept hearing 100% POP for the area most of the week, and here we are at 1pm and its still bone dry here in SW OKC. Not a drop....so far..

[Anonymous.]

This was never going to be a washout. Just a solid chance at drizzle and showers. Which continue to develop over C OK, they will slowly push south with development.

[SoonerDave]

This was never going to be a washout. Just a solid chance at drizzle and showers. Which continue to develop over C OK, they will slowly push south with development.

Oh I know it wasn't a washout, but I was perfectly happy with the idea of maybe a 1/4" or so of free water, that's all.

[Easy180]

Cold dry north wind now guessing we won't get squat?

[SoonerDave]

Cold dry north wind now guessing we won't get squat?

Sure looking that way. Man. So much for 100% chances 😁

[LocoAko]

Uh, have you guys been outside? We've gotten 0.08" at the OKC North mesonet site so far. 0.07" at Spencer, 0.05" downtown, and up to 0.48" in Guthrie. Sure it isn't a washout, but certainly more than "squat" and not a bust in the slightest...

[Outhunder]

^
Funny!!

[SoonerDave]

Uh, have you guys been outside? We've gotten 0.08" at the OKC North mesonet site so far. 0.07" at Spencer, 0.05" downtown, and up to 0.48" in Guthrie. Sure it isn't a washout, but certainly more than "squat" and not a bust in the slightest...

We got maybe 30 seconds of cold spider spit.

How many thousandths of an inch in a squat?

[Anonymous.]

Reinforcing cold front coming through overnight. Should spark off some light rain showers.

Tomorrow will be cold with strong north winds. Then the rest of the week will be cool while we will slowly climb back toward 70 by Friday.

[BG918]

A weak storm will move through the region on Friday. Best rain/storm chances appear to be eastern OK but not great chances there. The models are showing a bit more moisture available today so we'll see if anything trends upward. The entire state will be in the 80's early next week with continuing high fire danger.

The one to watch will be next week. The GFS has been consistently showing a big storm coming through around Mar. 22/23. Obviously a lot can change but it looks like a pretty classic early season severe weather maker.

[Anonymous.]

^ I concur with the above. Beautiful outdoor weather for the next handful of days. Friday looks very nice, with lighter winds - but could be relatively cloudy with an outside chance at a rain shower.

The weekend looks superb. Storm chances increasing toward Wednesday evening and Thursday.