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  1. Default General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015


    Current Conditions
    [hr][/hr]
    Air Temperature Dewpoint Winds Rainfall Last 24 Hours
    [hr][/hr]
    Advisory Table NWS Norman Warning Area NWS Tulsa Warning Area
    • Tornado Warning
    • Tornado Watch
    • Severe T-Storm Warning
    • Severe T-Storm Watch
    • Blizzard Warning
    • Blizzard Watch
    • Winter Storm Warning
    • Winter Storm Watch
    • Ice Storm Warning
    • Red Flag Warning
    • Winter Weather Advisory
    • Wind Chill Advisory
    • Wind Chill Warning
    • Freezing Rain Advisory
    Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service
    [hr][/hr]
    Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma[hr][/hr]
    [hr][/hr]Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
    [hr][/hr]
    Day 1 (Today) Outlook Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook Day 3 Outlook Outlook for Days 4 through 8

    [hr][/hr]Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
    [hr][/hr]

    NAM 12Z/00Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR
    Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals
    NAM 06Z/18Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR
    Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals
    RUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HR







    WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HR

    [hr][/hr]
    Snow Accumulation Sleet Freezing Rain
    Operational GFS 12Z/00Z Run
    (144 Hr Totals)
    Operational GFS 06Z/18Z Run
    (120 Hr Totals)
    GEM Run
    (144 Hr Totals)
    [hr][/hr]


    Lightning image is Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

  2. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    With the incoming winter storm that will happen right as we enter January, I've put this thread up a bit early. I tried to clear out some of the information at the top to add in better visibility of the winter forecast model products.

  3. #3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Classic winter storm for the southern plains shaping up.

    Cold air blast coming into the state now, we have likely seen the sun for the last time this week.

    Temperatures will struggle to make freezing the next few days, perhaps a few degrees above just before storm hits.

    Ground temperatures will be very cold as night time lows will be in the teens and daytime highs of <32F with limited sunshine.


    All of these things will lead a deepening low that will move across TX and OK. Grab your popcorn and turn on the local news @ 10 (just kidding, please don't post their forecasts).

  4. #4

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.

  5. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobby821 View Post
    That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.
    Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.

  6. #6

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by s00nr1 View Post
    Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.
    We haven't had a good ice storm in a few years, hopefully this one pans out for the metro with ice and snow

  7. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Anyone hoping for a "good ice storm" should probably have their head checked.

  8. #8

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.

  9. #9

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.
    Well, they can make for some stunningly beautiful photographs IMO, but that's not quite reason enough to root for them lol.

    Though of course, as with storm chasing, whether you root for or against it has no actual effect on the outcome so as long as it isn't tactless it isn't unethical, but I digress...

  10. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Let's try to keep the thread on track and avoid direct personal digs. These threads always will attract those that like extreme weather and I don't think anyone wishes for it so that it would cause harm to others.

  11. #11

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    When will this storm be sampled? Or is it already being sampled on shore? The 18Z models looked like the low was tracking a tad north when it finally kicks out later towards the weekend. Any thoughts?

  12. #12

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Waiting to see what the local mets say here at 10PM?

  13. #13

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Some just released video:


  14. #14

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?

  15. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Soonerman12 View Post
    Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?
    Not sure if you have looked the last couple of updates, but the AFDs from Norman keep pointing out that the operation GFS (the one linked in the graphics above and the one most accessible online) has traditional stayed warm with the system contrary to the Parallel GFS and other models. So let's take that thought from them and combine it with what we typically see....cold air rushing in faster or staying established - heck, the last snowfall was a result of temps dropping just a couple degrees below guidance and bam. So this is kinda where everything is falling...

    Thursday - Freezing Rain & Sleet for nearly everyone.
    Friday - Freezing Rain to start the day and then hopefully enough warming to turn off the ice machine. This will also be the time period with the highest precip amounts.
    Saturday - Wrap around snow that Anon has mentioned with best chances north as the rest of us will probably get dry slotted.

    In the mean time, we do have snow chances today...mainly an inch of less for everyone along/west of I-35.


  16. #16

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    David... Yeah I saw that. Do you think dry slot will be for central and southwest or pretty much take over all the state. I've noticed the models are changing quite a bit every run (LOL normal for Oklahoma before winter storms) But it seems like my part of the state may miss out on quite a bit. (Tulsa)

  17. #17

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    NAM is even more Bread and Milk today. Still not sure on wrap-around snow for NAM.

    GFS is unraveling storm quite a bit and shoving the system off east quickly. Starting to be outlier.

  18. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015


  19. #19

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?

  20. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Soonerman12 View Post
    Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?
    If you don't have this site, I really like it for Parallel GFS runs: Parallel GFS - Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

    So P-GFS has sleet starting around here by 18Z Thursday. To show how things have trended, here is that forecast hour for the last ~32 P-GFS runs (most recent first): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy...us_comp54.html

    Overall forecast animation: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy..._frzn_eus.html

  21. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Here is another good comparison of the 12Z GFS (top one) vs. P-GFS runs for the exact some forecast period - 18Z Thursday.




  22. #22

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Thanks David I appreciate it!

  23. #23

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.

  24. #24

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.
    Let's hope this pans out. Don't nobody want ice.

  25. #25

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    I'll take dry.

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