Oil prices

[PhiAlpha]

You obviously read too much into my statement...

I do understand this:

If you going to throw stones;

Male menopause reality check? Don't bleed your brain to death...

You may have the 'last word' my dear... ...you need not say may I!

Cute...

And I understand this: When you make a stupid blanket statement that could be construed as derogatory by an industry of people, some of whom are struggling now, don't be surprised if someone takes offense to it.

No, I did not get laid off, but have friends and family that are now out of work or will be soon. So when I see a stupid statement, such as yours, I find it difficult not to call it out.

[Dubya61]

FWIW, December retail sales were released this morning and actually showed a small drop MTM, which defines conventional wisdom that people are out blowing money on crap that they would have otherwise spent on gas.

On a related note, I was watching CNBC (which I rarely do) and someone made a good point. It is a bit of a myth that dropping gas prices provide a stimulus to the economy. This may have been true back in the 90's and early 2000's when the US was importing over 60% of its net oil consumption. Those dollars were leaving the country and going to Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc.; nowadays that import figure has completely inversed. In 2013 we were importing only 35% of net oil consumption, probably lower in 2014 and 2015. So the dollars spent on oil were mostly staying in the US, and largely being reinvested back in US based business.

Now that oil has dropped, that money has been freed up but its not "new" money that would otherwise be leaving the country. Its more of a redistribution. And that assumes that people would spend their savings 1:1 back into the economy. Some may save it; others may pay down debt. All good things personally but not good for a consumption based economy. And even with that, you'd have to factor consumers would be purchasing cheap foreign made goods from Wal Mart and other big box places, so that money is now leaving the US again.

Just some things to consider.

These concepts seem to have been proven several times over when the Feds gave us a stimulus check that failed to stimulate.

[ylouder]

Sky is fallingggggg

Gas...is..1.78 for 100 percent gas.

Everybody panic!

[Bellaboo]

Sky is fallingggggg

Gas...is..1.78 for 100 percent gas.

Everybody panic!

I saw 100% gas for 1.75.
You're getting screwed.

[mkjeeves]

Actually, you DO put it in oil tankers if you think the price is going to drop, at least near term. They are hoping the price goes up in the future so they can profit from the storage, but what happens in a year if the price doesn't go up? Then they have to dump even more oil on the market at a time when prices are already low. Let me tell you now, the people doing this are going to take a bath in that oil. To be honest, that idea is so risky to the domestic oil market that is should actually be banned.

The way the oil companies engaging in this were said to be profiting was for them to lock in the profits now with futures contracts higher than the price of buying the oil now and storing it for a year, $8 was quoted as the spread in the example. The people taking the bath if the price continues to go down will be the people or companies on the other end of those contracts, not the companies with the oil in storage. However, if they did stick it in storage without covering their long position for a futures contract, then yeah, they could be taking the bath, or profiting even more if the price keeps going up. Oil is in the high forties today and low fifties for a year from now on those contracts being traded. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...eet-crude.html

My biggest issue with it is the stupidity of sticking that much oil in tankers and floating it at sea for a long duration for the sole purpose of making a buck. Leave that nasty **** in the ground until we need it.

[mkjeeves]

I had business yesterday out on the road south of El Reno where several companies have equipment yards (including Schlumberger) and did notice how much equipment was idle in the yards compared to the last time I was out there a couple of months ago.

Schlumberger Cuts 9000 jobs. (7.1 % of their workforce.)

Schlumberger Cuts 9,000 Jobs as Oil Slump Brings Uncertainty - Businessweek

[bchris02]

Oil is back up above $48 today. Hopefully it has bottomed at this point.

[gopokes88]

Oil is back up above $48 today. Hopefully it has bottomed at this point.

Those groups didn't buy 25 million barrels to float them because they think oil is going lower. A billion dollar bet that gains or loses $25 mil per $1 swing in prices.

Oil traders to store millions of barrels at sea as prices slump

That's putting money where their mouth is.

[C_M_25]

I'm lucky enough to work for a company that has been fiscally responsible over the past several years, so they aren't planning layoffs. It just blows my mind that schlumberger is laying off that many people. Obviously, you can't pay these people to sit around and do nothing, but I hope they are giving them really good packages as that company has been raking in the cash.

I also heard that apache, an e & p company is laying off 5% of it's 5000 employees. I just don't understand it. How can these companies already be going through layoffs?? Oil has only been down for a few months! Are these companies irresponsible with their money? Maybe this Will be a wake up call going forward on how to do business.

Oh, one more thing. If these companies (e & p) are in positions to lay people off, why don't you see the executives taking pay cuts and bonus reductions? Of course not...

[venture]

I'm lucky enough to work for a company that has been fiscally responsible over the past several years, so they aren't planning layoffs. It just blows my mind that schlumberger is laying off that many people. Obviously, you can't pay these people to sit around and do nothing, but I hope they are giving them really good packages as that company has been raking in the cash.

I also heard that apache, an e & p company is laying off 5% of it's 5000 employees. I just don't understand it. How can these companies already be going through layoffs?? Oil has only been down for a few months! Are these companies irresponsible with their money? Maybe this Will be a wake up call going forward on how to do business.

Oh, one more thing. If these companies (e & p) are in positions to lay people off, why don't you see the executives taking pay cuts and bonus reductions? Of course not...

Sounds like some of the same practices the Dot Coms did. Spend a lot, grow fast, but have nothing in there for a slow down or reality to catch up. So this might be a good thing to weed out the weak companies.

[josh]

A gas station near my job here in San Antonio, as of today, has gas at $1.51. That same station had gas at $1.64 two days ago. That's a 13 cent drop in two days.

[Just the facts]

I'm lucky enough to work for a company that has been fiscally responsible over the past several years, so they aren't planning layoffs. It just blows my mind that schlumberger is laying off that many people. Obviously, you can't pay these people to sit around and do nothing, but I hope they are giving them really good packages as that company has been raking in the cash.

I hope you are right but if your company is publicly traded you might be in for a sad surprise. Wall Street fund managers aren't going to allow your executive management to pay employees for doing nothing when that money could be going to them. I have said it before but it bears repeating - Tom Callahan is dead (and he has been replaced by vampires).

[zookeeper]

It's been a while since I have posted at OKCTalk. Months ago, I said I was gone. I got fed up with the herd from the energy industry in this city dominating this board and becoming rude whenever I, or anyone else, pointed out facts concerning possibilities on the horizon that things could get bad in Oklahoma City. I said it at a time when that didn't seem possible. I asked if the city leadership had ever sat down and devised a plan if the city were to be wrecked by an energy crash. What would we do? I pointed to several things that could cause this and they were being discussed in the international press, and somewhat in the financial press in the states, but very little locally. Well....here I am, back again to ask those who taunted me off the board if sometimes it might be wise to listen to opposing viewpoints? God knows that I do - I have to! If you frequent this very conservative, pro-Big Energy board, you mostly read, learn, and sometimes agree, sometimes disagree, but usually remain quiet. Sometimes it is just not worth it to dare voice a view that could possibly contradict the view from the offices of the oil and gas barons of our city. But when there are times that one feels they must stand up against, basically the entire board (save a dozen or so), I seemed to always take a pounding to dare sound any alarms.

I don't wish bad things on Oklahoma City. That's why I asked my question if serious planning had ever occured for the possibilities for a bust, a bubble pop, or an outright crash. I was serious. I got laughed at and taunted (from thread to thread - related or not) and said, "forget it." Today, I am writing to ask that people here consider the possibility that we aren't entering a period of crisis for a few weeks, or months, but possibly years. There are many factors at play during this "cycle" in the industry that has never been in alignment before. We can't look at the past and predict the future.

Things in Russia are bad. Very bad. There are many people who feel like this is more than a financial, oil and gas issue, and that it is actually fundamentally a geopolitical maneuver to stop the advances Russia has made on so many fronts (while demonizing Vladimir Putin). Just like we always have demonized those we prepare to battle. But I am here today to tell you that, in my opinion, right now the interests of certain U.S. cities (OKC, Houston, etc.) are at odds with a political battle to de-stabilize Russia and its trading partners in an effort for world hegemony. In other words, we have more in common economically in oil and gas with Moscow than Washington. I'll leave it at that for now.

Don't close your minds to anything that seems "anti-energy" because sometimes we are all in something together. That time may be sooner rather than later.

[PhiAlpha]

It's been a while since I have posted at OKCTalk. Months ago, I said I was gone. I got fed up with the herd from the energy industry in this city dominating this board and becoming rude whenever I, or anyone else, pointed out facts concerning possibilities on the horizon that things could get bad in Oklahoma City. I said it at a time when that didn't seem possible. I asked if the city leadership had ever sat down and devised a plan if the city were to be wrecked by an energy crash. What would we do? I pointed to several things that could cause this and they were being discussed in the international press, and somewhat in the financial press in the states, but very little locally. Well....here I am, back again to ask those who taunted me off the board if sometimes it might be wise to listen to opposing viewpoints? God knows that I do - I have to! If you frequent this very conservative, pro-Big Energy board, you mostly read, learn, and sometimes agree, sometimes disagree, but usually remain quiet. Sometimes it is just not worth it to dare voice a view that could possibly contradict the view from the offices of the oil and gas barons of our city. But when there are times that one feels they must stand up against, basically the entire board (save a dozen or so), I seemed to always take a pounding to dare sound any alarms.

I don't wish bad things on Oklahoma City. That's why I asked my question if serious planning had ever occured for the possibilities for a bust, a bubble pop, or an outright crash. I was serious. I got laughed at and taunted (from thread to thread - related or not) and said, "forget it." Today, I am writing to ask that people here consider the possibility that we aren't entering a period of crisis for a few weeks, or months, but possibly years. There are many factors at play during this "cycle" in the industry that has never been in alignment before. We can't look at the past and predict the future.

Things in Russia are bad. Very bad. There are many people who feel like this is more than a financial, oil and gas issue, and that it is actually fundamentally a geopolitical maneuver to stop the advances Russia has made on so many fronts (while demonizing Vladimir Putin). Just like we always have demonized those we prepare to battle. But I am here today to tell you that, in my opinion, right now the interests of certain U.S. cities (OKC, Houston, etc.) are at odds with a political battle to de-stabilize Russia and its trading partners in an effort for world hegemony. In other words, we have more in common economically in oil and gas with Moscow than Washington. I'll leave it at that for now.

Don't close your minds to anything that seems "anti-energy" because sometimes we are all in something together. That time may be sooner rather than later.

So what exactly do you suggest the city have done differently? They have attempted to diversify. Should they have just said no when continental and other energy companies wanted to move here so that we wouldn't become too leveraged in one industry? Should they have tried to force every energy company to stop growing? Everyone likes to mention that the city should diversify more... Do you think they're not trying? Do you think the city has been rejecting bids from hundreds of none energy companies that have been dying to move here? What is your answer to OKC's apparent inability to manage its economy?

And no one taunted you off this board. You couldn't take the fact that the majority disagreed with you and bowed out completely. Few if anyone was disrespectful, they just disagreed with your arguments.

[ljbab728]

A gas station near my job here in San Antonio, as of today, has gas at $1.51. That same station had gas at $1.64 two days ago. That's a 13 cent drop in two days.

I drove by several 7-11 stores today and they had all raised the price from $1.59 yesterday to $1.69 today. Unless I'm figuring wrong, that's an increase of 10 cents in one day.

[PhiAlpha]

To follow up on that, here is the thread where 5 people disagreed with you: http://www.okctalk.com/businesses-em...tml#post832230

The main reason everyone, or really only Pwitty, argued with you was because you posted 10 articles about why the shale boom was going to fail, 9 of which were written on the premise that it would fail for environmental reasons, because every play is unprofitable below $80 per bbl, or because shale well decline curves were too steep and it took too much money and too many additional wells to replace the production to be profitable long term. Pwitty's arguments against those assertions were spot on and I'm not really sure why you took that and everyone agreeing with him as some massive attack against you that was bad enough to make you tuck your tail and run away from okctalk. No one was disrespectful, they just didn't agree with you and they were right...the shale boom wasn't in danger becuase it is some sort of "ponzi scheme". It was/is in danger becuase of the basic economics of supply and demand. On the contrary to all those articles that claim that the shale boom wouldn't produce enough to be viable long term...it produced so much oil and gas that it has driven prices down to a level that is close to rendering many plays uneconomic until the price rebounds. Production has not been disappointing as those articles claim, it has been TOO good. Demand is slightly down and supply is way up so the price cratered.

Now I definitely must give credit where it is due because you posted this article at the bottom of your list and it was almost spot on. If you had focused on this aspect of it in your argument, you would've been almost right on the money. It does however allude to the fact that long term, the price of oil will be high which bodes well for OK's economy in the long run.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...ed-for-a-bust/

[Just the facts]

So what exactly do you suggest the city have done differently? They have attempted to diversify. Should they have just said no when continental and other energy companies wanted to move here so that we wouldn't become too leveraged in one industry? Should they have tried to force every energy company to stop growing? Everyone likes to mention that the city should diversify more... Do you think they're not trying? Do you think the city has been rejecting bids from hundreds of none energy companies that have been dying to move here? What is your answer to OKC's apparent inability to manage its economy?

No, I actually don't think they were trying. I think the Chamber and City officials became so enamored with oil companies they totally neglected other industries.

[PhiAlpha]

No, I actually don't think they were trying. I think the Chamber and City officials became so enamored with oil companies they totally neglected other industries.

Seeing as how we've only had 2 oil companies move here in 5 years...That is ridiculous. No way they would neglect other industries.

[josh]

I drove by several 7-11 stores today and they had all raised the price from $1.59 yesterday to $1.69 today. Unless I'm figuring wrong, that's an increase of 10 cents in one day.

That same gas station by my job is now $1.48. That's down 3 cents in one day.

Edit:

I earlier had posted it went up to $1.89. I used the Gasbuddy app on my phone as i didn't work today. Long story short, the app is set to premium prices because that's what my car uses and I forgot that and assumed the regular gas price had risen.

Anyway. My mistake.

[bradh]

No, I actually don't think they were trying. I think the Chamber and City officials became so enamored with oil companies they totally neglected other industries.

This is a crock of you know what. The Chamber focuses a lot of time, money and effort on all industries. In fact, they probably spend more non-O&G industries (retail and bioscience, to name a few).

[PhiAlpha]

This is a crock of you know what. The Chamber focuses a lot of time, money and effort on all industries. In fact, they probably spend more non-O&G industries (retail and bioscience, to name a few).

Seem to have spent a decent amount of time on aerospace as well. Boeing's growing presence here shouldn't be taken lightly.

[Just the facts]

Not sure how much of an effort OKC City and the OKC Chamber spent recruiting a company to Midwest City.

On edit, or is Boeing in OKC city limits?

[Snowman]

Not sure how much of an effort OKC City and the OKC Chamber spent recruiting a company to Midwest City.

On edit, or is Boeing in OKC city limits?

It is in OKC city limits, near Air Depo & SE 59th. Some operations are probably on the base as well.

[C_M_25]

It's been a while since I have posted at OKCTalk. Months ago, I said I was gone. I got fed up with the herd from the energy industry in this city dominating this board and becoming rude whenever I, or anyone else, pointed out facts concerning possibilities on the horizon that things could get bad in Oklahoma City. I said it at a time when that didn't seem possible. I asked if the city leadership had ever sat down and devised a plan if the city were to be wrecked by an energy crash. What would we do? I pointed to several things that could cause this and they were being discussed in the international press, and somewhat in the financial press in the states, but very little locally. Well....here I am, back again to ask those who taunted me off the board if sometimes it might be wise to listen to opposing viewpoints? God knows that I do - I have to! If you frequent this very conservative, pro-Big Energy board, you mostly read, learn, and sometimes agree, sometimes disagree, but usually remain quiet. Sometimes it is just not worth it to dare voice a view that could possibly contradict the view from the offices of the oil and gas barons of our city. But when there are times that one feels they must stand up against, basically the entire board (save a dozen or so), I seemed to always take a pounding to dare sound any alarms.

I don't wish bad things on Oklahoma City. That's why I asked my question if serious planning had ever occured for the possibilities for a bust, a bubble pop, or an outright crash. I was serious. I got laughed at and taunted (from thread to thread - related or not) and said, "forget it." Today, I am writing to ask that people here consider the possibility that we aren't entering a period of crisis for a few weeks, or months, but possibly years. There are many factors at play during this "cycle" in the industry that has never been in alignment before. We can't look at the past and predict the future.

Things in Russia are bad. Very bad. There are many people who feel like this is more than a financial, oil and gas issue, and that it is actually fundamentally a geopolitical maneuver to stop the advances Russia has made on so many fronts (while demonizing Vladimir Putin). Just like we always have demonized those we prepare to battle. But I am here today to tell you that, in my opinion, right now the interests of certain U.S. cities (OKC, Houston, etc.) are at odds with a political battle to de-stabilize Russia and its trading partners in an effort for world hegemony. In other words, we have more in common economically in oil and gas with Moscow than Washington. I'll leave it at that for now.

Don't close your minds to anything that seems "anti-energy" because sometimes we are all in something together. That time may be sooner rather than later.

A couple of things here. First, what did you expect would happen with your other posts? There are a lot of people here who make a living in the energy industry, and have no control over oil prices. Posts like your previous only create worry, anxiousness, and fear in the people in this industry, so they will react by defending their positions and justify their existence. It is no different if I started spouting hate against green energy. I wouldn't be surprised to hear differing opinions and/or angry responses and attacks.

Secondly, oil is such a difficult commodity to predict a future for. There have been so many contradictory articles/studies telling us how oil will be at $200/barrel or $10/barrel; how we have hit peak oil; or how oil is obsolete. The fact of the matter is that there are so many unpredictable variables that greatly affect price of oil such as war, threat of war, refinery shutdowns, and new technological advancements. So it isn't surprising to see people dismiss your posts about the fall of oil back then as just background noise.

Lastly, are you really that small of a man that you won't hesitate to spew your opinion yet you runaway like a little girl when somebody argues your opinion? Not only do you run away, but you come back and brag about how you were right all along. Well, any credentials you would get for being "right" are null-and-void because you are a little coward who runs away rather than debating your opinion with your opposition.

[bradh]

Not sure how much of an effort OKC City and the OKC Chamber spent recruiting a company to Midwest City.

On edit, or is Boeing in OKC city limits?

Plenty I assure you

Check out what the Chamber does yearly at the global bioscience conference, it's impressive.