General Weather Discussion - October 2015

[Bunty]

I'll start October 2015 weather discussion.

Interesting how the weather turned out last night, Oct 1. Channel 4's Mike Morgan showed a projected precip map with heaviest activity taking place in western Oklahoma. But not much of anything developed there overnight. Instead, heavy rain formed in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma early Thursday morning and moved SSE in a narrow north to south band. As a result, cloudbursts came forth like cars on a train. Fortunately, little, if any, in the way of severe weather came with it. Also missing it was the NWS forecast for northern Oklahoma, which gave no chance of rain as of the wee hours of Thursday morning. Among the heaviest rain amounts was in north and east Stillwater with nearly 2 inches. Highs only in the 70s until getting into the 80s on Tuesday.

[okatty]

Not really "our" weather, but Hurricane Joaquin is a Cat 4 now. Will be a wild weather weekend along East coast. Already re-scheduling college football game times (Michigan at Maryland moved from night to Noon game Sat).

[SoonerDave]

Okay, Anon (or anyone else)...

I realize this is not a purely OK weather request, but given that this is RRS (OU-Texas) week, I was wondering what the ol' crystal ball was indicating for the Friday drive from OKC to Dallas, and for the game Saturday. I took a cursory look over the weekend that suggested some late-week rain was in the offing, but nothing specific beyond that.

Thanks #Boomer

[Anonymous.]

Right now that timeframe is only inclusive for GFS, and it is cloudy with temps in the mid to upper 70s for Friday and Saturday along I-35.

Side note, long-term GFS has a [comical] arctic blast coming through around Oct 20 with a winterstorm for the southern plains.

[LakeEffect]

Right now that timeframe is only inclusive for GFS, and it is cloudy with temps in the mid to upper 70s for Friday and Saturday along I-35.

Side note, long-term GFS has a [comical] arctic blast coming through around Oct 20 with a winterstorm for the southern plains.

I love a good comedy!

Never say never. Now you've gotten my hopes up.

[BG918]

Not really "our" weather, but Hurricane Joaquin is a Cat 4 now. Will be a wild weather weekend along East coast. Already re-scheduling college football game times (Michigan at Maryland moved from night to Noon game Sat).

This was interesting to watch unfold. The ensemble of American models including the much-talked-about-here GFS had this hurricane plowing straight into the NE urban corridor from Chesapeake Bay to Connecticut. Such a scenario with a storm as strong and moving as slow as Joaquin would've been absolutely catastrophic. But the European model showed the storm curving out to sea from the beginning and the media never took the bait, even though the NHC showed the west moving scenario in their forecasts until a couple days out. Sure enough Joaquin curved out to sea. This isn't the first time the EURO has been more accurate than the GFS ..

[John1744]

This was interesting to watch unfold. The ensemble of American models including the much-talked-about-here GFS had this hurricane plowing straight into the NE urban corridor from Chesapeake Bay to Connecticut. Such a scenario with a storm as strong and moving as slow as Joaquin would've been absolutely catastrophic. But the European model showed the storm curving out to sea from the beginning and the media never took the bait, even though the NHC showed the west moving scenario in their forecasts until a couple days out. Sure enough Joaquin curved out to sea. This isn't the first time the EURO has been more accurate than the GFS ..

David Payne actually made a comment a few days ago on the air that just from amateurish studying of it, he believe it was also going to curve back out to sea, he made sure to point that out tonight at 6pm that he called it correctly.

[SoonerDave]

David Payne actually made a comment a few days ago on the air that just from amateurish studying of it, he believe it was also going to curve back out to sea, he made sure to point that out tonight at 6pm that he called it correctly.

I think there was quite a bit of discussion on this in some of the meteorological circles - the fact that the European model nailed it, while GFS was just wrong, and lots of discussion about how the Euro was probably going to be right from the outset. Seems as though the Euro was the outlier, while some of the other models (GFS among them) had the east-coast solution.

I obviously don't know enough to comment intelligently about either one, but it *does* point out the fact that these things are just mathematical models converted into computer code, and biased by how various kinds of data are weighted, and that's still controlled by some oxygen-nitrogen-breathing person. For all the computer-based analysis we have, weather forecasting still is anything but a science

[SoonerDave]

Right now that timeframe is only inclusive for GFS, and it is cloudy with temps in the mid to upper 70s for Friday and Saturday along I-35.

Side note, long-term GFS has a [comical] arctic blast coming through around Oct 20 with a winterstorm for the southern plains.

Noticed that the data this morning seems to suggest the low in So. Cal is getting cut off from the jetstream, and is thus likely to meander out west this week. While there still seems to be at least a low POP Friday, looks like the current assessment for the weekend is dry...

[LakeEffect]

I think there was quite a bit of discussion on this in some of the meteorological circles - the fact that the European model nailed it, while GFS was just wrong, and lots of discussion about how the Euro was probably going to be right from the outset. Seems as though the Euro was the outlier, while some of the other models (GFS among them) had the east-coast solution.

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast: Why U.S. Weather Model Has Fallen Behind: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/up...gain.html?_r=1

[Anonymous.]

Rain chances appear to be increasing slightly for Friday morning/afternoon. Any rain will be short-lived and likely lighter in nature, but the chance is up from previous runs.

[Achilleslastand]

Are we really going to be in the low 90s or upper/mid 80s close to the middle of October. Didn't think this was possible due to the lesser amounts of daylight left. Anythoos be gone summer once and for all.

[Bunty]

Are we really going to be in the low 90s or upper/mid 80s close to the middle of October. Didn't think this was possible due to the lesser amounts of daylight left. Anythoos be gone summer once and for all.

I'll hate it more if November and December turn out colder than normal.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Are we really going to be in the low 90s or upper/mid 80s close to the middle of October. Didn't think this was possible due to the lesser amounts of daylight left. Anythoos be gone summer once and for all.

It feels like it cools off really quickly. I can actually walk my dog before dinner now without passing out. This isn't too bad.

[turnpup]

It feels like it cools off really quickly. I can actually walk my dog before dinner now without passing out. This isn't too bad.

Yeah, the evenings have been fantastic, and we've also been having some beautiful sunsets lately.

[Anonymous.]

The low dewpoints in the fall allow for air temperatures to quickly cool once the sun goes down under clear skies.

This is why we are having such sporadically chilly mornings, pending on peaks and valleys - you can hit pockets of air where it swings up and down by as much as 10-15 degrees.

[zookeeper]

Yeah, the evenings have been fantastic, and we've also been having some beautiful sunsets lately.

Yes, the evenings have been absolutely perfect. Last night it was not only a perfect temperature, but there was zero wind. Crisp and still. Nice.

[Easy180]

My kids are loving this weather. Put in an inground pool last month and they are still swimming in it.

[Anonymous.]

Weak low pressure system moves across area tonight, GFS sparks off a few light showers, would be lucky to get anything.

Temperatures look amazing for the next couple weeks. Better rain chances coming in middle of next week. Very long-term still, but as of now Halloween weekend looks like it could be on the cooler side.

[Anonymous.]

Slight chance of a few passing showers (light) tomorrow. Otherwise great weather until the weekend.

Friday-Sunday looks like a classic fall system through the southern plains. As of now, models bring first wave through Friday evening, then small dry period for Saturday, with Sunday being wet again.

GFS paints 2-4 inches over most of the state.


Halloween weekend still up in the air, GFS puts a storm in the area around that time.

[Bunty]

As of early Thursday morning most of the Oklahoma panhandle has had between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Central Oklahoma will likely see the rain hold off until Thursday afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Watch - INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY
Updated: Wed Oct-21-15 10:19pm CDT
Effective: Wed Oct-21-15 10:19pm CDT
Expires: Fri Oct-23-15 01:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...flash flood watch late tonight through friday afternoon...
.a large storm system will move through the southern plains tonight through friday...bringing widespread rain. Some of the rain will be locally heavy...with a risk of flash flooding. Rain will begin in the western border areas of oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north texas tonight...then spread slowly east thursday and friday.
...flash flood watch remains in effect through friday afternoon...
The flash flood watch continues for
* the western two-thirds of oklahoma and all of western north texas.
* through friday afternoon
* heavy rainfall is expected. Widespread amounts around 1 to 3 inches are likely with locally heavier amounts leading to flash flooding. The highest rain totals are expected over western and southern oklahoma...and western north texas.
* do drive through areas where water covers the roadway. Turn around...dont drown.

[Achilleslastand]

Is the Metro area done with rainfall? If so this was far from Flash Flood Watch worthy.

[ljbab728]

Is the Metro area done with rainfall? If so this was far from Flash Flood Watch worthy.

So you're disappointed that the metro didn't have any flooding? LOL
It's like when we have tornado watches. It just means the conditions will be present that tornados could result. It doesn't mean we will have tornados.

[ljbab728]

nm

[Achilleslastand]

So you're disappointed that the metro didn't have any flooding? LOL
It's like when we have tornado watches. It just means the conditions will be present that tornados could result. It doesn't mean we will have tornados.

No, I did expect more rainfall though.