General Weather Discussion - April 2016

[stile99]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it spun up baby tornados and what not but, seriously, shutting down schools for subpar EF2 spinups?

IKR? And for storms that happened at 8PM, too! Ridiculous! Heads should roll for this!

Of course, I suspect you might be taking a slightly different direction had the storms hit at 3PM...

[Roger S]

So today, people were fleeing downtown at 3PM like a tsunami was on their heels.

Then, my vet called to say they couldn't honor a 5PM appointment because they were shutting down, and just about every school and social event is cancelled tonight.

Is this common now every time there is a threat of severe weather that is still hours and hours out? (this is my first storm season here in 25 years)

I sure hope so... It was nice leaving my office at 5:17, to go home to mow my yard, and there were only a handful of cars on the streets.... Almost looked like a ghost town driving home.....

But seriously, personally I think there was a whole lot of over-reaction to this event. I understand, and appreciate, the need to be safe during inclement weather but yesterday just seemed a little ridiculous to me.

My office was let out at 4:30. I stayed until after 5 PM dealing with an IT issue on one of the partners computers and still made it home in time to mow, edge, and weed eat my yard, and I did all that just by watching the radar on Mesonet to see where things were firing up.

My biggest concern is that eventually people will build up a tolerance to this new brand of "The Sky is Falling!" forecasting mentality and stop paying attention all together.

[corwin1968]

There was almost definitely a small tornado along the leading edge of the convection as it moved through NE OK into east Edmond/Arcadia/Luther area, with debris signatures showing up on radar. There had also been a very tiny and brief circulation NE of Mustang (that went on to produce the Luther tor). Will be interesting to see any damage assessment in the next few days... as the circulation was concurrent with 60-80+ mph winds that swept through parts of Bethany and N OKC.

This morning I saw an entire back fence and at least one section of the side fence were blown over last night near NW 178th & May. This was common-area fencing and heavier duty than the fences around backyards. I also saw one broken telephone pole and some damage to the fencing along May at the golf course there at NW 178th. I assume this was all due to straight line winds.

[LakeEffect]

My biggest concern is that eventually people will build up a tolerance to this new brand of "The Sky is Falling!" forecasting mentality and stop paying attention all together.

But who said the sky is falling? The meteorologists I follow all said, in essence: "things could be bad, just be prepared." I think people's definition of "be prepared" has changed greatly. I don't think its the forecaster's faults, I feel sorry for all of them and the vitriol they're receiving for reactions that were not in their control.

[Roger S]

But who said the sky is falling? The meteorologists I follow all said, in essence: "things could be bad, just be prepared." I think people's definition of "be prepared" has changed greatly. I don't think its the forecaster's faults, I feel sorry for all of them and the vitriol they're receiving for reactions that were not in their control.

Something triggered the mass exodus that took place in OKC yesterday.... I don't ever recall seeing so many extreme cautionary measures being used in this city prior to a severe weather event.

And if you look back about a week ago in this thread you will see several posts about Mike Morgan hyping this weather system.

But I do agree with you that peoples definition of "be prepared" has become skewed.

[Outhunder]

Seems to me that if there was one region that would be able to handle this better, it would be here. It would be like cities up north closing everything down due to a couple of inches of snow.

[HangryHippo]

But who said the sky is falling? The meteorologists I follow all said, in essence: "things could be bad, just be prepared." I think people's definition of "be prepared" has changed greatly. I don't think its the forecaster's faults, I feel sorry for all of them and the vitriol they're receiving for reactions that were not in their control.

Agreed completely, cafe.

[LakeEffect]

But I do agree with you that peoples definition of "be prepared" has become skewed.

Yep. We're getting off the track of "April 2016" weather here, but the same applies to winter storms in OK as of late. What's changing that is causing people to react differently now?

Might be a topic for a new thread if we want to leave this one for April-specific weather...

[Anonymous.]

Most of this discussion should go into the Oklahoma Media Coverage thread.

Looking ahead now, there is a similar system coming through on Friday. This one looks to be not as complex as Tuesday's setup, but still pretty hairy to forecast.

Right now it looks like triple point type of setup in W OK or maybe as far west as eastern TX PH. Moisture return will have a lot to do with quality of cells, but it bears watching the next few days as the event is only about 60 hours out.

[PhiAlpha]

But who said the sky is falling? The meteorologists I follow all said, in essence: "things could be bad, just be prepared." I think people's definition of "be prepared" has changed greatly. I don't think its the forecaster's faults, I feel sorry for all of them and the vitriol they're receiving for reactions that were not in their control.

That is what I took out of the forecast. The only change I made to my routine was parking my car in the garage before the storms rolled in. It was the public reaction to their forecasts that was on the extreme end of this, not the forecasts themselves. I didn't hear a meteorologist say anything other than, "be weather aware", there will be a potential for large hail, damaging winds, and some strong tornados, have a severe weather plan for wherever you will be between 3 PM - 11 PM, and if the weather gets bad...stay off the roads. I think bitching at the meteorologists is pretty stupid when all they did was identify and warn the public of a potentially dangerous situation. I would much rather them give us a stern early warning of potentially violent weather events, then go on like everything's normal until it hits. We are lucky that it turned into a few isolated tornadoes, small hail and straight line winds. It had all the ingredients to be much worse.

[jn1780]

Just goes to show how you shouldn't freak out about a model forecasting an outbreak 1 week from when that model came out. Funny thing is that two or three days before the event, models were forecasting unfavorable wind shear for tornadoes. Of course the mainstream media didn't really point this out, they were still trying to "wishcast" the event into something bigger. If you know how to read computer models or follow people people outside of mainstream media than your probably not surprised that yesterday was a bust.

Of course, there was a chance it could have turned out to be a bigger day, but the chances were always greater that it was going to be a bust when it came to tornadoes. You could tell the SPC was hedging their bets in outlook discussions. They can get away with no consequences for a bust forecast where nothing happens(as long as it doesn't happen all the time). It would only take one bust forecast where something major happens for there to be major political consequences.

People just don't know how to put things into prospective. They want a black and white answer which you simply can't do.

[stile99]

Steering the discussion back to April, rather than general weather...

The vibe I'm picking up seems to be along the lines of "Why all the panic for just a little rain?". However, I don't think this is accurate, so I hope I'm just interpreting it wrong. The forecast was not for rain, the forecast was for "storms with the potential to eff you up...BAD". I invite anyone who truly believes nothing happened to head to SW 44th and Morgan Road (to pick one example) and volunteer to help clean up. Drive carefully though, the road is closed due to trees and power lines being down.

Nobody died. GREAT!!!! How many people have to die for a warning to be warranted, as opposed to "panic for panic's sake"? I said it earlier, I'll say it again, if what happened between 8PM-9PM happened between 2PM-3PM, every single one of you would be singing a different song.

You want panic for panic's sake? Mike Morgan telling people to drive south, heading directly into the path of the storm. You want a completely appropriate warning? Last night, when they were telling people to stay inside, don't go out trying to watch.

[bradh]

The timing was a bit off, but when they originally forecasted the storms to enter the west metro at 5pm, that's what everyone was basing decisions on. I let my folks go a little early yesterday, if those storms that rolled through at 8pm had hit at 5pm, it wasn't worth having my folks trying to drive home in that crap.

[BDP]

If the choice is over caution vs more dead kids? I'll take over caution. I think so many folks have been personally affected by recent storms, or know someone who was, that this is the new normal.

To a large extent I agree, but the long term solution really shouldn't be to send them home. It should be to make the schools the safest place they could be. The thing is that for a lot of these kids, sending them home isn't making them safer, it's just shedding the liability from the school districts. If it's the kids' safety we are really concerned about, sending a bunch of them to homes that are no better equipped to handle winds above 150mph than our schools are and where there may not be any adult supervision at all is really not a very good solution.

Of course, making the schools the safest place for our kids to be would be a long and expensive undertaking that would take raising revenue and we can't really seem to find a way to do that for anything at this point.

[bchris02]

Anybody know why it took so long to TOR warn the storm that came through Oklahoma county? It was producing numerous weak spin ups. Of course they aren't strong tornadoes, but anybody outside or in a mobile home needed to be prepared.

[Anonymous.]

NWS acknowledged it by this:

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 15h15 hours ago
814pm - very brief spin ups possible along leading edge of storms moving into OKC metro area. May last just seconds. Minimal damage.


The logic is basically that Severe Thunderstorm Warning covers the possibility of tornadoes. And they try and reserve Tornado Warning for sustained tracking tornadoes or the immediate threat of one.


Personally, I think TOR warning should have been issued despite them being maybe 1-2 minute lasting EF0s or not. The warning was not issued until the tornado was confirmed to be on the ground crossing Turner Turnpike by OHP.

[SoonerDave]

Anybody know why it took so long to TOR warn the storm that came through Oklahoma county? It was producing numerous weak spin ups. Of course they aren't strong tornadoes, but anybody outside or in a mobile home needed to be prepared.

My opinion, and others may disagree, is that there's no need to tor warn what amounts to an EF0 or less tornado. It's something barely even in the category of a dust devil. The objective isn't to warn anything that spins; it's to warn against damaging weather potential. I think you run the risk of creating more problems than you solve by trying to warn every possible spinup in a situation like last night.

[Anonymous.]

My opinion, and others may disagree, is that there's no need to tor warn what amounts to an EF0 or less tornado. It's something barely even in the category of a dust devil. The objective isn't to warn anything that spins; it's to warn against damaging weather potential. I think you run the risk of creating more problems than you solve by trying to warn every possible spinup in a situation like last night.

I agree with this, but if I was the one pressing buttons last night - I am not risking such a situation over a heavily populated area. So my opinion is I agree with the logic, but the circumstances last night would have led me to issue the tornado warning.

[SoonerDave]

Just goes to show how you shouldn't freak out about a model forecasting an outbreak 1 week from when that model came out. Funny thing is that two or three days before the event, models were forecasting unfavorable wind shear for tornadoes. Of course the mainstream media didn't really point this out, they were still trying to "wishcast" the event into something bigger. If you know how to read computer models or follow people people outside of mainstream media than your probably not surprised that yesterday was a bust.

Of course, there was a chance it could have turned out to be a bigger day, but the chances were always greater that it was going to be a bust when it came to tornadoes. You could tell the SPC was hedging their bets in outlook discussions. They can get away with no consequences for a bust forecast where nothing happens(as long as it doesn't happen all the time). It would only take one bust forecast where something major happens for there to be major political consequences.

People just don't know how to put things into prospective. They want a black and white answer which you simply can't do.

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.

[SoonerDave]

I agree with this, but if I was the one pressing buttons last night - I am not risking such a situation over a heavily populated area. So my opinion is I agree with the logic, but the circumstances last night would have led me to issue the tornado warning.

Fair enough and understand your point completely.

[SOONER8693]

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.

A little after 9, I looked at the radar, and the line of continuous t-storms stretched from the northern border of Nebraska, thru Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, almost to the Rio Grande. About 70-90 miles wide, unbroken. Very impressive.

[ou48A]

FYI

We need to move on to Friday’s potential

[turnpup]

The timing was a bit off, but when they originally forecasted the storms to enter the west metro at 5pm, that's what everyone was basing decisions on. I let my folks go a little early yesterday, if those storms that rolled through at 8pm had hit at 5pm, it wasn't worth having my folks trying to drive home in that crap.

Yes. I think that was the motivation behind many of the early closings—to not have the highways jam-packed at rush hour and people getting caught in it. My kid's school cancelled after-care, even though they have a brand-new state of the art building that doubles as a safe house. It would appear that they were thinking about everybody driving home.

For me, I was happy to be able to get her, get home and know that we were all safe together and could just walk down to our basement if need be. It did seem like much ado about nothing, but I could see it being really awful if people *hadn't* taken their precautions and then the storms were as bad as they had the potential to be. It's a tough call. Maybe a balance can be struck for future storms.

[Jersey Boss]

Most of this discussion should go into the Oklahoma Media Coverage thread.

Looking ahead now, there is a similar system coming through on Friday. This one looks to be not as complex as Tuesday's setup, but still pretty hairy to forecast.

Right now it looks like triple point type of setup in W OK or maybe as far west as eastern TX PH. Moisture return will have a lot to do with quality of cells, but it bears watching the next few days as the event is only about 60 hours out.

Exactly. Mods could you move all the discussion about the local television presenters to the media forum?

[jn1780]

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.

Yeah, I don't know what they saw to make them decided to go with the PDS. Maybe if that first tornado watch was smaller and contained to western Oklahoma.

In regards to the definition of bust? Yes, I still say it was a bust based on what the a moderate risk was based on: Hail. There wasn't really that many large hail reports across the whole moderate risk region. That's not saying the moderate risk wasn't justified though.