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Thread: Oil prices

  1. #1

    Default Oil prices

    Oil is currently at $74/bbl. Some reporters are now predicting $50 oil next year which could be a cause of concern for OKC.

    Why oil is more likely to test $50 than $100 again next year

    For those who know the industry more than I do, is this something to really be concerned about?

  2. #2

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Oil is currently at $74/bbl. Some reporters are now predicting $50 oil next year which could be a cause of concern for OKC.

    Why oil is more likely to test $50 than $100 again next year

    For those who know the industry more than I do, is this something to really be concerned about?
    No.

  3. Default Re: Oil prices

    Some of the more marginal wells that are barely profitable at $70 won't be at $50; there will probably be some job losses if it gets that low, and firms that switched from gas to oil in hopes of better returns will likely return to gas production.

    That said, other segments of the economy will absolutely love it.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Russia said they would enter a recession if oil hits $60 for any significant duration of time.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Gas just dipped below $3 (at Costco) for the first time in over four years.

    For a while, our average price for regular was almost $5 and this summer averaged around $4.40.

    So, almost a 1/3 reduction in just a few months.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    No.
    I disagree. Harold Hamm (CLR) removed all 2015 hedges. The oil they produce next year will be sold at market rate. He's betting on the oil price to skyrocket -- if he is wrong and 50-70 bbl oil is sustained through much of 2015, CLR will have some serious issues as I don't think their drilling cost is < $50. (I may be wrong, but even then it's still tight margins)

  7. #7

    Default Re: Oil prices

    This is our hand, USA, telling the Saudis to release their reserves to hurt the Russian economy. Similar to what happened in the late 80s, then the USSR crashed in the early 90s.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Hamm will survive...Let's let us average joes enjoy this for a while

  9. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I disagree. Harold Hamm (CLR) removed all 2015 hedges. The oil they produce next year will be sold at market rate. He's betting on the oil price to skyrocket -- if he is wrong and 50-70 bbl oil is sustained through much of 2015, CLR will have some serious issues as I don't think their drilling cost is < $50. (I may be wrong, but even then it's still tight margins)
    Probably would be ok in the Bakken but would have to scale back somewhat in the scoop.

  10. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy180 View Post
    Hamm will survive...Let's let us average joes enjoy this for a while
    Of course Hamm will survive, it's the state of the his and other companies here that we should be concerned about if oil hits $50. Plenty of average joes are employed at continental.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I thought the bbl value had more to do with less dependence on foreign oil and the fact that the US is becoming more self reliant for production.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by OKCisOK4me View Post
    I thought the bbl value had more to do with less dependence on foreign oil and the fact that the US is becoming more self reliant for production.
    Oil is a global commodity and all oil produced in every producing country gets sold on a global market.

  13. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by PhiAlpha View Post
    Of course Hamm will survive, it's the state of the his and other companies here that we should be concerned about if oil hits $50. Plenty of average joes are employed at continental.
    Hang on...I thought everyone associated with the oil industry was a filthy profiteering billionaire..? Are you suggesting AVERAGE JOES work for and invest in oil companies and associated industries?

  14. #14

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I disagree. Harold Hamm (CLR) removed all 2015 hedges. The oil they produce next year will be sold at market rate. He's betting on the oil price to skyrocket -- if he is wrong and 50-70 bbl oil is sustained through much of 2015, CLR will have some serious issues as I don't think their drilling cost is < $50. (I may be wrong, but even then it's still tight margins)
    Na. Their costs in the Bakken are lower then that. You'll see a slowdown in the scoop. However, a brutal brutal winter appears to be coming. Production usually falls off a little bit while demand jumps up.

    The Saudis might not be hurting but others in OPEC are and even the slightest production cut will give it a boost. Crude is oversold on the fear opec and the U.S. is trying to teach Russia a lesson. If we are trying to teach Russia a lesson it won't take long before Russia taps and begs them to stop.

    I think humans just like to be negative, talk about how the sky is falling and that we're all gonna die.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Oil prices

    According to Bloomberg, it depends on what part of the Bakken you are talking about as far as impact.

    Bakken Drillers Poised to Curb Exploratory Spending - Bloomberg

    Companies drilling parts of the Bakken where very high underground pressure forces more oil to the surface in each well -- such as the Nesson Anticline or the western Williston -- are best-positioned to withstand the slump in prices, Sorbara said. Conversely, the northernmost areas of the region where geological conditions are less favorable will be hardest hit, he said.

    During the past six months, Bakken has lost 21 percent of its value, making it the second-worst performing domestic crude. Only Kern River crude, a thick, sulfury oil produced in southern California, fell more with a 24 percent decline during the period.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    Russia said they would enter a recession if oil hits $60 for any significant duration of time.
    Has Russia ever recovered from a recession?

  17. #17

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Oil is a global commodity and all oil produced in every producing country gets sold on a global market.
    Money makes the world go round... We should horde our locally produced oil like the US government hordes gold.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    Na. Their costs in the Bakken are lower then that. You'll see a slowdown in the scoop. However, a brutal brutal winter appears to be coming. Production usually falls off a little bit while demand jumps up.

    The Saudis might not be hurting but others in OPEC are and even the slightest production cut will give it a boost. Crude is oversold on the fear opec and the U.S. is trying to teach Russia a lesson. If we are trying to teach Russia a lesson it won't take long before Russia taps and begs them to stop.

    I think humans just like to be negative, talk about how the sky is falling and that we're all gonna die.
    What's negative to some is positive to others. States that are not heavily invested in oil would love to see 50 dollars a barrel. Of course, I don't think we will see 50 dollars a barrel.

  19. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Urbanized View Post
    Hang on...I thought everyone associated with the oil industry was a filthy profiteering billionaire..? Are you suggesting AVERAGE JOES work for and invest in oil companies and associated industries?
    I know, right? Who would've thought?!?!?!

  20. Default Re: Oil prices

    Well the Saudis said no to production cuts so crude is now under $70 bbl. Keep on falling in my opinion. It will help a lot of other sectors in this country.

  21. Default Re: Oil prices

    Anyone notice has gasoline has dropped 30 % but diesel hasn't really budged ?

  22. #22

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Well the Saudis said no to production cuts so crude is now under $70 bbl. Keep on falling in my opinion. It will help a lot of other sectors in this country.
    While it will help many sectors, the market is is killing the O&G sector (specifically the oil-heavy companies - CLR ~-20%). We obviously have one of the largest oil and gas presences in the country with companies that are heavily involved in the community. If OPEC keeps the production at the same level, oil prices sustained at this level could have a relatively large impact on OKC (whether it is decreased development, community donations, etc.).

  23. #23

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Just a Black Friday sale of oil companies. CLR now 20% off.

  24. #24

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I think the question at this point is this. How low will oil go? When will we start seeing lower prices effecting OKC and how bad will it get?

  25. #25

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    I think the question at this point is this. How low will oil go? When will we start seeing lower prices effecting OKC and how bad will it get?
    Nobody knows. The Saudis, U.S. producers, the rest of opec and Russia are basically playing Russian roulette with prices to see who goes bankrupt first.

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