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Thread: Denver

  1. #51

    Default Re: Denver

    Part of what is driving the construction boom in Denver is the area is, like Austin and Portland, very popular for educated, progressive, upwardly mobile millennials who want to live in urban environments. People are flocking there in droves. I am not sure 15,000 new units will be enough to keep up with the demand there.

    I think somewhere between 7,000 and 10,000 units is the sweet spot for OKC.

  2. #52

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    I think somewhere between 7,000 and 10,000 units is the sweet spot for OKC.
    Not even close.

    From a post I made on LIFT not long ago:

    I was talking with someone from ULI last weekend and he mentioned the general rule of thumb that most newer, sprawl cities (like OKC, Dallas, etc.) should expect to have about 2% of their population living downtown.

    Doing the math, that means OKC could easily support about 25,000. If you consult our Downtown Housing Summary, you'll see there are less than 5,000 units built, under construction or with solid plans. Multiply that by 1.5 residents per unit and you get to 7,500.

    So, even after everything now planned is built and occupied, there will be the need and demand for more than 2 X what is already complete.

    And developers in OKC know this and most of them are planning to build lots more, despite what they may say publicly. There are absolutely tons of residential projects in the pipeline and I only see that activity increasing.

    And they will all be quickly absorbed.

  3. #53

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    ^

    Thanks for that.

    Denver has about 15,000 units completed, under construction or proposed.

    OKC has about 5,200.

    Considering the Denver MSA is only about double our size, it goes to show that we should be able to support much more in the way of downtown housing.
    To further your point, the Denver #s are just since 2010. The area encompasses probably close to 70,000 people, which at 1/2 the MSA would put OKC at about 35k.

    I will add that vacancy rates are on the rise in the core, you can certainly build too much, too fast. There are only so many folks that are willing to pay the premiums to live in/near downtown.

  4. #54

    Default Re: Denver

    ^

    Part of the rise in vacancy is no doubt due to the lagging nature of commercial real estate.

    You can only get loans for projects where there has been a recent history of success, so once there is a good run of successful developments, the financial floodgates open and everyone rides that wave.

    It's exactly why there is this constant boom and bust cycle in office buildings, shopping centers and other commercial projects.

    You can see it happening right now with hotels in OKC because financing is currently very easy to get.

  5. #55

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    ^

    Part of the rise in vacancy is no doubt due to the lagging nature of commercial real estate.

    You can only get loans for projects where there has been a recent history of success, so once there is a good run of successful developments, the financial floodgates open and everyone rides that wave.

    It's exactly why there is this constant boom and bust cycle in office buildings, shopping centers and other commercial projects.

    You can see it happening right now with hotels in OKC because financing is currently very easy to get.
    Right, banks become more comfortable with specific industries or subsections (i.e. multifamily, hotels, etc.) the more comps they have. The rent rolls from these recent multifamily complexes that have opened or are coming online soon will allow the banks to underwrite and become more comfortable with these types of projects. This will only open up more doors for future development.

  6. #56

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by DenverPoke View Post
    I will add that vacancy rates are on the rise in the core, you can certainly build too much, too fast. There are only so many folks that are willing to pay the premiums to live in/near downtown.
    Are vacancy rates on the rise in Denver or in OKC?

    I think 25,000 new units in downtown OKC would be incredible if the market can support it. I think after the streetcar is complete and downtown offers basic amenities such as a grocery store, demand will only increase more.

  7. #57

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Are vacancy rates on the rise in Denver or in OKC?

    I think 25,000 new units in downtown OKC would be incredible if the market can support it. I think after the streetcar is complete and downtown offers basic amenities such as a grocery store, demand will only increase more.
    Downtown Denver, supply has gone way up but no downward pressure on pricing as of yet. The opposite actually so far, prices have been increasing 10-15% YOY.

    I don't think OKC can support anywhere near 25,000 new units. I think getting 30k people in the core in the next decade or 2 would be a great start.

  8. #58

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by DenverPoke View Post
    I don't think OKC can support anywhere near 25,000 new units. I think getting 30k people in the core in the next decade or 2 would be a great start.
    Not all at once, no.

    But over the next 20-25 years? Absolutely. Plenty of room for infill and tons of amenities with a lot more coming and soon.

    Just wait until the streetcar is implemented, the live music venues open, we get a full-fledged grocery store, the MAPS 3 park is fully functional, the dozens of new restaurants and bars already in the works open, etc., etc.

    Downtowns are the polar opposite of the suburbs: More units build critical mass and attract even more, as opposed to tract homes which merely just keep slicing up the same predictable pie of demand.

  9. #59

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Not all at once, no.

    But over the next 20-25 years? Absolutely. Plenty of room for infill and tons of amenities with a lot more coming and soon.

    Just wait until the streetcar is implemented, the live music venues open, we get a full-fledged grocery store, the MAPS 3 park is fully functional, the dozens of new restaurants and bars already in the works open, etc., etc.

    Downtowns are the polar opposite of the suburbs: More units build critical mass and attract even more, as opposed to tract homes which merely just keep slicing up the same predictable pie of demand.
    Yes I was referring to the more near term. Over 25 years it's certainly possible, but that is still an average of 1k each year, there will undoubtedly be lean years ahead where very little is being built. As land gets more expensive and developers are forced to go more vertical you are probably talking 3-4 towers per. year

  10. #60

    Default Re: Denver

    Following up on the residential report, here is a development map for Office/Hotel/Civic projects (via DenverInfill):

    Completed/UC Office projects total about 3.4 million sf. About 2,900 hotel rooms have been completed/UC.


  11. #61

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    ^

    Thanks for that.

    Denver has about 15,000 units completed, under construction or proposed.

    OKC has about 5,200.

    Considering the Denver MSA is only about double our size, it goes to show that we should be able to support much more in the way of downtown housing.
    Keep in mind Denver's population density is also quit a bit higher than OKC as well. Metro population alone is likely less of a factor in absorption rates than density.

  12. #62

    Default Re: Denver

    Hope this is an appropriate question for this thread (if not I will make a separate one).

    Can any of you experienced OKC/DEN people describe how to deal with the sticker shock of real estate in Denver right now? It seems like all the new construction there is very high end. Do they not have any incentives to build any Ideal Homes or Home Creations type neighborhoods?

  13. #63

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by skwillz View Post
    Do they not have any incentives to build any Ideal Homes or Home Creations type neighborhoods?
    I don't think they need to be that cheap as Denver is very desirable.

  14. #64

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by skwillz View Post
    Hope this is an appropriate question for this thread (if not I will make a separate one).

    Can any of you experienced OKC/DEN people describe how to deal with the sticker shock of real estate in Denver right now? It seems like all the new construction there is very high end. Do they not have any incentives to build any Ideal Homes or Home Creations type neighborhoods?

    There are several issues at play. Quick points:

    1. Supply is tight and demand is high, driving up prices all across the metro. It is really hard to find anything decent for under $300k anywhere in the area.

    2. From speaking to builders (I just built new construction north of town), the costs are marginal for the builder to construct a 1,200 sq/ft home vs a 2,000 sq/ft home so they are choosing the latter for the higher profit margins.

    3. Water rights. Builders must pay for water rights in most locations, potentially driving up prices another $20k+.

    4. Construction defect laws. The state has strict laws favoring the consumer, which has effectively eliminated condo construction as developers don't want to take on the litigation risks. Instead they are building apartments by the thousands.

    I'm not sure how it will all play out, but I can say I wouldn't be moving here at this time. I love Denver, but the home prices just aren't worth it IMO.

  15. #65

    Default Re: Denver

    List of projects currently under construction (>10 floors)

    1144 15th St. - 40F – Office
    The Confluence - 34F- Residential
    Country Club Tower Building 1 - 31F – Residential
    Country Club Tower Building 2 - 31F – Residential
    999 17th (1776 Curtis) – 28F – Residential
    Skyhouse – 25F – Residential
    1709 Chestnut Building 1 -23F – Residential
    1709 Chestnut Building 2 -12F – Residential
    1401 Lawrence - 22F – Office
    AC/Le Meridien – 21F – Hotel
    Eviva Cherokee – 18F - Residential
    Colorado Center Tower 3 – 15F – Office
    One Belleview Station – 16F – Office
    Pivot Building 1 – 13F – Residential
    Pivot Building 2 – 13F – Residential
    Pivot Building 3 – 13F – Residential
    Union Tower West – 12F –Office/Hotel
    Alexan Uptown – 13F – Residential
    Hotel Born – 12F – Hotel
    Coda Cherry Creek – 12F – Residential
    Source Hotel – 10F - Hotel

  16. #66

    Default Re: Denver

    Regarding Denver and housing prices, it is largely a function of supply and demand. Denver is one of the fastest growing metros in the country and still has a robust job market despite O&G falling off (not a huge percentage of the overall job market unlike OKC or Houston). Supply is practically non-existent due to construction not keeping up with demand and associated rising prices keeping people from selling homes. Like DenverPoke mentioned there is little incentive to build lower priced housing when you can make more money with the high end market.

    Denver doesn't have a massive sprawl engine that cranks out thousands of low priced homes. There is sprawl but open space restrictions and water rights work to prevent a massive amount of new development on the fringes. Though there is a new 12,000 home development called Sterling Ranch that is getting started on the SW side of the metro, but it took a decade for it to get approved. Infill development is huge in Denver and will continue as long as people keep moving to the city.

  17. #67

    Default Re: Denver

    Great aerial from Union Station looking east towards downtown.
    (photo courtesy of Ryan Dravitz Photography)


  18. #68

    Default Re: Denver

    Who knows if/when this happens, but it would be transformational for downtown if gets built anything close to the conceptual design.

    City proposes a massive overhaul to Denver Performing Arts Complex - The Denver Post


  19. #69

    Default Re: Denver

    I'm considering a move to Denver early next year. I've read through most of this thread and to no surprise, Denver is busy. Real estate pricing isn't too much of a concern as I don't plan on buying.

    I know of LODO, but where are the places like the Plaza, Paseo, Film Row, Midtown, at in Denver? I'm trying to familiarize myself with the area as I have only taken a few trips up there. I will most likely take another trip in November.

  20. #70

    Default Re: Denver

    I am paying $1,200 a month for a 1 bed/1 bath, 720 sq. ft. in a 20 year old apartment complex on the very edge of Denver north of Aurora. (Green Valley Ranch Blvd. / Memphis Ave) The units are pretty nice and private, and we like the layout and the location is perfect for us at is a 10 minute drive to the airport for work. (We both work at the airport).

    It's very expensive, and only climbing. I have been here since May, so have no idea on where the local hip neighborhoods are. The rent budget will need to be closing in on or greater than $2,000 a month to live in those areas comfortably. We did the studio/small complex thing in Portland and we absolutely hated it. Different strokes for different blokes, so sacrificing space for location may be something you would be okay with. We decided we would rather have more space and live further out. We are close to the rail line if we want to go downtown, it's a 20 minute ride on the A line.

    Let me know when you come up here, if you want to grab a drink or something. Good to hang out with fellow Okie's when out of state.

  21. #71

    Default Re: Denver

    I know of LODO, but where are the places like the Plaza, Paseo, Film Row, Midtown, at in Denver? I'm trying to familiarize myself with the area
    Lodo is like Bricktown but much larger and more mixed-use. It is where the largest concentration of bars and clubs are; lots of sports bars several with rooftop patios and a young crowd.

    My favorite area downtown is Union Station where the A line from the airport terminates. It's the hub for all trains and buses. The old station has restaurants and a cool bar, and the plaza area outside is always lively. The neighborhood behind the station is building up (after being literally just vacant land 5 years ago) and a fun walk is to go west from the station down 16th, over the bridge to Riverfront Park. You can then walk over the river to Lower Highland...

    Lower Highland is probably most similar to Midtown in OKC but also very different. Lots of restaurants and a few bars and lots of new housing. It sits on hill so it has amazing views of the skyline, and many of the restaurants have patio views. The "Highlands" or NW Denver have two other commercial districts: Highland Square at 32nd & Lowell and Tennyson at 38th & Tennyson. The largest amount of good restaurants in the city outside of downtown are located in the " Highlands".

    The most similar to Paseo would probably be Santa Fe Arts District along Santa Fe Dr south of downtown. There is nothing in OKC similar to River North (Rino) which is an industrial area north of downtown. It has been rapidly redeveloping and has great restaurants and lots of art galleries, also lots of breweries. Epic is one of my favorites. The Source is a cool urban market to check out on Brighton; there is a sour brewery inside that is fantastic called Crooked Stave.

    One of the other areas to check out is Cherry Creek southeast of downtown. There is the mall there, the biggest and nicest in Colorado, but the area to the north is where you can walk around in a downtown-like environment with lots of stores and restaurants. It is also going through a building boom and adding lots of density. Cherry Creek is also near Washington Park which is one of Denver's most popular and surrounded by nice tree-lined neighborhoods with tons of new infill.

    Outside of Denver, Boulder is a cool college town with lots to do and Golden has an interesting old downtown. Both are 25-30 min from downtown Denver.

  22. #72

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I am paying $1,200 a month for a 1 bed/1 bath, 720 sq. ft. in a 20 year old apartment complex on the very edge of Denver north of Aurora. (Green Valley Ranch Blvd. / Memphis Ave)
    Hey that's basically what my friend will pay for a unit at the Metro here!

  23. #73

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by AP View Post
    Hey that's basically what my friend will pay for a unit at the Metro here!
    So jealous of OKC. If only we hadn't have been laid off. Could live very comfortably in the area of the city with the most urban amenities and still an easy drive to anywhere in town. And have the money to actually go out and enjoy the city! Oh well!

  24. Default Re: Denver

    I lived in Golden for several years back in the late 90s. It is a cool walkable town close to Denver. I don't know how far away you want to live from Denver proper or want to stay in the city, rent at the time was pretty decent but don't quote me on that since that was 20 odd years ago. Golden also has a college as well, although it is more of a technical specialty college, however still a lot of young people there, and Woody's pizza was a favorite hang out for really good true wood fired pizza and great local beers on tap. Plus Golden has one of the best breweries in Colorado - Golden City Brewery. Try a Barley Ale, but don't plan on going anywhere after.

  25. #75

    Default Re: Denver

    Quote Originally Posted by OkiePoke View Post
    I'm considering a move to Denver early next year. I've read through most of this thread and to no surprise, Denver is busy. Real estate pricing isn't too much of a concern as I don't plan on buying.

    I know of LODO, but where are the places like the Plaza, Paseo, Film Row, Midtown, at in Denver? I'm trying to familiarize myself with the area as I have only taken a few trips up there. I will most likely take another trip in November.
    BG918 is pretty spot on about the 'hoods. Denver is a nice city but be prepared to pay a lot and spend a lot of time in traffic. My wife grew up in Chicago and she says Denver is becoming more and more like a small Chicago everyday. IMO if you aren't a huge fan of the outdoors it isn't worth the COL, but to each their own.

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