2015 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion

[venture]

For the industry in 2015, things should finally start quieting down as M&A activity should finally be coming to an end. Mergers are to the point where they should be wrapped up for the most part or getting ready to get to that point, as is the case with AA & US. Below is a review of the predictions for 2014 and also a year over year comparison of service by each airline. For 2015, the information shown is for January 2015 though some other changes have been announced for later in the year so the numbers may be off slightly. Also some changes are not currently showing up in the schedules that were previously announced.

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Allegiant Air
No additional service from G4 based on 2014's performance. Service ran for a few months during peak travel season to Florida, but no additional growth took place.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Sanford-Orlando, FL	2 Weekly	2x MD-80	2 Weekly	2x MD-80	None

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American Airlines
We finally did see additional service come from the merger with the addition of Charlotte. Chicago and Dallas are converting to rolling hubs this year so that may impact frequencies and aircraft size. Overall we've seen some minor capacity changes to LAX and an upcoming decrease in seats to DFW for later this year is planned.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Charlotte	*new service in 2014*	2x CR9	2	2x CR9	None
Chicago O'Hare	4	2x CR7, 2x ER4	3	2x CR7, 1x ER4	-1
Dallas/Fort Worth	8	7x M80, 1x CRJ	9	6x M80, 1x CR9, 1x CR7, 1x CR7	+1
Los Angeles	2	2x CR7	2	2x CR9	None

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Delta Air LInes
No major changes as expected except for some frequency changes.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Atlanta	6	2x 738, 2x M88, 2x 319	5	3x M88, 2x 717	-1
Detroit Metro	2	2x CR7	1	1x CR7	-1
Minneapolis/St. Paul	3	3x CRJ	2	1x CR9, 1x CRJ	-1
Salt Lake City	3	1x CR9, 2x CR7	1	1x CR7	-2

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Frontier
The airline did indeed drop to 1 flight as suggested and the airline did announced they are leaving OKC in 2015. This is due to the carrier focusing on growing more point-to-point services into larger cities and downsizing the hub at Denver.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Denver	2	2x 319	Service Ends in May	n/a	-2

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Southwest
AirTran merger is complete and Dallas Love has open access to the rest of the country. We did lose a flight to DAL as predicted but also lost frequencies to MDW and ATL after the change over to WN metal.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Atlanta	2	2x 717 (AirTran)	1	1x 73G	-1
Baltimore	1	1x 73G	1	1x 73G	None
Chicago Midway	2	2x 717 (AirTran)	1	1x 73G	-1
Dallas Love	4	4x 73G	3	3x 73G	-1
Denver	3	3x 73G	3	3x 73G	None
Houston Hobby	4	4x 73G	4	4x 73G	None
Las Vegas	2	2x 73G	2	2x 73G	None
Phoenix	2	2x 73G	2	2x 73G	None
St. Louis	1	1x 73G	1	1x 73G	None

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United
No major changes except additional mainline removed. As expected, the local OKC employees are all being let go this year in favor of outsourced employees for all positions.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Chicago O'Hare	3	CR7, CRJ, ER4	2	1x 170, 1x CR7	-1
Cleveland	1	1x ER4	Discontinued in 2014	n/a	-1
Denver	5	2x CR7, 1x DH4, 2x ER4	4	2x CR7, 1x DH4, 1x ER4	-1
Houston Bush	10	1x 73G, 8x ER4, 1x CRJ	9	1x 319, 3x 175, 1x 170, 1x CR7, 3x ER4	-1
Los Angeles	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	None
Newark/New York	1	1x ER4	*Suspended*	Pending restart in Spring.	-1
San Francisco	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	None
Washington Dulles	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	None

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New Entrant Predictions
Finally Alaska to Seattle has happened via SkyWest. No other options were realized, but they were all long shots.

Destination	2014 Start Flights	Details	2015 Flights	Details	Change
Seattle	*None*	n/a	1	1x 175	+1

[catch22]

Correction to your DL: 5 in 2014 to ATL, 6 in 2015 starting June.

Also, UA has not announced the outsourcing yet but is rumored to announce 15-28 more stations within the next two weeks. (Have heard today and tomorrow might be the announcement). But those are only rumors and no stations are confirmed.

[venture]

Correction to your DL: 5 in 2014 to ATL, 6 in 2015 starting June.

Also, UA has not announced the outsourcing yet but is rumored to announce 15-28 more stations within the next two weeks. (Have heard today and tomorrow might be the announcement). But those are only rumors and no stations are confirmed.

Yeah, see the bolded part at the start of the post. The comparison is usually for Dec/Jan year over year...so the summer adjustments normally don't show up.

[catch22]

I'm saying, delta did not operate 6 flights a day to Atlanta in 2014. This summer is the first time they have operated 6 flights in about 7 years.

[venture]

I'm saying, delta did not operate 6 flights a day to Atlanta in 2014. This summer is the first time they have operated 6 flights in about 7 years.

Then I'm wondering why I put DL operating 6 flights a day in Dec 2013 (see: http://www.okctalk.com/transportatio...iscussion.html)

[catch22]

The last time they had 6 flights a day was at least 2009... I remember taking DL to ATL on the 530am flight. When they had the 530 they also had a 630. So maybe not seven years... But it has been several years. I worked the ramp for them in 2011, and it was only 5 a day then. So between 2009 and 2011 it ended.

[venture]

The last time they had 6 flights a day was at least 2009... I remember taking DL to ATL on the 530am flight. When they had the 530 they also had a 630. So maybe not seven years... But it has been several years. I worked the ramp for them in 2011, and it was only 5 a day then. So between 2009 and 2011 it ended.

Yeah who knows. Not sure why I put 6 in there for last year unless I had pull some random holiday date with an extra section.

[catch22]

Yeah who knows. Not sure why I put 6 in there for last year unless I had pull some random holiday date with an extra section.

That's entirely possible. Wish there was a way to review old info...it gets deleted from GDS systems rather quickly.

[catch22]

I am 100% certain 2013 and 2014 did not have 6 flights a day. 75% certain about 2012. and am 50% certain 2011 did not either.

[Jeepnokc]

As DL continues to shrink their flights to hubs other than ATL, they are going to lose loyal passengers. I am Delta Gold and because I am big guy, I normally book 1st/business. Two flights x 2 people to MSY next month booked on UA because I refuse to pay more to fly two extra hours. (not to mention that the 1st class ticket on UA was 40 more than a coach on DL and 450 cheaper than 1st on DL) When Memphis was open...no problem. Flight x5 for spring break to Bahamas on American because DL only flies there 2 days a week. Flights to west coast are a joke now that there is 1 flight through Salt Lake. After flying SFO to ATL to OKC a couple of months ago, I decided enough. If you want one main hub....put it in the middle of the country.

[damonsmuz]

Jeep: The reduction on DL to SLC is temporary. Looks like in early March is it back to 2 a day on either a -700 or a -900.

[venture]

Yeah, once more segment numbers get released by the DOT I'll be able to put something together that shows the trends in capacity a bit better.

[no1cub17]

Thanks for sharing the info. I wish OKC-ORD was healthier - quite surprising that AA is at 3x/day and UA down to 2x/day - would think UA would have higher freqs to ORD as they're still technically larger there, but the "new AA" seems to be recommitted to ORD so that could be part of it. Just curious how are loads on OKC-CLT?

[catch22]

http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/Dec...nplanement.pdf

Year end 3,834,009 passengers. I believe that is the busiest year ever, if trends continue, 2015 should be the year we break 4 million, as long as our local oil companies hold it together during the oil crash.

[Plutonic Panda]

Just out of curiosity, how did Tulsa's airport do?

[catch22]

Their numbers are not posted, but as of November they are 2.6 million. Once December is in shoud be around 2.8 million.

[damonsmuz]

Tulsa Airports Facebook page says they will be announcing 3 new destinations on January 13. Anyone have insider knowledge of where it might be???

[venture]

Tulsa Airports Facebook page says they will be announcing 3 new destinations on January 13. Anyone have insider knowledge of where it might be???

First guess would be on G4 to PIE, PGD, and AZA. Second guess would be PHL, CLT, and LAX on AA.

[HOT ROD]

code decoder please

[damonsmuz]

Tulsa new service on Allegiant to LAX ,LAS and St Pete

[venture]

Well I got one right. LOL

HR - Sorry! PIE = St. Pete, PGD = Punta Gorda, FL, AZA = Mesa-Phoenix.

EDIT...from Channel 6 in TUL...

Two of the destinations, St. Petersburg-Clearwater and Los Angeles will be seasonal. St. Petersburg-Clearwater flights will be May 7, 2015 through August 18, 2015 and Los Angeles June 5, 2015 through August 18, 2015. Allegiant will offer year-round service to Las Vegas beginning on April 8, 2015.

[catch22]

Correction to your DL: 5 in 2014 to ATL, 6 in 2015 starting June.

Also, UA has not announced the outsourcing yet but is rumored to announce 15-28 more stations within the next two weeks. (Have heard today and tomorrow might be the announcement). But those are only rumors and no stations are confirmed.

NOW it's official that I am losing my job hooray for minimum wage contractors stealing Union jobs!

[TheTravellers]

NOW it's official that I am losing my job hooray for minimum wage contractors stealing Union jobs!

My sympathies, man, I've been laid off twice and it's quite unpleasant, good luck!

[HOT ROD]

sorry to hear catch. ...

I wish the rainbow tulip could re-emerge, the darkened globe has ruined United to the point of no return it appears.

[Jeepnokc]

NOW it's official that I am losing my job hooray for minimum wage contractors stealing Union jobs!

That sucks Catch. Fingers crossed that you land a better gig.