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Thread: Oil prices

  1. #76

    Default Re: Oil prices

    ^
    The problem with this is that oil is not "way low." IMO this country has become completely detached on what constitutes cheap oil. At $67/bbl (what it is currently trading at as of 1 PM today), oil prices are higher than they were when Devon broke ground on its tower in 2009, or when the Thunder first started playing in 2008 (of course they were much higher when the relocation was finalized, but the support was still there afterwords). At the current price, a handful of marginal fields are not profitable, but the vast majority of conventional fields and even some unconventional ones are. Also, this does not factor in the slowly increasing price of natural gas, currently about $4.35/mcf

    The biggest risk in the short term for OKC is increased M&A activity, much like the rather random Hallibuton/Baker Hughes deal. Not saying that local companies are going to get bought out, but the risk is substantially higher now. In the long term, however, I am not worried. This is not 1979, where the oil "shortage" was fueled largely by spiteful OPEC members creating an artificial market. The world has entered into a new phase of E&P exploration and demand elasticity. Hell, AEP got $500 million last week for new aquisitions. My own employer recently completed a succesful capital program as well. If investors were worried about the long term position of energy would these things be happening? Nope. That's the key here...LONG TERM.

    As far as all of this effecting OKC, I heard these same arguments about NYC when the stock market crashed in 2008 or about DC in 2012 when steep budget cuts were enacted. True, both events had a slowing effect on their local economies. And yet, both cities are awash in construction cranes. Obviously a bit of a reach to compare OKC with NYC or DC, but the point applies. Investment will occur where businesses think they can make the most amount of $$ over the LONG TERM.

    And something to consider. The local economy was probably stronger relative to the rest of the country in 2010-12 than it is today, now that most of the country has recovered somewhat. So logic would state we would have experienced a flood of capital during that time; except that we really didn't. Only in the past 18-24 months has OKC really seen a lot of national players enter this market.

    My point being, there are a lot of moving parts to OKC. It's important to note that the two largest economic "gets" this past year (expansion at Tinker and Boeing) had nothing to do with oil and gas. A swoon in prices of commodities which have always moved up and down have far less of an effect on massive years-long capital outlays than what is suggested here. So while yes some vigilance is always good, it is not something i would lose sleep over.

  2. #77

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I agree with what you're saying. But we're in that $70/bbl range right now. We don't know where the bottom is yet, and we don't know how long we'll be bottomed out nor how quickly we'll get back to the $85/bbl range. Again, we don't need to worry about the viability of OKC in all of this. We don't even need to over-compensate for a perceived problem that isn't there. Again, this is a question of growth.

    With this news in mind, hopefully city leaders are reminded that, economically speaking, OKC needs to really find a way to lure a major player or two in at least one other field that is unrelated to E&P and Publicly funded institutions. Tech and/or retail is probably wishful thinking, major medical/pharma or communications possible but difficult. OKC has some players in finance, but they're very localized/regionalized.

  3. #78

    Default Re: Oil prices

    ^
    I agree that the actual price is not the issue rather than the uncertainty of it all. My last point emphasized long term pricing; in the short term, however, there are few economic trends that would point to any sort of floor being established on oil prices. So I fully expect them to slide a bit more before it's all said and done.

  4. #79

    Default Re: Oil prices

    This article helps show why affordable crude oil is so important to a healthy global economy.
    Since reasonable crude oil substitutes are few and mostly not practical, at least for now, this is also a reminder of why we need policy’s that help keep supplies abundant enough to prevent the economic devastation caused by high crude prices.

    Drill Baby Drill did work for crude oil prices just like it did for natural gas prices...
    It will continue to work for many many decades to come, if allowed.

    Keep in mind that our state is considered an exporter.
    As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy - The Washington Post

    “As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy”

  5. #80

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by ou48A View Post
    This article helps show why affordable crude oil is so important to a healthy global economy.
    Since reasonable crude oil substitutes are few and mostly not practical, at least for now, this is also a reminder of why we need policy’s that help keep supplies abundant enough to prevent the economic devastation caused by high crude prices.

    Drill Baby Drill did work for crude oil prices just like it did for natural gas prices...
    It will continue to work for many many decades to come, if allowed.

    Keep in mind that our state is considered an exporter.
    As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy - The Washington Post

    “As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy”
    Especially given the fact it is plunging based on the supply side of the equation not the demand. If demand plunged that would be a big problem.

  6. #81

    Default Re: Oil prices

    An Oncue Express station in Oklahoma City was selling the motor fuel for $1.99 a gallon today, becoming the first one to drop below $2 in the U.S. since July 30, 2010
    First U.S. Gas Station Drops Below $2 a Gallon - Bloomberg

  7. #82

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by blangtang View Post
    An Oncue Express station in Oklahoma City was selling the motor fuel for $1.99 a gallon today, becoming the first one to drop below $2 in the U.S. since July 30, 2010
    First U.S. Gas Station Drops Below $2 a Gallon - Bloomberg
    Wish I had heard earlier, I payed closer to 2.50, but the under 2 might be with ethanol since it was a quarter cheaper than the non-ethanol gas I got.

  8. Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    Wish I had heard earlier, I payed closer to 2.50, but the under 2 might be with ethanol since it was a quarter cheaper than the non-ethanol gas I got.
    It was with ethanol. The 7-11 across the street had it for 2.01. I had to drive by that station a couple times yesterday. pita! I went on down the street and paid 20 cents more without the hassle. I have noticed a lot more hummers and larger trucks than normal on the roads since the price drop. It seems like it is a good price for those driving gas guzzlers.

  9. #84

    Default Re: Oil prices

    It's cheaper for me to buy 100% 91 octane than Ethanol 87.

    I get 6 MPG better with 91 octane, which saves me the cost difference plus some extra by fueling with 91 100%.

    26.2MPG x 15.9 gallon = 416.58 Mi range

    20.6MPG x 15.9 gallon = 327.54 Mi Range

    I get an extra 89.04 miles per fillup, divided by 26.2 MPG is equivalent to buying an extra 3.39 gallons of ethanol 87 gas.

  10. #85

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    It's cheaper for me to buy 100% 91 octane than Ethanol 87.

    I get 6 MPG better with 91 octane, which saves me the cost difference plus some extra by fueling with 91 100%.

    26.2MPG x 15.9 gallon = 416.58 Mi range

    20.6MPG x 15.9 gallon = 327.54 Mi Range

    I get an extra 89.04 miles per fillup, divided by 26.2 MPG is equivalent to buying an extra 3.39 gallons of ethanol 87 gas.
    My brother told me basically the same thing and I thought he was nuts but I gave it try and I'll be darned he was right. I achieved similar results as what you posted. Who'da thunk.
    Don't hassle me, I'm local.

  11. Default Re: Oil prices

    Next time I fill-up I am going to try it. I only have a 12 gallon tank so even at 30 mpg it seems I am always stopping for gas.

  12. #87

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I saw this post about better mpg with higher octane so I googled about it and some people seemed to think it was a myth. Has anyone done calculation on this?

  13. #88

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I absolutely can tell a difference. Haven't done an actual calculation, but on the highway I easily get 5-10 mpg better.

  14. #89

    Default Re: Oil prices

    but it's gotta be 100% 91 octane right, not a E-10 blended 91 octane to see the difference?

  15. #90

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by pahdz View Post
    but it's gotta be 100% 91 octane right, not a E-10 blended 91 octane to see the difference?
    Right, I use 100% - no ethanol. I didn't believe it until I made the switch, but when I've had to put in blended on different occasions it's amazing how much of a dropoff I see.

  16. #91

    Default Re: Oil prices

    sweet, we just got a new (to us) car that recommends 91 so i'll take a look at this

  17. #92

    Default Re: Oil prices

    I think the difference you are noticing is because of the 100% gas, not the octane difference. Higher octance actually has less energy per gallon. Octane is there to reduce detonation in your engine. High performance cars run it because they tune for it to change the timing of the engine, creating more horsepower.

    Edit: The best thing to use is whatever your car manufacturer calls for to use.

  18. #93

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by OkiePoke View Post
    I think the difference you are noticing is because of the 100% gas, not the octane difference. Higher octance actually has less energy per gallon. Octane is there to reduce detonation in your engine. High performance cars run it because they tune for it to change the timing of the engine, creating more horsepower.

    Edit: The best thing to use is whatever your car manufacturer calls for to use.
    Right. I use 91 because that's what my car calls for. I didn't mean to suggest putting a higher octane in your car than what it recommends... the big difference comes with the 100% vs. ethanol.

  19. Default Re: Oil prices

    speaking of octane, is there any where in the city that has 93 or 95? my car calls for 91-95 and I can only find 91. Curious to see if 95 would make any difference

  20. #95

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by andrewmperry View Post
    I saw this post about better mpg with higher octane so I googled about it and some people seemed to think it was a myth. Has anyone done calculation on this?
    My car has an avg MPG computer. The previous owner used cheapest ethanol, and the meter read 20.6 when I purchased it. I immediately switched to 100% 91 and over 3 or 4 fill ups my avg surged to 26.2

  21. #96

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by OkiePoke View Post
    I think the difference you are noticing is because of the 100% gas, not the octane difference. Higher octance actually has less energy per gallon. Octane is there to reduce detonation in your engine. High performance cars run it because they tune for it to change the timing of the engine, creating more horsepower.

    Edit: The best thing to use is whatever your car manufacturer calls for to use.
    Kind of. Higher octane is used to prevent pre-ignition. High compression ratio engines need higher octane so you can get a proper concentration of fuel inside the cyclinder before it fires. Low octane fuel will ignite before the spark plug fires (the cylinder head is hot enough to spontaneously combust the fuel before the spark plug fires) creating knocking. High octane will not do that. You get more power out of high octane fuel because you are getting the proper mixture of gas in the cylinder before ignition. (Around 20-25 degrees before top dead center on the compression stroke.)

  22. #97

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by worthy cook View Post
    speaking of octane, is there any where in the city that has 93 or 95? my car calls for 91-95 and I can only find 91. Curious to see if 95 would make any difference
    There's a place in Nichols Hills that sells 105

  23. #98

    Default Re: Oil prices

    We said the same thing with different words.

  24. #99

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by worthy cook View Post
    speaking of octane, is there any where in the city that has 93 or 95? my car calls for 91-95 and I can only find 91. Curious to see if 95 would make any difference
    FWIW, you rarely see anything more than 91 octane in areas with altitude that are at least 1000 ft in elevation (OKC is around 1200ish ft.) Fuel at 93 or higher starts to prematurely evaporate at that level due to the lower air pressure. We get 93 in Dallas, but of course its all E-10.

    This was some time ago, but I believe Red Rock Distributors off 50th and Santa Fe sells 93 octane w/ no ethanol as well as a variety of special racing fuels. It aint cheap though, and I don't remember any increase in performance. Although I have an eight cylinder and no special tune, you may get a different result.

  25. #100

    Default Re: Oil prices

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    It's cheaper for me to buy 100% 91 octane than Ethanol 87.

    I get 6 MPG better with 91 octane, which saves me the cost difference plus some extra by fueling with 91 100%.

    26.2MPG x 15.9 gallon = 416.58 Mi range

    20.6MPG x 15.9 gallon = 327.54 Mi Range

    I get an extra 89.04 miles per fillup, divided by 26.2 MPG is equivalent to buying an
    extra 3.39 gallons of ethanol 87 gas.
    I get better mileage in my 1998 Suburban, too. Also the corn makes the engine
    run hotter than it should.

    My brother in law was a go cart racer and when they would run alcohol they'd have
    to double the tank size in order to get the same distance. It boosted the power.

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