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Thread: Oil prices

  1. #201
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    Feb 2013
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    Default Re: Oil prices

    With all these prices going down I've noticed the spot price of propane has gone down sharply, which is a good contrast from last year. Anyone purchased it recently and know what a retail amount is?

  2. #202

  3. #203

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    Correlation does not equal causation.

    Oil crashed (along with everything else) because of the market crash, not the other way around.

  4. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    A lot of times when energy gets cheap the economy will pick up. I think the financial markets are currently way better off than they were in 2008.

  5. #205

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    Correlation does not equal causation.

    Oil crashed (along with everything else) because of the market crash, not the other way around.
    Bingo. Oil prices crashed in the mid 80's and late 90's, both of which were followed by a few years of very strong market and economic growth, which eventually pushed oil prices back up.

    I hope you are not making investment decisions based on fly-by-night analysts like this one, PluPan.

  6. #206

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I agree there is no comparison between this oil price plunge and 2008. The 2008 plunge was specifically in response to the financial crisis.

  7. #207

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Dow plunges 331 points as oil falls below $50 - Jan. 5, 2015

    It looks like things could get worse especially if there is an overall market correction like mentioned in this article. This oil crash could actually result in a potential financial crisis if stocks start to tank.

    What really makes me made about all of this, is that it seems to be driven by pure speculation. They put the fear in people which is causing panic and major sell offs.

  8. #208

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post

    What really makes me made about all of this, is that it seems to be driven by pure speculation. They put the fear in people which is causing panic and major sell offs.
    It's the reverse of what happened in the summer of 2008 when speculators drove the price up to $150 without fundamentals to support it. The price will always correct itself. If $50 oil is too low it will go back up.

  9. #209

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post
    Dow plunges 331 points as oil falls below $50 - Jan. 5, 2015

    It looks like things could get worse especially if there is an overall market correction like mentioned in this article. This oil crash could actually result in a potential financial crisis if stocks start to tank.

    What really makes me made about all of this, is that it seems to be driven by pure speculation. They put the fear in people which is causing panic and major sell offs.
    If the market crashes due to speculation then it really wasn't that healthy to begin with. This is a healthy correction the market is undergoing after 7 years of FED intervention. We can expect some volatility while still trying to recover from 2008. Up and Down 300 points on the DOW is the new norm.

  10. #210

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    If the market crashes due to speculation then it really wasn't that healthy to begin with. This is a healthy correction the market is undergoing after 7 years of FED intervention. We can expect some volatility while still trying to recover from 2008. Up and Down 300 points on the DOW is the new norm.
    I guess that is why the FEDS did not touch the interest rates, they knew it would cause a lot of problems with the market

  11. #211

    Default Re: Oil prices

    The quicker oil crashes the quicker OPEC members go broke, production declines and the price rebounds. Better for oil to take a beating and see production cuts in march then hover at $55-60 for a year.

  12. Default Re: Oil prices

    There may be a political element to the price decline, but it's not speculation. It's primarily market forces - basic supply and demand. The US is flooding the world with crude while demand is in decline. Voila! The result is a price decline.

  13. #213

    Default Re: Oil prices

    From what I can tell over fb and local news fb sites, sh*t has been hitting a fan all around the state with people getting laid off.

    I have some well educated close friends who have profited handsomely the last few years and they will weather the storm fine, but general deplahomans who have no education and saved nothing....Well they are doing as expected with their stay at home baby mommas flipping out on local new sites.

  14. #214

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by ylouder View Post
    From what I can tell over fb and local news fb sites, sh*t has been hitting a fan all around the state with people getting laid off.

    I have some well educated close friends who have profited handsomely the last few years and they will weather the storm fine, but general deplahomans who have no education and saved nothing....Well they are doing as expected with their stay at home baby mommas flipping out on local new sites.
    I've seen this sentiment a lot lately with people who don't work in the oil industry. This is an unfair opinion from people who know very little about the work and the salary distribution in the oil field. If you look at pay distribution for a company like devon, you will find it heavily skewed toward lower salaries with an average salary somewhere between $40k and $60k. These are the people being laid off. Not the folks making greater than $150k. Now, throw in the fact that the folks working in the field are the people getting laid off right now. Some of these guys make decent money, but generally, they might make $15-$20/hr...good for somebody with a high-school education. Keep in mind that these guys have the most dangerous jobs. I know several guys who have suffered career ending injuries while doing their jobs.

    You might say these guys are reaping the rewards of high oil, but they work hard for their money. They work in extreme heat/cold and extreme weather. They handle heavy equipment and often work more than 12 hours at a time. They are earning their money...probably more so than anybody in any other field. For them to lose their jobs is devastating as they have limited employment opportunities elsewhere, and you mention they should be saving their money. Well, that money those guys makes doesn't go very far. I know quite a few people in this position.

  15. #215

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Chicken In The Rough View Post
    There may be a political element to the price decline, but it's not speculation. It's primarily market forces - basic supply and demand. The US is flooding the world with crude while demand is in decline. Voila! The result is a price decline.
    Sadly, this is like deja vu. This industry did the exact same thing with gas not too long ago.

    It really is frustrating, but wall street likes growth. I don't see what is wrong with companies just finding a point at which they can make a decent profit and maintain those levels. Why do companies always need to show growth? Why is stability a bad thing? If we could just have consistent, stable companies, we might not see the volatility in the markets that you do today. Alas, that is a dream world...

  16. #216

    Default Re: Oil prices

    A few months ago my wife and I were spending approx 120 dollars a week in gas to go only to work each day, daycare each day, and the grocery store once a week - All of these activities happened within city of okc limits. They also happed with newer and (paid off) relatively fuel efficent vehicles.

    So I'm not shedding alot of tears of people who cant budget during good and bad times just like the rest of society has been forced to do the last few years.

  17. #217

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by ylouder View Post
    A few months ago my wife and I were spending approx 120 dollars a week in gas to go only to work each day, daycare each day, and the grocery store once a week - All of these activities happened within city of okc limits. They also happed with newer and (paid off) relatively fuel efficent vehicles.

    So I'm not shedding alot of tears of people who can't budget during good and bad times.
    I also call bull on this argument too. What's your gas bill now? $60? So you save $240/month on gas? If you only have $240 of wiggle room in your budget, you might want to take a look at your expenses. Also, if you are spending that much with "fuel efficient" cars, you might want to move a little closer to your work and/or daycare. I drive a ram 1500 everyday and I spend $80 every two weeks with the high gas prices. That is 37 mile round trip to work plus other errands that I need to run, so spare me...

    The point I'm trying to make is the amount of money typical people are saving from the drop in gas prices is fairly small. The biggest savers are people who drive for their jobs. I can understand their stance on the matter.

  18. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post
    I've seen this sentiment a lot lately with people who don't work in the oil industry. This is an unfair opinion from people who know very little about the work and the salary distribution in the oil field. If you look at pay distribution for a company like devon, you will find it heavily skewed toward lower salaries with an average salary somewhere between $40k and $60k. These are the people being laid off. Not the folks making greater than $150k. Now, throw in the fact that the folks working in the field are the people getting laid off right now. Some of these guys make decent money, but generally, they might make $15-$20/hr...good for somebody with a high-school education. Keep in mind that these guys have the most dangerous jobs. I know several guys who have suffered career ending injuries while doing their jobs.

    You might say these guys are reaping the rewards of high oil, but they work hard for their money. They work in extreme heat/cold and extreme weather. They handle heavy equipment and often work more than 12 hours at a time. They are earning their money...probably more so than anybody in any other field. For them to lose their jobs is devastating as they have limited employment opportunities elsewhere, and you mention they should be saving their money. Well, that money those guys makes doesn't go very far. I know quite a few people in this position.
    Dont pay much attention to any of ylouder's energy related posts. He is one of the most irrational posters on the site when it comes to his bias against the oil and gas industry. He's the first and only person I've chosen to use the ignore feature on here.

    I know many people getting laid off on the service side of the industry, some have saved better than others, but regardless it is not easy to go from making $100-$300+ per day, to nothing when you're supporting a family. Hopefully they are able to ride this out and find other work in the meantime.

  19. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post
    I also call bull on this argument too. What's your gas bill now? $60? So you save $240/month on gas? If you only have $240 of wiggle room in your budget, you might want to take a look at your expenses. Also, if you are spending that much with "fuel efficient" cars, you might want to move a little closer to your work and/or daycare. I drive a ram 1500 everyday and I spend $80 every two weeks with the high gas prices. That is 37 mile round trip to work plus other errands that I need to run, so spare me...

    The point I'm trying to make is the amount of money typical people are saving from the drop in gas prices is fairly small. The biggest savers are people who drive for their jobs. I can understand their stance on the matter.
    Or fly for there jobs, airlines are doing pretty well right now as are most transportation related companies. I guess time will tell what affect this will have on the rest of the market.

  20. #220

    Default Re: Oil prices

    This summer each Sunday when I put gas in our cars (small cuv and pickup).. cuv was between 37-52 dollars, truck was 68- 88 was the highest I saw. (Non ethanol either from 711 or oncue, 711 is almost always cheaper)

    So the drop in prices is very welcomed for the rest of us.

  21. #221

  22. #222

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by PhiAlpha View Post
    Dont pay much attention to any of ylouder's energy related posts. He is one of the most irrational posters on the site when it comes to his bias against the oil and gas industry. He's the first and only person I've chosen to use the ignore feature on here.

    I know many people getting laid off on the service side of the industry, some have saved better than others, but regardless it is not easy to go from making $100-$300+ per day, to nothing when you're supporting a family. Hopefully they are able to ride this out and find other work in the meantime.
    I posted info about the research that was done over waste water injection wells causing our state to become more sciemically active than california...I was so wrong and irrational because think of the jobs.

    Actual independent research and facts are so biased, better block them out.

  23. #223

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post
    Sadly, this is like deja vu. This industry did the exact same thing with gas not too long ago.

    It really is frustrating, but wall street likes growth. I don't see what is wrong with companies just finding a point at which they can make a decent profit and maintain those levels. Why do companies always need to show growth? Why is stability a bad thing? If we could just have consistent, stable companies, we might not see the volatility in the markets that you do today. Alas, that is a dream world...
    I think when companies were privately owned("back in the day") the owner and or owners did indeed think of stability and modest growth. The folks who run these companies now are beholden more to quarterly profits for the shareholders. Short term profitability over sustainability is the order of the "new" day. Just my opinion though.

  24. #224

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    CLR and SD will most likely be the first to have significant issues. Continental had most of their oil production hedged at higher prices, and completely cut all of their hedges thinking oil would skyrocket. Obviously that does not seem to be the case. Some of the other companies have some of their production hedged next year, so they may be able to hold it all together for a while.

    SD is just cheap and doesn't have a lot of cash. With the price action, they can be bought for a little over a billion dollars. Or they can sell their assets for el cheap if need be.

    Great time to own an airline right now, but OKC and Oklahoma as a whole are at tremendous risk right now. Time will tell if we are diversified enough, and I don't believe we are. Everyone that lives in OKC either directly works for an O&G company or have a close relative that does. Every family in Oklahoma will have some issue if prices stay low for long.

    The extra $10 a week it costs to fill up the car is a small price to pay for the exponential quality of life increases we are seeing in Central Oklahoma.
    I'd hate to work for this company at this point, its about to become a penny stock. #JumpShipIfYouCan

  25. #225

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Jersey Boss View Post
    I think when companies were privately owned("back in the day") the owner and or owners did indeed think of stability and modest growth. The folks who run these companies now are beholden more to quarterly profits for the shareholders. Short term profitability over sustainability is the order of the "new" day. Just my opinion though.
    This is very true. An old school style of running a business would do this country a world of good.

    Fun thing is short term profitability wasn't even that much of a concern. With everyone thinking Peak Oil had happened, and that it was impossible to over saturate the market in crude. The mania part of the cycle began. Many companies have been so over leveraged they haven't been producing profits in the last few years because they have been borrowing so much money to increase drilling as fast a possible. We are now entering the Panic phase. Whether we will see a full Crash.. that remains to be seen.

    I think Oklahoma will be ok. Large layoffs I wouldn't be surprised from all the big firms. There wasn't a lot of over building real estate wise, so I think when oil prices rise, and correct themselves to $60-80 a barrel, things will pick up where they left off. Houston in particular might see a pretty step local recession. The shear amount of inventory under construction down there from office, industrial, and multifamily is mind blowing - and 70% of it is oil related. If oil prices can recover by summer I don't think much will be felt anyone. However, a lot of the oil investors and business operators are taking out new hedges for 24 - 32 months at $40 a barrel. Who knows what will happen though.

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