General Weather Discussion - September & October 2016

[Anonymous.]

Went ahead and started new thread for the next two months as nothing too exciting happens around this time.

Rain chances increase later this evening and overnight. Then another good chance tomorrow afternoon-evening. Friday looks like the best chance and heaviest rainfall, likely to occur in the evening and overnight.

[bradh]

Went ahead and started new thread for the next two months as nothing too exciting happens around this time.

Rain chances increase later this evening and overnight. Then another good chance tomorrow afternoon-evening. Friday looks like the best chance and heaviest rainfall, likely to occur in the evening and overnight.

disagree, fall starts

[Anonymous.]

Really good shot at rain and storms across pretty much entire state tonight. The timing puts it in OKC around midnight, but that may end up being later. It will come out of the NW and slide S and E.

Looking ahead, temps looks to only get into the 80s beginning around Tuesday, with chances of rain daily while we are involved in a stalled boundary.

[BG918]

Looking like an unsettled pattern Wednesday-Saturday!

[Pete]

Holy cats and dogs, just got an inch of rain at my house in about 15 minutes.

[jompster]

Holy cats and dogs, just got an inch of rain at my house in about 15 minutes.

Mine too! Monsoon!

[Anonymous.]

Storms continue to pop up. Evolving cluster just SW of OKC, looks like it will impact the metro here in the next hour. Look for flooding rains to be the main threat, maybe some 40mph winds if the line firms up.

[Pete]

I got a little bit of hail in that last cell and some pretty good winds.

[sayyes]

I got a little bit of hail in that last cell and some pretty good winds.

When the storm hit campus it was chaos. It was like no one had ever been in a storm before.

[Easy180]

Drove shortly after the storm and there were numerous fence panels down in the S Moore area. Got some lovely wind and a couple inches of rain down there.

[Anonymous.]

Powerful storm system moves across the US this weekend. Bringing waves of rain and storms to OK on Saturday afternoon thru the overnight. There is some hinting at tropical development on the tail-end of this storm system just off the coast of TX next week.

[Bunty]

Powerful storm system moves across the US this weekend. Bringing waves of rain and storms to OK on Saturday afternoon thru the overnight. There is some hinting at tropical development on the tail-end of this storm system just off the coast of TX next week.

Wow, the weather lady, Emily Sutton, at KFOR-4, Oklahoma City shows off weather model showing a very rainy weekend in Oklahoma thru 1pm Tues., especially in central areas of the state. If the approaching cold front stalls out for a while as forecast, the more the model will be accurate. It will be followed by the first cool spell of the fall with lows in the 50s.

[Bobby821]

Any thoughts on this and the impact it might have on Oklahoma's weather ?


A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
High above Earth’s tropics, a pattern of winds changed recently in a way that scientists had never seen in more than 60 years of consistent measurements.

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

[Pete]

Wow, the weather lady, Emily Sutton, at KFOR-4, Oklahoma City shows off weather model showing a very rainy weekend in Oklahoma thru 1pm Tues., especially in central areas of the state. If the approaching cold front stalls out for a while as forecast, the more the model will be accurate. It will be followed by the first cool spell of the fall with lows in the 50s.

Missed this one by a country mile.

Not even an inch at my house.

[John1744]

Yep I'm a bit disappointed, everyone was basically calling for torrential rain in central OK, the NWS Norman had started to really put the brakes on early yesterday morning, dropping to I think about a 2" prediction for the area but yeah I was really hoping for a good wash out in the area. I've been missing the rain that much!

[Sirsteve]

Missed this one by a country mile.

Not even an inch at my house.

I agree, this forecast was a big bust. Im in Midwest City and my rain gauge shows .41 inches of rain. If im not mistaken there was suppose to be waves of heavy rain starting Saturday afternoon and ending sometime Sunday. Well it was a light rain and it didnt start til midnight and was pretty much done in a couple hours

[Anonymous.]

Models were too bullish on amounts. And the placement was a crapshoot, but I would have favored SW OK and NW TX for sure. I am not sure what model Emily above used, but it was likely not a consistent result run to run and was low-confidence.

This entire week looks beautiful. Next precip. chances move in sometime after the weekend, as it looks now.

[LakeEffect]

Models were too bullish on amounts. And the placement was a crapshoot, but I would have favored SW OK and NW TX for sure. I am not sure what model Emily above used, but it was likely not a consistent result run to run and was low-confidence.

This entire week looks beautiful. Next precip. chances move in sometime after the weekend, as it looks now.

You were right about SW OK/NW TX though. Wichita Falls picked up 5.5" plus...

[baralheia]

It is disgustingly gorgeous outside this afternoon, despite being a bit windy. Holy cow. More of this, please!

[John1744]

Seeing some random thoughts from armchair Mets on Twitter and Facebook that Tuesday is turning into a slightly interesting setup in so far as it's a decently powerful system for this type of year mainly in the wind department.

[SoonerDave]

Seeing some random thoughts from armchair Mets on Twitter and Facebook that Tuesday is turning into a slightly interesting setup in so far as it's a decently powerful system for this type of year mainly in the wind department.

SPC has put out a 15% hatched region for Day 5 (Tuesday) that runs just west of Wichita Falls through western OK and the eastern Texas panhandle north through western Kansas. I think it's a *little* unusual for them to put *any* kind of a region out that far in advance, so that tells me they're at least watching how things evolve here over the next few days.

I did hear Lacey Swope on Ch 9 yesterday saying that some of the models were pushing the stronger storms farther north into Kansas and leaving OK with more of a heavy rain/wind event, but it was still too far out to make anything that concrete. The basic structure of a dryline in the west in advance of a warmer airmass was likely to be in place, but return moisture was an unknown in the mix at this point.

And, of course, it bears repeating this is roughly the time of the secondary fall severe weather season, so this isn't totally out of the ordinary for October.

Interesting to see how it unfolds. After this clears out, the rest of the week looks fabulous - sunny and in the high 70's the rest of the week and into the weekend. As in *wow*.

[John1744]

Hurricane Matthew is turning into a beast!

[John1744]

Still two days out as well.

[SoonerDave]

Yeah I think moisture return is going to be the X factor for this. Big deep storm setup. Need to keep eyeballs peeled on this....

[Bobby821]

Most of this will end up being in NW/NC Oklahoma and more so on up into Kansas and Nebraska only a few storms here in Oklahoma mainly North of OKC area as it stands now.