Oil prices

[Teo9969]

How much longer sub-$45.00 can even the strong players survive?

[gopokes88]

How much longer sub-$45.00 can even the strong players survive?

Define strong?

[Ronnie Jackson]

How much longer sub-$45.00 can even the strong players survive?

I’ve long thought the Chapter 11 process was far too forgiving for Debtors. A number of these companies (especially the early filers) will set themselves up to struggle for an additional three or four years. And maybe, in that time, they’ll get lucky with some pricing relief.

Biggest problem, for Oklahoma, is that the asset base is complete dog ****. Only formation that might be reasonably scalable is the Woodford and even that likely needs much higher pricing levels to attract investment.

[Teo9969]

Define strong?

I guess the "larger" players (not a <50 employee) that are also valued @ >$1B. Devon, Occidental, etc.

Excluding Shell/Exxon/Chevron/BP from that last as they're obviously very well insulated.

[gopokes88]

I guess the "larger" players (not a <50 employee) that are also valued @ >$1B. Devon, Occidental, etc.

Excluding Shell/Exxon/Chevron/BP from that last as they're obviously very well insulated.

Depending on debt structure, players like Devon/WPX/Cimarex/Parlsey/Marathon etc, they can last 2-3 more years at least.

[liirogue]

Devon announced a large cut to G&A (layoffs), and Gulfport issued a going concern warning in their latest quarterly filing.

[gopokes88]

Devon announced a large cut to G&A (layoffs), and Gulfport issued a going concern warning in their latest quarterly filing.

Heard it’s a few layoffs not major.

[Dob Hooligan]

Devon announced a large cut to G&A (layoffs), and Gulfport issued a going concern warning in their latest quarterly filing.

Regarding Gulfport, I read the recap of the filing in the Oklahoman, and there was no mention of a going concern warning. I understand the asset write down, but they were positive otherwise. Am I missing something?

[dclark87]

Regarding Gulfport, I read the recap of the filing in the Oklahoman, and there was no mention of a going concern warning. I understand the asset write down, but they were positive otherwise. Am I missing something?

Looked like they didn’t have much activity. They completed 7 net wells in the Utica, meaning they didn’t spend very much cash.

[gopokes88]

Regarding Gulfport, I read the recap of the filing in the Oklahoman, and there was no mention of a going concern warning. I understand the asset write down, but they were positive otherwise. Am I missing something?

Eh I like Jack money but he isn’t going to be the best pessimistic view on things.

[Dob Hooligan]

Eh I like Jack money but he isn’t going to be the best pessimistic view on things.

I’m going out on a limb, and speculate that the Oklahoman writer took the copy from “pr news wire” or whatever feed was placed in their inbox, pretty much copied it, and didn’t do any follow up. I googled “Gulfport going concern” this morning and found where the warning was floated out at, or near, the end of the earnings call. This appears to me to be the type of activity that Pete mentions on a regular basis when he is taking the Oklahoman to task.

[liirogue]

Regarding Gulfport, I read the recap of the filing in the Oklahoman, and there was no mention of a going concern warning. I understand the asset write down, but they were positive otherwise. Am I missing something?

The Oklahoman did not portray that accurately (shocking, I know). Gulfport's quarterly filing says their access to capital markets is impaired and their revolving credit facility matures December 2021 and they may not be able to have that extended. The 10-Q explicitly states "As a result of these uncertainties and other factors, management has concluded that there is substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."

gopokes88 I hope you are right that the layoff at Devon will be small. My friends that work there have heard it may be substantial.

[Pete]

I’m going out on a limb, and speculate that the Oklahoman writer took the copy from “pr news wire” or whatever feed was placed in their inbox, pretty much copied it, and didn’t do any follow up.

I know for a fact this is the large majority of their 'reporting'. I've employed several former reporters from the Oklahoman who confirm this and of course, I see all the press releases and then see the Oklahoman article.

They just repackage PR which are highly spun by the companies writing them, to present things in the most positive light.

[gopokes88]

The Oklahoman did not portray that accurately (shocking, I know). Gulfport's quarterly filing says their access to capital markets is impaired and their revolving credit facility matures December 2021 and they may not be able to have that extended. The 10-Q explicitly states "As a result of these uncertainties and other factors, management has concluded that there is substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."

gopokes88 I hope you are right that the layoff at Devon will be small. My friends that work there have heard it may be substantial.

It could be, it’s still pretty early. I’ll keep an ear to the ground. They’re running out of people to lay off without it effecting their ability to actually do work is what I was told.

[gopokes88]

Good things in the short term with the OPEC cuts + production declines onshore showing up.

Bad news, May 2020 versus May 2019 Oklahoma oil production is down 40%.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/#oil-tab

[StrongCider]

Not a good day when a Federal Grand Jury gets involved...

https://apnews.com/11528c3e337d4386a85ecaa7404d1a90

[Pete]

Not a good day when a Federal Grand Jury gets involved...

https://apnews.com/11528c3e337d4386a85ecaa7404d1a90

Last year, Continental filed against them and a few others in civil court.

[thunderbird]

Not a good day when a Federal Grand Jury gets involved...

https://apnews.com/11528c3e337d4386a85ecaa7404d1a90

I know two of the guys very well, it’s a sad deal for their families. Great reminder for everyone to keep it between the lines. It’s easy to make legitimate money in the business, never understood why some go this route for such small amounts of wealth.

[sooner88]

I know two of the guys very well, it’s a sad deal for their families. Great reminder for everyone to keep it between the lines. It’s easy to make legitimate money in the business, never understood why some go this route for such small amounts of wealth.

I know two of them very well as well, and all I will say is just wait until they are allowed to proceed with a fair trial.... this has been a witch hunt from the beginning.

[Pete]

I know two of them very well as well, and all I will say is just wait until they are allowed to proceed with a fair trial.... this has been a witch hunt from the beginning.

For perspective, grand jury indictments have a 93% conviction rate.

They don't indict without a ton of hard evidence.


I have no idea about this case, but virtually everyone indicted by a grand jury professes innocence then ends up convicted.

[StrongCider]

For perspective, grand jury indictments have a 93% conviction rate.

They don't indict without a ton of hard evidence.


I have no idea about this case, but virtually everyone indicted by a grand jury professes innocence then ends up convicted.

This^...I reserve any judgement when CLR brings suits against its competition, knowing full well that business is first for them and a lack of legitimate competition is in their best interest. However, a federal grand jury handing down an indictment is a hurdle that few are able to overcome. The feds do not simply throw things against the wall to see what sticks.

[thunderbird]

I know two of them very well as well, and all I will say is just wait until they are allowed to proceed with a fair trial.... this has been a witch hunt from the beginning.

I certainly hope this to be true.

[Rover]

I know two of them very well as well, and all I will say is just wait until they are allowed to proceed with a fair trial.... this has been a witch hunt from the beginning.

Seems like this should be pretty straight forward with documents and forensic accounting work. Doubt they would be indicted if a trail leading to them hasn't been established already. But, you seem to be saying that those documents and other traces are being fraudulently created in order to make it APPEAR they are guilty? Are you just vouching for their personalities as you know them, or are you privy to evidence?

[sooner88]

Seems like this should be pretty straight forward with documents and forensic accounting work. Doubt they would be indicted if a trail leading to them hasn't been established already. But, you seem to be saying that those documents and other traces are being fraudulently created in order to make it APPEAR they are guilty? Are you just vouching for their personalities as you know them, or are you privy to evidence?

All that I can say is that all evidence was not allowed to be presented prior to the indictment and the testimony heard will very likely be disproved, with a high likelihood of a perjury charge.

[Teo9969]

Seems like this should be pretty straight forward with documents and forensic accounting work. Doubt they would be indicted if a trail leading to them hasn't been established already. But, you seem to be saying that those documents and other traces are being fraudulently created in order to make it APPEAR they are guilty? Are you just vouching for their personalities as you know them, or are you privy to evidence?

Holy crap, Rover. Back off the rhetoric. I've never seen so many words stuffed into a person's mouth before.