General Weather Discussion - May 2015

[SomeGuy]

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.

[Of Sound Mind]

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.

You mean local stations like the National Weather Service?

[SoonerDave]

When Chan Guffey, city editor of The Oklahoman, dumped the Weather Beat onto my shoulders some 60 years ago, on my first trip out to the Weather Bureau office on the second floor of a hangar at the old Will Rogers Field I borrowed a couple of textbooks from the chief -- who, we discovered many years later, was a not-too-distant cousin of mine -- and from those, picked up the rudiments of meteorology as known at that time. It was nowhere near what we all take for granted today. The whole theory of "fronts" was only about a dozen years old!

One of those textbooks said, in total seriousness, that the most accurate way to forecast tomorrow's weather was to look up what had happened on the same day a year earlier. The general weather patterns were sufficiently cyclical that this method had a "better than even" chance of being accurate!

That same textbook went on to say that forecasters should remain in one area for most of their careers, since they would soon learn to "sense" the patterns for that area and their predictions would become more accurate.

And it was not until 1948 that anyone was able to predict, with any accuracy at all, the likelihood of a tornado. Two weather officers at Tinker had become fascinated by the storms, and found a pattern of temperature and humidity that seemed to be common to most of them. One spring day in 1948 they realized that that exact pattern was present, and convinced the commanding general to put the base on alert. That minimized the damage when the storm swept the flight line late in the afternoon.

Such forecasts quickly became the norm for the military, but civilian services still did not issue them for fear of panicking the populace. Finally, Tom Kyle decided that possible panic was acceptable if a warning could save lives, especially after the Woodward and Blackwell disasters, and issued a warning next time conditions warranted. Sure enough, the storm hit, and his warning was credited with drastically reducing the toll. Warnings became standard procedure.

Tom also showed me the notorious "hook echo" on their radar, but warned me NOT to publicize its existence -- again, for fear of panic. The hook had been discovered in the South Pacific during the late months of WW2 and was known to radar techs all over, but was not then --nor is it today--proof of a twister on the ground. It only shows you that dangerous circulation exists.

So don't be too leery of learning more about weather and its vagaries. Even the top pros are still learning a lot! And the more they learn, the more they discover we don't know.

Jim, I swear we must be cousins. First I find we have a common interest in SW dev, writing, and then weather. The job you had studying weather and writing a column about it would have been awesome. I'd love to know if they need any developers with the NWS down in Norman. As a kid who grew up in Oklahoma and was terrified of Spring weather, I overcame it by learning about it, and that "self-education" is probably why I have so little patience for those in the TV weather trade that feed on fear and hype. Heck, if someone came up with a job combining computers, weather, and writing, I'd be all over it!!

[jn1780]

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.

Its not hype just reporting that there is a moderate risk. I'm just surprised they haven't starting issuing their own high risk for Saturday yet...which would be hype.

Too be fair, NWS Norman went ahead and filled in the gaps between the two enhanced areas yesterday while the official SPC outlook did not, but I imagine it would have been confusing to the public if they talked about a south enhance risk and a north enhance risk.

[Jim Kyle]

I'm just surprised they haven't starting issuing their own high risk for Saturday yet...which would be hype.

Jed, on Channel 9, did have a graphic up about 8 a.m. showing maximum risk for Saturday, but he didn't emphasize it a lot and I've not heard any more about it as the day has progressed...

[ou48A]

What are the odds of the SPC upgrading Saturdays risk to high and also labeling it a particularly dangerous situation?
It certainly looks like those possibility exist?

[venture]

What are the odds of the SPC upgrading Saturdays risk to high and also labeling it a particularly dangerous situation?
It certainly looks like those possibility exist?

Well a high risk would be a PDS, so they kinda go hand in hand.

All will depend on evolution of storms from Friday. I'm pretty much expecting Saturday to go High Risk somewhere though.

[tfvc.org]

According to a News Ogle, K4, Gov. Fallin is reminding us to be "Weather Aware"

Dang. I wish I'da already considered that.

(side--not iso--bar): I recently encountered a "person of color" with a Florida tag on the car at the local Love's gas pumps. It was Saturday, exactly at Noon. The Sirens went off on a nearly cloudless day. He was so flustered--and looking around at the sky--that he had to ask me, "Wha'???!!!" All I could say was: "It's Oklahoma. And it's OK. Saturday, at noon they sound the sirens." He breathed a sigh of relief and said, 'Thanks . . . I couldn't make any sense out of all that." I resisted the urge to say, "It could have been worse . . . It might have been The Russians carrying out a Nuclear Strike." I figured that a noob to OK, from FLA, already had to deal with hurricanes and 'gators so I didn't want to increase his stress level.

This should probably be on a different thread regarding Storm Sirens . . .
Yet the specific location is difficult to Pintrest.

He must not be from an area that gets many hurricanes. They test the sirens there around the same day and time.

[venture]

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southern love county in southern oklahoma...

* until 815 pm cdt

* at 741 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near gainesville...moving north at 25 mph.

Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

Source...radar indicated rotation.

Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* locations impacted include...
Marietta and thackerville.

[venture]

Large Wedge tornado moving through Cooke County Texas towards Valley View north towards Gainesville and evening Thackerville. LLJ is on.

[ultimatesooner]

Holy Hail in Colorado Springs today

[OKCisOK4me]

Conditions do not seem favorable for redevelopment and training along I40. What's the latest update for overnight?

[Anonymous.]

Atmosphere is relatively stabilized now. If things start out clear skies tomorrow, could be a serious day.

[ultimatesooner]

lucky me, I'm in liberal KS tonight and get to drive back to OKC tomorrow

[Dessert Fox]

Are things tomorrow looking more Western Oklahoma, in terms of the tornado threat?

[jn1780]

Are things tomorrow looking more Western Oklahoma, in terms of the tornado threat?

Everyone in the moderate or enhance area should stay aware of conditions. I don't think the NWS should be have a four level scale regarding tornado potential. As we all know storms have no regard to imaginary lines humans draw on maps, but I know they felt pressure to have their own graphic since the media does.

Yesterday, was a crazy day and that was considered a "Low tornado potential" day according to the NWS Norman graphic.

[Tydude]

KOCOdamonlane: Oklahoma: Tomorrow will be one of those days that you do not want to be on the roads between 4-6pm. Tornado threat is high.

[venture]

00Z NAM just about done running.

Needless to say. You are going to hear hype go overload starting tonight. Do not panic. Do not get scared. Get prepared and know what to do. NAM is painting a picture that is quite significant and it could also lead to night time tornadoes in the metro area. We might see some early crapvection storms spread over, ignore those. Main show kicks off along the dryline in the West. We could see a few isolated sups spawn ahead of this main area. All of this by 3-5PM tomorrow. Some are forecast to move NE while the main line of sups out west will move east. This main line should be in the Metro area by 8-9PM. They should be out of here by 11PM. Some pictures to go along...



Forecast sounding for 7PM over Norman. This is what we call textbook for rotating tornadic storms. On the right side has the near perfect wind pattern as you go up in height. Looking at the numbers, instability is high, LI is well up there (or down rather I guess), SWEAT is high, 0-1km Shear is pretty high, really...this is a pretty text book sounding. We'll see how it evolves.

Stay aware...don't get all worried and just be ready. After all of these big outbreaks we've had in the past, casualties are still amazingly low and people survive these without any the ideal safety rooms. So don't even worry about that.

[OKCisOK4me]

Is there a dense fog creeping into the city from the NW? I'm certain that's what I'm seeing from my balcony.

[silvergrove]

Is there a dense fog creeping into the city from the NW? I'm certain that's what I'm seeing from my balcony.

It appears so: https://twitter.com/stephenlocke/sta...47265986166785

[venture]

Day 1 Moderate Risk shifted to mostly SW 1/4th of OK. It is almost bordered perfectly by I-40 on the North and I-35 on the East.

Highest tornado risk is at 10% and this is actually offset slightly further east coverage the entire OKC metro and back to the South.

Giant hail threat is at 45% in the Moderate Risk area.

05Z HRRR paints a nice complicated and annoying picture that usually comes with these days. Some garbage showers possible to form around 5AM with storm initiation just after daybreak in West Texas. These are projected to form into a complex and march northeast. Additional cells form north of it into Western OK. Storms approach the far western metro area by Noon. They pass through by 4PM. Latest RAP run doesn't do the early initiation. GFS also holds the storms off until about Noon in the Panhandles. NAM, as described earlier, is more inline with GFS. So we get to figure out if HRRR is out to lunch or if there is something to it.

Even if HRRR pans out, it still brings through rotating storms...

[bchris02]

So is this looking like potentially another instance of storms firing in SW OK and moving up the H.E Bailey into the metro area?

[bandnerd]

Still holding out hope that we can have our picnic today. But I'm feeling doubtful. I don't want to be a whistle-blower, but I also don't want us to all get trapped in a potentially dangerous situation. It could be sunny and fine here while some other place is under the gun. Ugh.

I just want to have some fun, man. Why you gotta ruin that, weather? *shakes fist at sky, but not too much so as to not anger it any more*

[Anonymous.]

SPC trimming MODERATE back even more now, 10% TOR is basically SW and SC OK into NC TX.

Pretty thick deck of clouds over most of the area. We'll see how/if this burns off.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR suggesting things could be a little more messy and not as organized (isolated). Kind of like yesterday across NW TX.