General Weather Discussion - December, 2015

[OKCisOK4me]

I find that the weather channel is lacking. I dont even use them as an app on my phone...

[Anonymous.]

I am only estimating based upon experience and the latest radar and model trends. It is still possible a huge swath of dry air can come in and tear up the system. This is why these winter storms are so difficult to forecast, it is almost impossible to get it right based upon data alone. You have to use radar trends and constant model guidance to get an idea of what is actually possible.

And right now, the possibility of heavy snowfall to occur over W, C, and N OK is there - when just 24 hours ago, it looked like a blizzard for the panhandles and SW Kansas. Now those places aren't even under any type of watch or warning, things change constantly. And predicting snowbands is probably one of the most frustrating things to do.

Anyways, currently the low is still churning along, moving very slowly across TX. Freezing drizzle is falling over much of the OKC metro, especially western sides.

One thing I want to point out, is the atmosphere is favorable to sleet right now, the air column isn't cooled all the way up yet, so we could have a layer of sleet falling on top of the already ice and sleet covered surfaces, then followed by snow. Also more sleet means less snow amounts.

Right now I have no clue as to how much snow could fall in OKC, models suck @ predicting snow/sleet/ice zones.

[OKCRT]

I am only estimating based upon experience and the latest radar and model trends. It is still possible a huge swath of dry air can come in and tear up the system. This is why these winter storms are so difficult to forecast, it is almost impossible to get it right based upon data alone. You have to use radar trends and constant model guidance to get an idea of what is actually possible.

And right now, the possibility of heavy snowfall to occur over W, C, and N OK is there - when just 24 hours ago, it looked like a blizzard for the panhandles and SW Kansas. Now those places aren't even under any type of watch or warning, things change constantly. And predicting snowbands is probably one of the most frustrating things to do.

Anyways, currently the low is still churning along, moving very slowly across TX. Freezing drizzle is falling over much of the OKC metro, especially western sides.

One thing I want to point out, is the atmosphere is favorable to sleet right now, the air column isn't cooled all the way up yet, so we could have a layer of sleet falling on top of the already ice and sleet covered surfaces, then followed by snow. Also more sleet means less snow amounts.

Right now I have no clue as to how much snow could fall in OKC, models suck @ predicting snow/sleet/ice zones.

I did catch a break in regular programming and Mike Morgan I thought said 10+ inches and he was sticking with it. I don't know what to believe and every time I look at the weather channel on the PC it changes. Now they have 1-3 inches and when I checked a couple hrs. ago it said less than an inch. So it appears that no one really knows what's going to come of this. Lets just hope MM is correct and we get huge snow without the ice. NikonNurse will be happy and we can quit talking about the Dry Slot. Now back to Football. Thanks for all the help.

[NikonNurse]

I am not the one that came up with the Dry Slot but it does appear that OKC is in the DRY SLOT right now. Maybe we will wake up in the morning with 10+ inches of snow as the DRY SLOT leaves us behind. But then again maybe the DRY SLOT hangs around. Weather channel has less than 1 inch in OKC.

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

[OKCRT]

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

Haha. Well I just looked at radar again and sure enough,it does appear that OKC is in a dry slot. People get cabin fever if the weather gets bad for a couple days. They just have to get out even if they have no place to go. But I just just got a text that Chan 5 is reporting around 3 inches of snow so maybe the ER won't be too busy because of this storm. So from everywhere I have checked MM is the only one predicting record breaking snow. I don't know if he's changed that prediction from earlier in the day but I haven't heard anyone else predicting that.

[Anonymous.]

MD that is current. Basically warmer air is coming in just above the surface, and it is causing surface temps to rise slightly. Also this warmer air above will favor freezing rain.



CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 272155Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH 02Z.

DISCUSSION...A TRANSITION REGION WITH MIXED WINTER P-TYPES SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF W TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN N
TX...AND SWRN INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH 02Z AROUND THE ERN HALF OF A
CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IN TX. TO THE W OF
THE MCD AREA...MAINLY SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. TO
THE E OF THE VERY SLOWLY SWD MOVING SFC WET-BULB FREEZING LINE...
MAINLY RAIN SHOULD FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TX BIG COUNTRY WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE MOVING NWD INTO THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN N TX. RECENT SFC OBS ACROSS THIS REGION
INDICATE A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING
AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT ACTS ON HYDROMETEORS FALLING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL OK. PER RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BE CONFINED CLOSE TO/JUST W OF THE SFC WET-BULB
FREEZING LINE...WITH SLEET/SLOW MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH WWD EXTENT
ACROSS THE MCD AREA GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT/A LESS
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE. WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...RATES MAY
EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS.

..GLEASON.. 12/27/2015

[Achilleslastand]

The latest from Mike Morgan........
https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR

Now: 8PM Powers flashes west Metro/ W. OK. Continue....Powerless # climbing. Perfect Meteorlogical Track OKC Ice/S+

[baralheia]

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.

[Anonymous.]

You are correct. The NAM has been spot on for this entire event. Latest model data from NAM shows more of an icing and sleet event as opposed to snow.

Right now things are going downhill quick, at least in the N. Metro. I am in Edmond right now and can hear and see powerflashes. Not sure if it is from the wind blowing branches and powerlines, or from ice weighing them down etc. (probably a combination). Currently moderate freezing drizzle and light snow mix.

This icing will continue to take place, right now the metro is barely hanging onto 32F. The warm air aloft is trying its hardest to warm the surface layer, but it has failed all day.

Right now the low is starting its eastern and northeastern journey across TX. We will have to monitor how the precipitation bands come in overnight as the entire low will travel directly over Central OK. There will be multiple dryslots, and multiple heavy bands of precipitation.

[OKCRT]

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.

OKC-Dry Slot. Appears much to do about nothing.

[baralheia]

Honestly, if someone was totally in agreement with the NAM model, all the way up to the latest run, such a prediction would fall right in line with the forecast model. Forecasting is an imperfect science... Almost closer to an art. You're making an educated guess based upon the data available to you. Sometimes you get it wrong. As others have said, winter weather is notoriously difficult to predict. That is absolutely no reason to resort to name calling.

[Eddie1]

Is it not true that we have some of the best meteorologist in the country here at least I have read that somewhere. I think they do a great job overall.

[Anonymous.]

What a crazy storm. The low is still tracking east near Dallas now. If it starts the turn north/northwest, C OK will see some decent snow this morning. But this thing was supposed to turn north about 5 hours ago.

Could have a snow deformation zone setup near I-35 if the thing spins north like models predicted, but as of now, just a guessing game with where this thing wants to go. lol...

[Anonymous.]

Okay about 45 minutes from last post. It appears the turn has begun, could get some heavy snowfall totals right along I-35 corridor this morning. This may not be over just yet.

[Anonymous.]

Okay another hour gone by. Low still tracking more east than north. Wrap-around sleet/snow could dissolve and reset itself over eastern OK.

Forecast was for ghis thing to "unwind" itself and push the precipitation out north and west. So far everything has been about eastward movement.

[OKCMallen]

Okay another hour gone by. Low still tracking more east than north. Wrap-around sleet/snow could dissolve and reset itself over eastern OK.

Forecast was for ghis thing to "unwind" itself and push the precipitation out north and west. So far everything has been about eastward movement.

Thanks for the updates. Appreciated.

[okatty]

Shocked at how bad some of the streets are this morning. Guess I shouldn't be, but Hefner Parkway sheet of ice. Very dangerous! Be safe people!

[TU 'cane]

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

Ok, this was just down right funny because it's so true.

An update from up the turnpike: Tulsa city roads are in fair to poor condition, of course it just depends if it's been treated (which none were on my way to work in South Tulsa). Lots of standing water that has been blocked by thick swaths of sleet and ice. I'd say the roads were staying mildly covered with the slick stuff. But, thankfully people were driving slower than normal and keeping their distance when at the intersections.

[baralheia]

Yeah, most of the city streets on my drive in from the south side of OKC were just a sheet of ice. I-35 wasn't terrible, but except for right around the Dallas Junction (I-40/I-35/I-235) the roads did not appear to have been treated at all.

I do have to admit I'm rather disappointed the low tracked the way it did. I wanted some snow! Instead, the snow skipped right over central OK and went farther east :P Oh well, there's still plenty of winter left yet.

[Pete]

It's eerie how few cars on the roads downtown.

[bchris02]

Western is covered in a sheet of ice but Classen is in pretty good condition.

[Anonymous.]

Roads are pretty bad, for some reason the neighborhood roads are better than the main roads, at least in Edmond. I think what happened, is the slush and melting from cars on the main roads, refroze as a skating rink.

[FritterGirl]

Western is covered in a sheet of ice but Classen is in pretty good condition.

I took it all the way from north 178th to downtown OKC on my way to work this morning. Wasn't bad at all then. Has it worsened?

[okatty]

Everything has improved from what I can tell from early this AM. Had no problems a few mins ago other than normal neighborhood issues but the main streets are good to go for now. May ice over again tonight some.

A FOOT of rain in some places in Eastern Okla. Amazing.

[Bunty]

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.

Is it true that Mike Morgan does not have a degree in meteorology?