General Weather Discussion - April 2016

[Anonymous.]

Rain is developing right now in Western OK. This will continue to fill in and slowly push east.

I would put steady rain in OKC around 11pm-midnight.

[Hollywood]

Rain is developing right now in Western OK. This will continue to fill in and slowly push east.

I would put steady rain in OKC around 11pm-midnight.

Thank you.

[Anonymous.]

Well the rain is having a hard time pushing east. Just now coming into western sides of the metro @ 1:30am.

[OKCisOK4me]

I concur^^

[Achilleslastand]

Will there be another batch coming in tonight or are we done with the heavy rain?

[Bunty]

Will there be another batch coming in tonight or are we done with the heavy rain?

100% of heavy rain tonight, according to the national weather service.

[bchris02]

What are the long-term forecasts looking like going into May? Are we looking at another active, very wet May like last year or do you think it will dry out? Or, is it too early to tell?

[Anonymous.]

Another batch tonight. Models put the heaviest rain over C OK around 10pm.

[bchris02]

I know it's early but what do you think about Sunday-Tuesday of next week?

[Anonymous.]

Flooding concerns potentially going up over the next couple days as models are leaning towards more rounds of rain.

Looking ahead, we dry out after one last blow late Wednesday night. Then severe chances come in late weekend into early next week. Too early to call, but right now it looks like Western OK Sunday. And Central OK on Monday.

[Anonymous.]

Sunshine and general solar radiation coming out over most of the C OK area will create some decent energy and raise temperatures for a wave of storms that is currently developing out of the TX PH.

Flooding threat will be high this evening. Especially across C and S OK.

[bchris02]

I'm curious about Sunday-Tuesday and whether or not it has potential to be a classic high-end setup for Oklahoma, with a stationary front leading to three straight days of tornadic supercells. From what I've seen, we will have a negative-tilt trough and decent instability.

[Pete]

Yet another great thing about living downtown...

I can run over to the Arts Festival after work then high-tail it home super quick if it starts to pour.

Need my Indian taco fix!

[ou48A]

I'm curious about Sunday-Tuesday and whether or not it has potential to be a classic high-end setup for Oklahoma, with a stationary front leading to three straight days of tornadic supercells. From what I've seen, we will have a negative-tilt trough and decent instability.

Some of the OKC TV weather folks are starting to talk about a Tornado threat… Right now it sounds like Tuesday could be significant.

[bchris02]

Some of the OKC TV weather folks are starting to talk about a Tornado threat… Right now it sounds like Tuesday could be significant.

Yeah the different TV stations have different forecasts, some having a threat on Tuesday and others focused more on Sunday and Monday. KOCO is usually the most ominous and they are predicting Sunday and Monday but have nothing for Tuesday. I think it's best to keep an eye on the SPC forecasts. This far out much could change.

[bchris02]

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

[SOONER8693]

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

Mike MORGASM is a fear monger.

[jn1780]

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

It is really silly for anyone to try assign a probability this far out for tornados. Especially if he was talking about a specific part of Oklahoma. There are several questions about next week's potential setup.

[ou48A]

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

I disagree…. This is just one more tool that can be used to inform most people.

I believe people need to be informed on the likely severity and of threats nature.
There are many people who are out and about who may watch the weather but can’t hear the sound……These visual graphics do a better job of explaining the risk threats for Tornadoes than the old risk maps.

I don’t believe very many people are actually scared by them and if they are they need to either become better educated or just simply change the channel if they don't like them!
I believe they are helpful for the vast majority or the Weather Channel and others would not still be using them. They could save lives?

I like the tornado threat level visual graphics a lot and hope they keep giving them.

As to doing this a week out, that’s a different story IMHO

[bchris02]

As to doing this a week out, that’s a different story IMHO

Yeah, there is too much still in question regarding next week's severe setup to be hyping a "TORCon" this early. From everything I am seeing, it has potential to be a very high-end setup, one of "those" days in Oklahoma, but being almost a week out, things might not come together in that way. I remember last year, we were three days away from what appeared to be a high-end day shaping up but as we got closer the threat dissipated and it ended up being a bust. Meanwhile you had people like Reed Timmer saying to prepare for an outbreak of historic proportions.

[OKCisOK4me]

David Payne knows what's up. He said they're just keeping an eye on next Tuesday. He's not making a fuss about it now.

[Bellaboo]

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

He has severe weather as a 6. Tornado was a 3.

[Bobby821]

Here is what the Storm Prediction Center had posted this morning regarding the extended outlooks for next week.

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

[Soonerman12]

I don't have a problem with there long term outlooks. If it scares you then good, a lot of people didn't listen to the warnings in Joplin a few years back and look what happened. I'd rather people get scared and worried and there be a bust than people not caring or thinking anything will happen and a lot of lives be lost. Anyways, just pay attention that there is a chance of ALL modes of severe weather next week.

The SPC at the NWS has issued a Day 7 15% outlook which usually doesn't happen a whole lot.

Day 7 is for next Tuesday,

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200851
SPC AC 200851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

..BROYLES.. 04/20/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[Celebrator]

I'd rather have long term "scary" outlooks than no warnings at all. That's what you live with in earthquake country. Bet you the Japanese and Ecuadorians would have loved to have a head's up on what they dealt with last week. These forecasts help you get prepared practically and mentally, which I find helpful actually.