General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[Stickman]

Just want to thank all of the TV weather personalities for hyping the OKC "dryslot" snow storm.

I bet visitors from northern states were laughing their arse off.

[Easy180]

Anyone else who worked today find it strange to drive in with still snow covered roads and 3 inches on the grass to completely bone dry streets and grass when leaving? Can't remember the last time that happened.

[LocoAko]

Anyone else who worked today find it strange to drive in with still snow covered roads and 3 inches on the grass to completely bone dry streets and grass when leaving? Can't remember the last time that happened.

The March sun angle is a real killer (plus the air today was dry, evaporating and sublimating all the meltwater/snow). It was entertaining to watch it melt so fast even as the temperature remained below freezing. By the time I drove into work at 10AM the only spots on the roads still covered in snow were those directly under shade of trees. It was cool.

[Bunty]

Hydrologic Outlook Hydrologic Outlook

Updated: Thu Mar-05-15 04:30pm CST
Effective: Thu Mar-05-15 04:30pm CST
Expires: Fri Mar-06-15 06:00am CST

Severity: Unknown
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...spring flood outlook...
The potential for flood conditions will be below normal in western/central oklahoma and western north texas this spring. Flooding in this oklahoma and north texas usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events. However, the red river and other larger rivers may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions. Many current hydrologic indicators reflect an ongoing drought that has gripped the southern plains for several years. The western half of oklahoma and western north texas have been trending drier for the last year and drought conditions have worsened in these areas. Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are below average to well- below average across most of oklahoma and western north texas. There are widespread areas that have received less than 75 percent-of- average precipitation. Large, scattered areas throughout oklahoma and western north texas have received less than 50 percent-of- average rainfall in the last 90 days. Stream and river discharges at most locations in the western half of oklahoma are below normal to well-below normal.

Widespread areas of western oklahoma are experiencing streamflows below the 10th percentile. Streamflows in the red river valley above lake texoma in southwestern oklahoma and western north texas are showing the effects of the long-term drought. Discharges in this area are generally less than 10 percent-of-average for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions across oklahoma and western north texas currently reflect the long-term drought conditions that have dominated the southern plains. Western oklahoma is plagued by below- normal soil moisture with values between the 20th and 30th percentiles. Soil moisture is generally near normal for western north texas, with conditions between the 30th and 70th percentiles of historical conditions. Reservoir storage in oklahoma and western north texas currently varies between the structures in the arkansas river system and those in the red river system. U.s. Army corps of engineers projects in western oklahoma and western north texas, especially those in the red river system are extremely dry and have a great deal of flood control storage available. In the aggregate, the reservoirs in oklahoma have 110 percent of their flood control storage available at this time. Available capacity in the arkansas system is approximately 108 percent of designed flood control storage. Available capacity in the red river system is approximately 114 percent of design flood control storage. The climate prediction center`s (cpc) seasonal outlook (mar-apr-may) calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of below-normal temperatures across most of oklahoma and western north texas.

The outlook also call for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near- normal precipitation across most of oklahoma. However, the outlook calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of above-normal rainfall for the upper red river basin in southwestern oklahoma and western north texas. The u.s. Drought monitor of february 24, 2015 indicates that areas in oklahoma and western north texas are experiencing abnormally dry (d0) to exceptional drought (d4) conditions. Abnormally dry (d0) or moderate drought (d1) conditions dominate near the central and south central parts of oklahoma. Conditions continue to worsen westward across the region and reach exceptional drought (d4) conditions in parts of western oklahoma and western north texas. The cpc u.s. Seasonal drought outlook of february 19, 2015 indicates drought conditions across western oklahoma and western north texas should persist or intensify over the next three months. Thanks to the u.s. Geological survey, the u.s. Army corps of engineers, oklahoma water resources board, and other federal, state and local groups for streamflow and reservoir data, and the climate prediction center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the drought outlook. For the latest river stage information, forecast, and warnings please visit our website at: National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma river stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the rivers/lakes link under the current weather section.

[okatty]

sounds like the ongoing drought in Western Okla may get worse. I travel out there for work every so often and its really bad in some places. These little small amounts of moisture from the winter weather we had helped get the wheat up and it looks pretty good but the ponds and water table are in terrible shape. Need some big spring rains in the worst way.

[OKCisOK4me]

And for those who are continually disappointed about the amount of winter weather OKC is getting. We have now had over 14 inches of snow this winter. That is well above normal.

14" of snow here means 9' of snow in Boston, lol...

[venture]

We'll see if this sticks around at all...but, first shot at spring storms starts the 19th in SW OK. NW to South Central OK on the 20th. Then a more intense day on the 22nd over Eastern OK.

Don't read much into this, only way to look at this would be a chance for a storm system to come through that weekend...too early to get hung up on specifics.

[Easy180]

14" of snow here means 9' of snow in Boston, lol...

Especially since we can't even have the highways cleared by the next morning's commute when the snow stops around 9 PM

[venture]

Especially since we can't even have the highways cleared by the next morning's commute when the snow stops around 9 PM

Most of that I'm sure falls into "why waste the money, the sun is going to come out anyway" train of thought.

[Easy180]

Most of that I'm sure falls into "why waste the money, the sun is going to come out anyway" train of thought.

I hear ya. I definitely agree with that strategy on streets but I would expect the city to have the highways clear with 9 hours to go until commuters head out.

[venture]

Looks like a fire going east of Seminole...

[silvergrove]

Some nice gentle rain out to help ameliorate the drought.

[okatty]

Some nice gentle rain out to help ameliorate the drought.

Hope it's enough to wash some of the crud off the streets! Car washes have been making out the last few days.

[Anonymous.]

OKC area picked up around .75" of rain, really good. Unfortunately, they got little to nothing out west.

Rain chances will continue to increase this month. Looks like a small chance this Friday night. Then better chances middle of next week into the following weekend.

[Outhunder]

I know this is very difficult to predict and the average date for last freeze is early April, but are there any signs of freezes headed our way? Really looking forward to the grass turning green. Hopefully with more sun, this will happen soon.

[Anonymous.]

Yea definitely to not be fooled, we can easily drop to freezing and below in late March.


BTW, GFS picking up winter solution again for the storm around the 19th-22nd timeframe.

[Uncle Slayton]

Yea definitely to not be fooled, we can easily drop to freezing and below in late March.


BTW, GFS picking up winter solution again for the storm around the 19th-22nd timeframe.

Aw, man, have mercy. I *love* the snow, but in December. I have tomato plants 6" tall...

[Anonymous.]

It's far enough away, I wouldn't worry about it. Just a reminder that cold air can still sneak in here!

[John1744]

David Payne had an interesting graphic on the 10PM newscast, this has been the quietest March in 46 years with no severe weather watches through today in the US. For some reason things like that make me even more nervous for the rest of the season. I feel I've heard things like this before only for the season to become incredibly active.

[ljbab728]

I kinda like it for a change when there isn't much to be said here. Especially since that's going to change big time in the next few months.

[venture]

Still appears next weekend we could see some storms in the Southern Plains. CAPE image below showing instability.

[Anonymous.]

7-day QPF projections are over an inch of rain over the next week.

[venture]

We are 3 days away from the all time record for the latest date the NWS Norman office has issues a severe thunderstorm warning (March 21, 1991). The latest date for a tornado warning is April 17th in 2013. We spoke about it a bit already in past threads and NWS Norman hit on it yesterday in a post on Facebook. A lot of people want to try to draw parallels on what it could mean and of course 1991 and 2013 were definitely busy years. So with that, we have an opportunity on Thursday to avoid setting a new record...

SPC has highlight a MARGINAL RISK area for SW and SC OK.

SPC Discussion

...SWRN OK THROUGH NWRN TX...

EAST OF A LEE LOW OVER WRN TX...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN
OK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR /LOW 60S F NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEPER /6.5 C/KM 850-500 MB/ LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD
ABOVE WRN FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC
WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE DAY WHICH
/ALONG WITH A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT/ SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...ASCENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE SWD MOVING FRONT. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

Thursday March 19th
Details: See above discussion.
Impact Area: SW, SC OK
Risk Level: Marginal (SPC)
Expected Risks: Wind, Hail

Saturday March 21th
Details: Isolated showers and storms. Low to marginal instability. Very little in the way of any precip expected.
Impact Area: C, SC OK
Risk Level: Low
Expected Risks: None

Sunday March 22th
Details: Low to marginal instability over much of W and C OK. Storms expected to form in the afternoon over NW OK and move SE over night.
Impact Area: W, C OK
Risk Level: Low
Expected Risks: Wind, Hail

Monday March 23rd
Details: Low to marginal instability over much of W and C OK. Isolated storms possible by late afternoon.
Impact Area: W, C OK
Risk Level: Low
Expected Risks: Wind, Hail

Tuesday March 24th
Details: Marginal instability over NW and NC OK. Chance for a couple isolated showers or storms to get going in there, but precip forecasts are low.
Impact Area: NW OK
Risk Level: Low
Expected Risks: Wind, Hail

Wednesday March 25th
Details: Marginal instability over SW OK stretching up I-44 to near C OK. Best chance for any storms will be in SW OK where CAPE values could exceed 1000 j/kg. Convective inhibition appears to be high, so that should restrict on how widespread activity gets.
Impact Area: SW OK
Risk Level: Low
Expected Risks: Wind, Hail

[John1744]

Well the rain was a bit of a bust compared to initial thoughts, par for the year eh? I must say I'm ready to see some thunderstorms rolling in.