General Weather Discussion - December 2014

[venture]

Having spent a lot of time in Chicagoland in years past. The winters here don't even compare. Folks freak out over 4" of snow here that melts off in a week, when up north they get multiple snow falls over sveral days that adds up to more than a foot on the ground for weeks. The biggest problem we have here is ice storms. The winter of '07 was a doozie.

They also get the streets cleared pretty quickly there. I would much rather go through the dead times of the year with snow on the ground to brighten things up a bit. We just need to get better getting the roads clean faster.

[OkieHornet]

early thoughts on the coming week? seems to be some agreement by the locals on some wintry precip on new year's day...

[venture]

early thoughts on the coming week? seems to be some agreement by the locals on some wintry precip on new year's day...

New Year's Day looks to be the lighter precip days when looking at the 1st and 2nd. 06Z GFS put out some light freezing rain for Jan 1st in last night's run. For the 2nd a bit heavier precip but the precip type up in the air. There is still a lot of back and forth right now when it comes to precip amounts and type.

[venture]

12Z GFS is about 2 degrees too warm on the surface from us having a major ice storm. Rainfall around 0.75" on the 2nd.

[s00nr1]

Thought I'd throw in a couple of captures from our internal runs of today's 12Z ECMWF with precip type forecast for the metro:

12AM Friday - Right on the edge of rain/freezing rain



6AM Friday - Rain



12PM Saturday - Wraparound - Rain changing to freezing rain/sleet



12AM Sunday - Wraparound - Freezing rain/sleet/snow mix

[Bunty]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Several winter weather impacts are expected this week. First of all...arctic air will begin moving into Oklahoma this afternoon. Gusty north winds will allow wind chill values to fall near and below zero over much of the region late tonight through early Wednesday. In addition...scattered snow showers will be possible over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night. A few areas of northwest and west-central Oklahoma could see an inch of snow. Attention then turns toward Thursday through early Friday...when widespread sleet and freezing rain appear possible. With arctic air in place for a few days prior to the onset of sleet and freezing rain...travel impacts will be possible Thursday and Friday. During this wintry precipitation event...the forecast calls for relatively light wind which will help to minimize the impacts on power lines and vegetation. Lastly...as the storm system leaves the southern plains...a change over to snow is possible Saturday and Saturday night. The highest likelihood for any significant snow accumulations currently appear to be over far northern Oklahoma. Since this is a complex storm system and forecast data will likely change as the system evolves...we strongly urge you to stay weather aware by monitoring later forecasts.

[s00nr1]

12Z NAM came in a bit colder....here is forecast accum fzra through 6pm Thursday:

[Anonymous.]

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

[s00nr1]

Yesterday's 12Z run of the GEM model = ugly.

[s00nr1]

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

12Z GFS actually paints a much rosier picture as most precip falls as plain old rain for the entirety of the event.

[Anonymous.]

Yea, I meant for TX PH. The storm in general looks like it could have a nice wrap-around. With the track being so up-in-the-air, I figured I would mention it.

[John1744]

The local mets are already starting the hype train on Twitter for this system. Should be fun to watch it change.

[venture]

I'm working on getting the January thread going early since this event is mostly for then. Will update it to have the FZRN graphics as well.

[Bobby821]

just came to post same thing.

First nam run this afternoon is bread and milk.

Gfs dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

bring it!!!

[Of Sound Mind]

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.