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The problem with this is that oil is not "way low." IMO this country has become completely detached on what constitutes cheap oil. At $67/bbl (what it is currently trading at as of 1 PM today), oil prices are higher than they were when Devon broke ground on its tower in 2009, or when the Thunder first started playing in 2008 (of course they were much higher when the relocation was finalized, but the support was still there afterwords). At the current price, a handful of marginal fields are not profitable, but the vast majority of conventional fields and even some unconventional ones are. Also, this does not factor in the slowly increasing price of natural gas, currently about $4.35/mcf
The biggest risk in the short term for OKC is increased M&A activity, much like the rather random Hallibuton/Baker Hughes deal. Not saying that local companies are going to get bought out, but the risk is substantially higher now. In the long term, however, I am not worried. This is not 1979, where the oil "shortage" was fueled largely by spiteful OPEC members creating an artificial market. The world has entered into a new phase of E&P exploration and demand elasticity. Hell, AEP got $500 million last week for new aquisitions. My own employer recently completed a succesful capital program as well. If investors were worried about the long term position of energy would these things be happening? Nope. That's the key here...LONG TERM.
As far as all of this effecting OKC, I heard these same arguments about NYC when the stock market crashed in 2008 or about DC in 2012 when steep budget cuts were enacted. True, both events had a slowing effect on their local economies. And yet, both cities are awash in construction cranes. Obviously a bit of a reach to compare OKC with NYC or DC, but the point applies. Investment will occur where businesses think they can make the most amount of $$ over the LONG TERM.
And something to consider. The local economy was probably stronger relative to the rest of the country in 2010-12 than it is today, now that most of the country has recovered somewhat. So logic would state we would have experienced a flood of capital during that time; except that we really didn't. Only in the past 18-24 months has OKC really seen a lot of national players enter this market.
My point being, there are a lot of moving parts to OKC. It's important to note that the two largest economic "gets" this past year (expansion at Tinker and Boeing) had nothing to do with oil and gas. A swoon in prices of commodities which have always moved up and down have far less of an effect on massive years-long capital outlays than what is suggested here. So while yes some vigilance is always good, it is not something i would lose sleep over.
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