Oil prices

[onthestrip]

Not only did the oil and gas industry get a sweetheart deal last year with a very low gross production tax setup last year, they also get tax rebates for marginal and stripper wells. We pay them essentially to keep producing during low price times. Its going to cost the state about $40+ mil this year and possibly $158 mil next year, because the state refunds 6/7 of the 7% gross production taxes they pay. And the Hamm and his other oil buddies want to say we are giving too much to wind producers? What bizzarro world do they live in?

Unprofitable Wells Now a Big Tax Break | Oklahoma Watch

[gopokes88]

Not only did the oil and gas industry get a sweetheart deal last year with a very low gross production tax setup last year, they also get tax rebates for marginal and stripper wells. We pay them essentially to keep producing during low price times. Its going to cost the state about $40+ mil this year and possibly $158 mil next year, because the state refunds 6/7 of the 7% gross production taxes they pay. And the Hamm and his other oil buddies want to say we are giving too much to wind producers? What bizzarro world do they live in?

Unprofitable Wells Now a Big Tax Break | Oklahoma Watch

Take it to politics.

[gopokes88]

US oil closes at $38.34, surges 13 pct in March

I think we're going sideways until that meeting on April 17th, at which point they better get something done. Inventories stocks declining as we move into summer driving season could provide some support.

[mkjeeves]

Not only did the oil and gas industry get a sweetheart deal last year with a very low gross production tax setup last year, they also get tax rebates for marginal and stripper wells. We pay them essentially to keep producing during low price times. Its going to cost the state about $40+ mil this year and possibly $158 mil next year, because the state refunds 6/7 of the 7% gross production taxes they pay. And the Hamm and his other oil buddies want to say we are giving too much to wind producers? What bizzarro world do they live in?



Unprofitable Wells Now a Big Tax Break | Oklahoma Watch

Oklahoma

[zorobabel]

Russian Oil Output Rises to Record as Production Freeze in Doubt

Russia’s oil output set a post-Soviet high in March as the success of a proposed crude production freeze between OPEC members and other major producers appeared to be in doubt.

Russian production of crude and a light oil called condensate climbed 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier to 10.912 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. That narrowly beat the previous high of 10.910 million barrels in January.

...

Russian oil exports rose 10 percent to 5.59 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry data.

[gopokes88]

41.75. The bulls are out. If we have another inventory drop this week that could push it higher.

[Teo9969]

Next goal for Brent would be ~$47 (About a 5% gain). Be nice to hit that in the next 30 days.

[gopokes88]

Next goal for Brent would be ~$47 (About a 5% gain). Be nice to hit that in the next 30 days.

If we get an actual deal out of Doha, Brent could touch $50, wti $45 and that's right as summer driving season ramps up. In the meantime suv and truck sales are at an all time high. The frack log and a rising rig count would cap the upside but I think we might be out of $30 oil.

[gopokes88]

American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data for the week ended April 8

Crude Oil inventory build 6.2 mln barrels expected build of 2.1mln barrels
Cushing Crude Oil draw 1.9 mln barrels
Gasoline draw 1.58mln barrels
Distillate draw 530K barrels

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data due tomorrow morning 9.30 ET with consensus estimate for tomorrow's crude stock build of 2.1mln barrels

WTI Crude May Futures fell around 60 cents to $41.58 on the news on globex in electronic trading drown from today's May contract settlement of $42.16

Traders Community

That honestly could go either way, the bulls will love the draw in Cushing, gasoline draw, and distillate draw. The bears will love the big 6.2 million build.

[OkiePoke]

And then we have the meeting Sunday... Who knows what will happen next week.

[gopokes88]

What to watch for tomorrow.

Will oil rally have legs as JPMorgan reports?

[mimino]

American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data for the week ended April 8

Crude Oil inventory build 6.2 mln barrels expected build of 2.1mln barrels
Cushing Crude Oil draw 1.9 mln barrels
Gasoline draw 1.58mln barrels
Distillate draw 530K barrels

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data due tomorrow morning 9.30 ET with consensus estimate for tomorrow's crude stock build of 2.1mln barrels

WTI Crude May Futures fell around 60 cents to $41.58 on the news on globex in electronic trading drown from today's May contract settlement of $42.16

Traders Community

That honestly could go either way, the bulls will love the draw in Cushing, gasoline draw, and distillate draw. The bears will love the big 6.2 million build.

Haven't looked too closely at this, but could very well be increased imports. Once again. Last week saw imports decline...

[chuck5815]

If we get an actual deal out of Doha, Brent could touch $50, wti $45 and that's right as summer driving season ramps up. In the meantime suv and truck sales are at an all time high. The frack log and a rising rig count would cap the upside but I think we might be out of $30 oil.

I agree to a point. There are many, many DUCs on the pond.

But the oil services industry has been devastated more so than any other part of the sector. Most of them have slashed personnel to the point where it won't be easy to get out there and frack all of the DUCs.

That's why I feel like the Bear's DUC narrative is somewhat flawed.

[gopokes88]

The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.6 million barrels, bringing the total in storage to 536.5 million barrels in the previous week.

But a larger than expected draw in gasoline inventories softened the blow of soaring crude stocks. Gasoline fell by 4.2 million barrels to 239.76 million, compared with an analyst forecast of a 1.4 million barrel draw.

"There's this gasoline demand and it's otherworldly. I can't begin to describe it any other way," said Carl Larry, director of business development for oil and gas at Frost & Sullivan.

"Without a doubt, we're going to see record gas demand in the U.S. this year and that might even hit 10M b/d."

US oil slips 0.97 pct after hitting 2016 highs

[mimino]

The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.6 million barrels, bringing the total in storage to 536.5 million barrels in the previous week.

But a larger than expected draw in gasoline inventories softened the blow of soaring crude stocks. Gasoline fell by 4.2 million barrels to 239.76 million, compared with an analyst forecast of a 1.4 million barrel draw.

"There's this gasoline demand and it's otherworldly. I can't begin to describe it any other way," said Carl Larry, director of business development for oil and gas at Frost & Sullivan.

"Without a doubt, we're going to see record gas demand in the U.S. this year and that might even hit 10M b/d."

US oil slips 0.97 pct after hitting 2016 highs

Yup, and imports were higher, just as thought. Production finally broke down into high 8s as well. Input to refineries was lower, hence the huge(r) gasoline draw, methinks. It's very interesting to observe these trends and what might come next. I quit watching TV soap operas and instead follow oil news nowadays.

[gopokes88]

Yup, and imports were higher, just as thought. Production finally broke down into high 8s as well. Input to refineries was lower, hence the huge(r) gasoline draw, methinks. It's very interesting to observe these trends and what might come next. I quit watching TV soap operas and instead follow oil news nowadays.

Needed more drama?

[PhiAlpha]

Needed more drama?

[ou48A]

All eyes are on DOHA

[gopokes88]

All eyes are on DOHA

Next week is going to be a blood bath. The meeting is going to disappoint and Brent/WTI will plunge Brent probably $37 and wti $35. Traders are just waiting for confirmation. The market is in this weird cycle of plunge oil and scare OPEC, make OPEC talk seriously about oversupply, oil rises, OPEC does nothing, plunge oil.

[jn1780]

Next week is going to be a blood bath. The meeting is going to disappoint and Brent/WTI will plunge Brent probably $37 and wti $35. Traders are just waiting for confirmation. The market is in this weird cycle of plunge oil and scare OPEC, make OPEC talk seriously about oversupply, oil rises, OPEC does nothing, plunge oil.

Its been in a weird cycle for about 8 years now.

[ou48A]

Next week is going to be a blood bath. The meeting is going to disappoint and Brent/WTI will plunge Brent probably $37 and wti $35. Traders are just waiting for confirmation. The market is in this weird cycle of plunge oil and scare OPEC, make OPEC talk seriously about oversupply, oil rises, OPEC does nothing, plunge oil.

I would agree what you describe is a likely scenario.
However I believe this could present an opportunity to buy energy stocks…
As I’m sure you know many analysts are projecting improving crude prices by late in the year and beyond.

I have DVN on my radar ….. Thoughts from anyone?

[gopokes88]

I would agree what you describe is a likely scenario.
However I believe this could present an opportunity to buy energy stocks…
As I’m sure you know many analysts are projecting improving crude prices by late in the year and beyond.

I have DVN on my radar ….. Thoughts from anyone?

USO. I load up at 9.25 each time.

Any of the majors I'll buy too.

[OkiePoke]

USO. I load up at 9.25 each time.

Any of the majors I'll buy too.

I am buying majors with good dividend yields.

[gopokes88]

No deal in Doha. None at all.

This could be a tough week for prices.

[zorobabel]

Oil's Grand Bargain Falls Victim to Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation - Bloomberg

In the end, the outcome of Sunday’s summit of 16 oil ministers at Qatar’s Sheraton hotel turned on one country that wasn’t there.

Iran’s decision, on the eve of the meeting, not to attend signaled things wouldn’t go well. When ministers assembled the next day, Saudi Arabia stunned some of them by insisting every OPEC member, including Iran, must subscribe to the deal to freeze oil production. Scheduled to end with an early afternoon press conference, proceedings dragged into the evening.

When the meeting finally broke up without a deal just after 9 p.m. local time -- a failure that’s likely to see oil prices tumble -- it fell to the host minister, Qatar’s Mohammed Al Sada, to announce the result at a press conference for the dozens of reporters who’d flown in to cover the talks.

...