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Thread: Oil prices

  1. #1451

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by king183 View Post
    If a veto petition is filed against legislation, a temporary injunction put on the legislation until the voters decide. So, if Coburn's group gets a veto petition on the ballot, the increases are put on hold until the election. This also means teacher and support personnel pay increases will be delayed given provisions in the legislation tying it to the tax increases being in effect.
    Lovely.

  2. #1452

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by king183 View Post
    FYI: GPT won't be 5% until the end of June. All of the tax increases go into effect 90 days after the governor signed them. They could also be delayed if Tom Coburn's group gets a veto petition on the ballot.
    I don't think there is enough time for Dr. No to get it on the ballot. It has to clear OKSC as far as the language. Then they have to get the signatures. After that there will be challenges and signature verification. Ain't happening.

  3. #1453

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Although slim it's still a possibility. But yes if the 5% GPT goes into effect and oil stays around $70 (or higher) that will mean significantly higher revenue for the state.

  4. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Jersey Boss View Post
    I don't think there is enough time for Dr. No to get it on the ballot. It has to clear OKSC as far as the language. Then they have to get the signatures. After that there will be challenges and signature verification. Ain't happening.
    Personally, I hope you're correct, but the signature threshold for a veto petition is significantly lower than an initiative petition, so they will have a much easier time. The language for the ballot will also be straightforward as it will simply be a veto of a House Bill, rather than amending the constitution or implementing a new law. My hope is the Coburn Cohort will realize they will likely lose at the ballot box and suffer political damage due to causing a delay in teacher pay raises and so decide to focus their efforts elsewhere.

  5. #1455

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by king183 View Post
    Personally, I hope you're correct, but the signature threshold for a veto petition is significantly lower than an initiative petition, so they will have a much easier time. The language for the ballot will also be straightforward as it will simply be a veto of a House Bill, rather than amending the constitution or implementing a new law. My hope is the Coburn Cohort will realize they will likely lose at the ballot box and suffer political damage due to causing a delay in teacher pay raises and so decide to focus their efforts elsewhere.
    I think they have 90 days to get this all done starting right now, since this measure was passed in the second session and thats now sine die.

  6. #1456

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    Although slim it's still a possibility. But yes if the 5% GPT goes into effect and oil stays around $70 (or higher) that will mean significantly higher revenue for the state.
    Not as high as you think. We’re still mostly a natural gas producer and natty gas prices still have 5+ years before they recover. Higher, but not crazy higher.

  7. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by onthestrip View Post
    I think they have 90 days to get this all done starting right now, since this measure was passed in the second session and thats now sine die.
    90 days from governor's signature, which occurred March 29. So June 27 the *law* goes into effect, though the tax increases begin July 1.

    Not as high as you think. We’re still mostly a natural gas producer and natty gas prices still have 5+ years before they recover. Higher, but not crazy higher.
    Yeah, I'm wondering what price per barrel the OTC used to estimate revenues under the higher rate. Anyone know?

  8. #1458

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    Although slim it's still a possibility. But yes if the 5% GPT goes into effect and oil stays around $70 (or higher) that will mean significantly higher revenue for the state.
    Twitter postings causing a drop in prices.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/oil-...n-a-tweet.html

  9. #1459

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Jersey Boss View Post
    Twitter postings causing a drop in prices.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/oil-...n-a-tweet.html
    There's nothing he can really do. He's such a simpleton. 49/50 states benefit when oil prices go higher. The supply chain of the oilfield is that wide and complex.

  10. #1460

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    There's nothing he can really do. He's such a simpleton. 49/50 states benefit when oil prices go higher. The supply chain of the oilfield is that wide and complex.
    I'm sure that Saudi Arabia is having a good chuckle at his tweet. If nothing else, it emboldens them to continue the OPEC output cut through the first 6 months of 2019. Good one, Trump.

  11. #1461

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by pw405 View Post
    I'm sure that Saudi Arabia is having a good chuckle at his tweet. If nothing else, it emboldens them to continue the OPEC output cut through the first 6 months of 2019. Good one, Trump.
    it's basically a tweet from 2005, high oil prices are great for energy superpowers. the USA is now an energy superpower.

    Even greenies like high oil prices, sales of hybrids go up.

  12. #1462

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    it's basically a tweet from 2005, high oil prices are great for energy superpowers. the USA is now an energy superpower.

    Even greenies like high oil prices, sales of hybrids go up.
    The tweet was posted 4-20-2018 @ 5;57 am

  13. #1463

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Jersey Boss View Post
    The tweet was posted 4-20-2018 @ 5;57 am

    It a tweet from 2005 in the sense he has mentality that the oil market functions like it's 2005, pre-shale when higher oil prices hurt a lot more than they do now.

    Most people probably don't know places like Wisconsin benefit from high oil prices, http://host.madison.com/wsj/business...d22796bfa.html

    That wasn't the case in 2005

  14. #1464

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by king183 View Post
    90 days from governor's signature, which occurred March 29. So June 27 the *law* goes into effect, though the tax increases begin July 1.



    Yeah, I'm wondering what price per barrel the OTC used to estimate revenues under the higher rate. Anyone know?
    “The estimates were based on oil selling at average price of $53.08 per barrel and 156 million taxable barrels of oil. For natural gas, the estimate is $2.99 per million cubic feet of natural gas, with 2.4 billion taxable mcf produced.”


    http://m.newsok.com/teacher-pay-hike...1?rotator=true

  15. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    “The estimates were based on oil selling at average price of $53.08 per barrel and 156 million taxable barrels of oil. For natural gas, the estimate is $2.99 per million cubic feet of natural gas, with 2.4 billion taxable mcf produced.”


    http://m.newsok.com/teacher-pay-hike...1?rotator=true
    Perfect. Thank you for finding that. I emailed OTC to ask, but they had not responded.

  16. #1466

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Some interesting info on the global oil markets:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...d-lower-higher

    In summary, they believe that OPEC is not capable of bringing the oil markets back to a supply balance in 2018. Other bullish oil price factors include:

    Angola, Venezuela, & Mexico's production are coming in lower than expected.
    To reach the consensus oil analyst price targets for 2019, producers would need an impossible amount of production growth this year.
    Flat OPEC production leaves a supply/demand deficit of 1.2MM bbls through the end of 2018 .
    Growing global oil demand
    OECD oil storage levels below the 5 year average on a forward demand basis
    Some risk that Iranian production can fall if sanctions are reinstated further reducing the supply/demand balance

    Should be an interesting year... seems that the lack of investment to grow future oil supplies is starting to come to fruition.

  17. #1467

    Default Re: Oil prices

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/uhk2xxq9vf...1818.pdf?dl=0#

    In the event you feel like reading an 86 page .pdf that is calling for $100 oil by next year, see DropBox link above

  18. #1468

    Default Re: Oil prices

    So uh $71 is nice.

    Oklahoma sweet is $67.

    WTI could be at $80 by June

  19. #1469
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    Default Re: Oil prices

    Oil prices have always managed to rebound. My concern at this point is how much will prices continue to rise.

  20. Default Re: Oil prices

    There is no way Trump is truly trying to talk oil prices down. Neither do I think he wants to see them up significantly because it would undermine the economy. He's just jawboning to score political points and pressure.

  21. #1471

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    There is no way Trump is truly trying to talk oil prices down. Neither do I think he wants to see them up significantly because it would undermine the economy. He's just jawboning to score political points and pressure.
    It’s just jawboning. There’s really nothing he can do.

    And higher oil prices don’t hurt the country like they used too, were an oil superpower now. It’s a slight net negative to slight net positive depending on which economist you ask.

    Just like the crash didn’t boost the economy, higher prices won’t hurt.

  22. #1472

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    It’s just jawboning. There’s really nothing he can do.

    And higher oil prices don’t hurt the country like they used too, were an oil superpower now. It’s a slight net negative to slight net positive depending on which economist you ask.

    Just like the crash didn’t boost the economy, higher prices won’t hurt.
    Lower oil prices are good for most of the country. For Oklahoma, oil needs to be at a price that isn't too expensive yet isn't too cheap.

    It's no coincidence though that for most of the country, the economy finally started to "feel" better when oil prices crashed. Most people here don't realize it because Oklahoma has really slowed since 2014. However, things are much better in most of the country. I think of oil gets back up to $100 or higher, it's going to start impacting the US economy negatively.

  23. #1473

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Lower oil prices are good for most of the country. For Oklahoma, oil needs to be at a price that isn't too expensive yet isn't too cheap.

    It's no coincidence though that for most of the country, the economy finally started to "feel" better when oil prices crashed. Most people here don't realize it because Oklahoma has really slowed since 2014. However, things are much better in most of the country. I think of oil gets back up to $100 or higher, it's going to start impacting the US economy negatively.
    This is all eerily similar to how everything was before the last recession. Not sure if we're in 2007 or 2008 right now, meaning do we have another year left in this cycle or are we standing at the edge of the cliff. While I don't think it will be as severe as the last one you can't have all of the recent growth we've seen without a correction, and in fact it is needed especially in the "hot" markets that are extremely over-valued like Austin, Denver, San Francisco and Nashville, to name a few. Just a feeling but I think those cities will be hit HARD and more stable places like OKC won't see as many effects.

    What will be interesting to watch is how oil prices respond. If you remember last time prices shot through the roof before collapsing and then slowly recovered before collapsing again in 2014. Obviously the industry and global market is a lot different than it was 10 years ago so it's hard to know what will happen this time.


  24. #1474

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Lower oil prices are good for most of the country. For Oklahoma, oil needs to be at a price that isn't too expensive yet isn't too cheap.

    It's no coincidence though that for most of the country, the economy finally started to "feel" better when oil prices crashed. Most people here don't realize it because Oklahoma has really slowed since 2014. However, things are much better in most of the country. I think of oil gets back up to $100 or higher, it's going to start impacting the US economy negatively.
    Well the modern economic thought is that higher oil prices are basically a wash now economically. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/risi...s-economy.html
    The extra pain at the pump just moves money from one sector to another but the increase in CAPEX by oil companies helps steel, sand, machinery, etc etc.

    And I think your theory that everyone “felt better” about the economy has little to do with oil prices crashing and much more to do with trump’s election, unemployment dropping, stock market rising and gdp growth accelerating. Consumer sentiment picked up in ‘17 not ‘15 & ‘16

  25. #1475
    Join Date
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    Default Re: Oil prices

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Real trend of GDP, not hype.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Real trend of DJIA, not hype.

    You can see the trends started way before the Don hype. After the last GOP era trashed the economy the recovery started strong way before the fake news of the new GOP led renaissance.

    If you really want to be awakened, watch the deficit now explode and financial regulations and controls disappear. Add in rising interest rates, rising energy costs, and general awakening of inflation ....

    BTW, oil prices aren’t rising because of new domestic demand, but because of threats of instability on the world market as well as a general government attitude towards green energy and global warming. Burning polluting fossil fuels is great with the far right wing GOP.

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