General Weather Discussion - April 2015

[LocoAko]

Here is the uncalibrated 00Z NSSL WRF probability for a tornado within 25 miles of a point, FWIW (not to be taken literally with placement and/or percentages!). Seems to agree people well with the current outlook boundaries. An Enid -- Wichita -- Tulsa triangle seems to be the area with the biggest threat today.

[PennyQuilts]

Would you elaborate in a sentence or two of the significance/reason for multiple rounds? If it's too complicated to break down in a few words, no worries. Thanks, regardless.

[venture]

12Z HRRR...

Scattered storms developing over SW OK and near the US 183 corridor in Western OK by 12PM. Most of these should all move off to the NE of the Metro by 5PM. A few could get grumpy but should all be elevated.

At 5PM next round fires over SW OK and in NW OK. These would start coming into the Metro around 8PM and will probably be the most severe stuff for today. Storms will probably continue most of the evening, but the leading batch will probably be the most severe.

Tornado risk goes up this evening with the LLJ kicking in, so we'll have to keep an eye on any organized supercells at that time.

[venture]

Starting to get development in western North Texas now...one cell south of Childress and another down to the NE of Abilene.

Edit - Add SW OK to the mix now...north of Mangum.

[Bobby821]

Do we know yet what the storms for this weekend and next week are looking like? high end Severe like today? I have to work until 4:00 pm Saturday so trying to decide if I should work from home or go in.

[venture]

Do we know yet what the storms for this weekend and next week are looking like? high end Severe like today? I have to work until 4:00 pm Saturday so trying to decide if I should work from home or go in.

Nothing to worry about right now...and I wouldn't worry about something until we are much closer considering how much of a bear it has been to get these last few days right.

[venture]

Radar update of the non-severe storms in SW OK...

[venture]

Storm SW of Roosevelt moving NE maybe some very small hail with it now. Same for the storm just north of Cordell.

[venture]

OUN will be launching a special balloon today at 3PM.

[venture]

...significant weather advisory for southeastern harmon...comanche...
Greer...western canadian...northwestern grady...cotton...caddo...
Eastern custer...blaine...western kingfisher...kiowa...southeastern
beckham...tillman...southeastern dewey...jackson...wa****a...
Northwestern clay...wilbarger...northwestern baylor...wichita...
Southeastern foard...northeastern knox and southeastern hardeman
counties until 1215 pm cdt...

At 1113 am cdt...scattered showers and some thunderstorms were along
a line extending from 5 miles southeast of arapaho to near clinton
and altus oklahoma... To near vernon... To 10 miles northwest of
lake kemp texas...moving northeast at 45 mph.

Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...

[SoonerDave]

Venture, am I correct in picking up a sense that there's a bit of heightened concerned about possible overnight storms, given the new enhanced risk area covering the metro and the special weather balloon? Or is that just coincident timing?

[venture]

Venture, am I correct in picking up a sense that there's a bit of heightened concerned about possible overnight storms, given the new enhanced risk area covering the metro and the special weather balloon? Or is that just coincident timing?

There is going to be greater threat for rotating storms with the late afternoon activity that fires off the dryline. When this stuff moves in late this evening, the low level jet will kick up and conditions will be a bit more favorable for them to spin some.

[Rixon75]

I just found this weather forum today. Just wanted to say this a great stuff! Thanks to those providing the info.

[venture]

15Z HRRR showing late afternoon activity will start to have more of a spin potential with it...

[Easy180]

Let's hope the strong cap wins out today. Hopefully it ate it's Wheaties this morning lol

[Anonymous.]

After this early afternoon garbage convection, it looks like skies will clear behind. Leaving the stage for lots of fuel. Skies are already mostly clear immediately west of the ongoing convection.

[LocoAko]

Up to a moderate risk in N OK/S KS with a 15% hatched tornado area.

Relevant for our area:

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
LONGER-LIVED...DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS EVE THROUGH
LATE TNGT NEAR AND ENE OF SFC WAVE TRACKING ENE ACROSS S CNTRL KS
AND ADJACENT NRN OK/W CNTRL MO. GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LVL FLOW LIKELY
WILL APPRECIABLY/STRENGTHEN GIVEN BOTH TIME OF DAY AND THE
FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF BAJA JET MAX...THE CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LOW-LVL HODOGRAPH LENGTH AND CURVATURE COULD YIELD AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. MORE ISOLD TSTMS WITH A
RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED SSWD
ALONG DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL TX.

[venture]

SPC has upgraded Northern OK to a Moderate Risk. Rest of the risk areas remain unchanged. MDT risk area has 15% tornado chance.

[Anonymous.]

Moderate upgrade for extreme NC and NE OK.

[PennyQuilts]

I just found this weather forum today. Just wanted to say this a great stuff! Thanks to those providing the info.

This is the best place and Venture also has a weather site for exciting times.

[Anonymous.]

Basic afternoon setup.

[mblackwell]

For those of you who are new here and don't know, Venture has a chat room available here: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage

A bunch of us gather in there on days like today, and Venture always does a great job analyzing storms and tracking conditions. Good stuff!

[judysue]

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

[John1744]

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

The image in question:



Also the NWS is now up to 3 weather Youtube briefings for today and it's barely noon. They are definitely pushing the stay aware today message heavily.

[SoonerDave]

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

That's only a fraction off the infuriating "TORCON" index that the Weather Channel puts out. Stick with what you see here and what folks like the NWS issue, and just stay aware.

Given that dryline/boundary setup, that 'triple point' up there in S. Kansas with all this instability explains why they've upgraded N. Cen OK to "moderate risk." While clearly central OK could see some stuff later (because storms could fire essentially anywhere along and ahead of that dryline, that NE'ly track tends to favor W->North Central OK as the day progresses.

I'll be keeping my eye on the dryline. If that picks up steam and heads east more quickly, things could change for central OK. Just have to keep watching.

Edit: Honestly, I think KOCO is "gilding the lily" a bit by extending "central OK" all the way to Ponca City. Northern Oklahoma is very much in a higher-risk zone (as noted by the moderate risk elevation). I think they want folks to see "Central OK" but think "OKC" and become a little...edgy.