General Weather Discussion - April 2015

[venture]

Next round moving in...

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Beckham, Roger Mills [OK] till 8:15 PM CDT

[yukong]

From my view of the different radar apps I have...I don't see anything in Oklahoma that appears to be headed for the metro. Are we still expected to get strong stuff later tonight?

[John1744]

KFOR's last breakin still had a moderate risk of severe weather in the metro around 10PM tonight.

[venture]

Tornado Warning Custer County. Very large lowering/funnel in the lightning.

[venture]

Destructive storm moving entering Dewey and Custer counties. 3 inch hail and winds over 75 mph confirmed with this storm.

For the Metro, watch the line south of Childress. It is moving ENE and building a bit to the north. That will be what gets us if anything does.

[venture]

Severe weather pretty much done for the night. Some rain and storms moving up from the Southwest will gives us a little rain and noise here soon. Don't worry about it, enjoy the free water.

Next round of severe weather looks to be on Sunday then again mid next week. Spring isn't slowing down yet.

[Anonymous.]

Remember, storms don't care about "zones" and "categories".

[jn1780]

Remember, storms don't care about "zones" and "categories".

Hmm, NWS not having a good year so far. Zero tornados in the moderate risk zone. 1 tornado in the enhanced risk zone.

[LakeEffect]

Rain!

[okatty]

Rain!

That would be FANTASTIC! Bring it on!

[Bobby821]

What is the next chance of severe storms looking like for Sunday and middle of next week?

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

Today: Severe weather still possible in the state today over SE OK along the cold front as it pushes through.

Friday: Quiet.

Saturday: Instability and moisture returns, some marginal stuff at best in the state.

Sunday: Instability kicks back up into high gear, but forcing is weak, the wind fields are a mess, and all around not much is really being projected to develop - at least on NAM. GFS is much different. Good instability, wind fields that aren't all over the place, and decent parameters for a severe weather day. It also develops storms between US 183 and US 81 by 7PM ahead of the dryline. Then by 10PM a large complex of storms or a squall line would form up along the cold front and crash down through the state. Initial activity would have all modes possible, then transition to a wind threat later. Again - models disagree so take it with a bucket of salt.

More later once GFS is done.

[corwin1968]

Woke up around 2:00-3:00 am to lightening, rolling thunder and howling wind. My wife asked me to open the bedroom window, which I did. I then ventured into the living room and heard a loud thumping coming from the laundry room so I went to investigate and found that the panel for accessing the attic from within the house was literally being sucked up from it's resting place. I was afraid it was going to get sucked completely up but luckily, there was enough friction to keep it in place. I checked the news and they were saying wind gusts to 40mph. I closed the window and went back to bed.

This morning, I let the dogs out and noticed a full size trampoline in the pond! The backyard it would have come from has a four foot iron fence. I think 40mph winds was a little conservative.

[SoonerDave]

So are we saying Saturday looks like rain, but severe stuff not particularly likely, or just muggy with not much chance for rain until late(r) in the day?

Just trying to plan some yardwork

[venture]

Severe weather not really looking like a major issue for almost the next 2 weeks. A few days could get a little crazy, but models haven't locked in on anything worth mentioning now.

Today - Chance of some storms late in the SW. Severe risk very low.

Saturday - Marginal Risk for the panhandle.

Sunday - Marginal Risk for Norther OK. Might see an upgrade to Slight as we get closer.

[venture]

But you promised!

I know...I'm a terrible person. LOL Still some marginal stuff this weekend possible. Mid week doesn't look like much of anything. Gulf gets scoured out with that front which closes things down for a bit. Of course...always subject to change and it is April.

[jn1780]

But you promised!

It will be May soon enough. The real show then begins or it will be quiet like last year.

[venture]

It will be May soon enough. The real show then begins or it will be quiet like last year.

If you believe the long range CFS models...it might be pretty quiet around Central OK. You can see it by going to: COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data click on Weather Analysis Tools > Numerical Models > CFSv2

I don't put a ton of stock into it since things change so rapidly, but just looking at last night's 00Z run...potential severe days coming up for somewhere in the state:

April 12 - Panhandle
April 14 - S OK
April 16 - W OK
April 24 - W & C OK
April 26 - S OK
April 27 - S OK
May 6 - SW OK
May 7 - S OK
May 11 - SW OK
May 14 - W OK

[Anonymous.]

Sunday night through Tuesday looks like solid chances of rain.

Projections for 7 day totals are over 2" for most of the state.

[Of Sound Mind]

I've voting for the latter.

[jccouger]

Can you give any projections on rain for Saturday & Sunday as far as time of day? I desperately need a long running day for my training for the memorial marathon & I need to know when I can be outside for 3-4 hours.

[venture]

Can you give any projections on rain for Saturday & Sunday as far as time of day? I desperately need a long running day for my training for the memorial marathon & I need to know when I can be outside for 3-4 hours.

Looking at NAM...Saturday afternoon might be pretty dry around here. Sunday is coming in dry on it now as well...but things always subject to change.

[jccouger]

Looking at NAM...Saturday afternoon might be pretty dry around here. Sunday is coming in dry on it now as well...but things always subject to change.

Thank you so much! I know Oklahoma needs the rain, but I need to be a little selfish right now lol I hope your projections hold true!

[venture]

Panhandles upgraded to a Slight Risk for today. For Sunday Marginal Risk expanded to include more of NW OK now.

[venture]

Good batch of showers and storms moving through this morning. Heavy rain and small hail will be the main stories with these today.