Oil prices

[Teo9969]

Yikes. Gopokes88, do you see any silver lining in any of this for Oklahoma? This all seems so grim. Consolidation weeding out bad companies? I really don't know much about this industry. I know my brother has moved on from O&G and is working in a different sector altogether. He was with a drilling company in OKC but was laid off around thanksgiving.

I would think at least one silver lining in all of this is that within Tulsa/OKC we have more diversified economies than we did in the 80s and the major players in the banking sector seem like they're at least not irresponsibly beholden too O&G, though I can't imagine this won't hurt everyone across the board. This diversity along with actually having a banking sector that won't fold overnight this time around should allow the tides to turn in terms of who "runs the show" in the state.

Paycom (which is now valued higher than any other two publicly traded OKC companies combined) pulled advertising at OU due to the recent turmoil the university encountered during black history month (and prior), publicly lambasting the leadership. 10 years ago, the university would probably have laughed off the maneuver, but without energy companies in a position to pick up the slack, the University is in a more precarious position to alienate those interests and the dollars they represent. Whether you agree with Paycom's stance or not isn't the point, but rather that the voices state leaders are beholden to is about to become quite a bit more diverse and likely forevermore. Even if oil were to miraculously get back to >$100/barrel 10-15 years from now, the damage to the industry's leverage over this state will already be done.

[mugofbeer]

KSA cut their official selling price for April. Indicating a market share was is coming. Well nose dive into the 20s within weeks.

DONT BUY ANY E&P STOCKS. They are all going bankrupt or close to it. (Minus the super majors.)

Unless you are a licensed investment advisor and disclose yourself as such, you need to be very careful about making such statements. The SEC and FINRA have gotten very sticky with "unqualified and unlicensed" people posting clear investment "advice."

[gopokes88]

Yikes. Gopokes88, do you see any silver lining in any of this for Oklahoma? This all seems so grim. Consolidation weeding out bad companies? I really don't know much about this industry. I know my brother has moved on from O&G and is working in a different sector altogether. He was with a drilling company in OKC but was laid off around thanksgiving.

Not really any silver lining.

The actual oilfields in Oklahoma are toast. This is Armageddon till WTI recovers into the $70s.

This is like September 2008 moment for banks where they all frantically started merging. That’s going to happen or at least should with E&Ps. DVN and CLR are positioned to be acquirers.

CHK will go chapter 11 and emerge with very little debt. Not sure what will happen after that. Whether the grab someone with their strong balance sheet or get scooped up. Since they’re still extremely gas heavy they’ll likely be the acquirer.

[gopokes88]

Unless you are a licensed investment advisor and disclose yourself as such, you need to be very careful about making such statements. The SEC and FINRA have gotten very sticky with "unqualified and unlicensed" people posting clear investment "advice."

Lol. Ok guy.

[C_M_25]

Not really any silver lining.

The actual oilfields in Oklahoma are toast. This is Armageddon till WTI recovers into the $70s.

This is like September 2008 moment for banks where they all frantically started merging. That’s going to happen or at least should with E&Ps. DVN and CLR are positioned to be acquirers.

CHK will go chapter 11 and emerge with very little debt. Not sure what will happen after that. Whether the grab someone with their strong balance sheet or get scooped up. Since they’re still extremely gas heavy they’ll likely be the acquirer.

If chk gets their debt restructured, I could see them actually being acquired.

Chapter 11 is going to be painful. I know they are still heavy on staff, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see major layoffs soon.

[BBatesokc]

Unless you are a licensed investment advisor and disclose yourself as such, you need to be very careful about making such statements. The SEC and FINRA have gotten very sticky with "unqualified and unlicensed" people posting clear investment "advice."

Don't tell that to the plethora of investment advice radio shows, TV shows, blogs, podcasts, blah, blah.......

[gopokes88]

If chk gets their debt restructured, I could see them actually being acquired.

Chapter 11 is going to be painful. I know they are still heavy on staff, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see major layoffs soon.

Problem is they’re still a major gas player and their market cap will be in the 8-10 billion dollar range post 11. There’s only a handful of companies that could bite that much off and no one wants gas.

[OKCRT]

I've got myself stuck with some CLR stock that I purchased in the low 40's and $25. I don't need the money any time soon, but I'm starting to wonder if I should dump it and cut my losses. I don't see anything on the horizon that will give oil any positive momentum.

ETA, long time lurker but I rarely chime in. I appreciate all the conversation on this thread.

Might be a good time to average down as prices fall if you can wait it out. I don't think prices stay down forever.

[Pete]

OnCue at May and Hefner has gas for $1.67. Crazy.

[OKIENW]

Might be a good time to average down as prices fall if you can wait it out. I don't think prices stay down forever.

Yea, I've backed away from the ledge a little since last night. I have no need to access the money in the foreseeable future so I'm going to watch things a bit and look to average down. This is a perfect storm of bad stuff happening to the oil industry right now.

[OKC Guy]

Question/comment:

To me this is the best time to increase gas tax. I am not one for high taxes but we have some of the lowest gas taxes around. I would like to see a 5-6 cent increase dedicated to roads for long term road stability. Maybe 2 to state roads, 2 to county and 2 to city or something like that.

Would any increase need to be voted on? Or can legislators do it? We have been rebuilding roads but its just a bandaid and the funding will run out at some point. Maybe a city gas tax?

We could structure it based on oil prices. Something like 5 cents OKC gas tax with a sliding scale and as oil prices increase the tax decreases. So 5 cents when under $50 a barrel and then goes to 4 between $50-$65 and then to 3 when between $65-$80 and above $80 goes to 2.

[gopokes88]

Futures indicating oil opens at $32!!!! a barrel here in a few hours. That’s like a 25% drop.

https://twitter.com/scottwapnercnbc/...427829248?s=21

[OKIENW]

Futures indicating oil opens at $32!!!! a barrel here in a few hours. That’s like a 25% drop.

https://twitter.com/scottwapnercnbc/...427829248?s=21

I expected to see $30's very soon, but not low 30's this fast. At this rate we will be in the 20's this week, and maybe teens soon if someone doesn't blink.

[OKC Guy]

Futures indicating oil opens at $32!!!! a barrel here in a few hours. That’s like a 25% drop.

https://twitter.com/scottwapnercnbc/...427829248?s=21

So who has best ability to withstand low prices, Saudi or Russia?

[gopokes88]

So who has best ability to withstand low prices, Saudi or Russia?

Saudi’s.

Saudi lifting cost is like $2-3/bbl. They can add 2 million barrels a day overnight.

Russia can withstand the shock but they only have a few 100k they can ramp up to offset the price declines. They could move forward on new projects to expand but it would be tough to green light big expansion at prices this low.

[OKC_Chipper]

What does the industry in Oklahoma look like in 12-18 months?

[gopokes88]

What does the industry in Oklahoma look like in 12-18 months?

The fields themselves are dead. Maybe 10-15 rigs running. Maybe.

Devon and CLR are probably still around and have acquired a bolt on company or two.

[PhiAlpha]

Futures indicating oil opens at $32!!!! a barrel here in a few hours. That’s like a 25% drop.

https://twitter.com/scottwapnercnbc/...427829248?s=21

Ewww, gross.

[gopokes88]

For those that claim yay at least it will be good for the consumer. Not exactly. That represents pre-oil super power thinking. Although most okies instinctively know this. Here’s some data for you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-...-collapse.html

[C_M_25]

So whats everyone’s plans should they not make it through the week still employed?

[BG918]

What does the industry in Oklahoma look like in 12-18 months?

Lots of good paying jobs lost and recession, unfortunately.

[gopokes88]

Just opened at $34.75 in Asian trading. Yikes.

[gopokes88]

Now $30. Complete meltdown.

https://twitter.com/araj_energy/stat...717855746?s=21

[gopokes88]

Hamm isn’t going to be a billionaire by the end of the week

[soonermike81]

The fields themselves are dead. Maybe 10-15 rigs running. Maybe.

This blows my mind.