Oil prices

[ylouder]

Funny. I should move because I pointed out actual problems we are having in the state.

Gotcha.

[jn1780]

In real life I'm the farthest thing from an environmentalist, I'm just pissed off because I've repaired drywall damage at our previous home and now our new construction. I've had to buy earthquake insurance, I've had to install a reverse osmosis system on our well water (drinking only) incase our water gets contaminated, ive had to deal with crappy false inflation of home values (our builder now has our same model listed for 30k more than we paid about 1.5 years ago), and now the coming massive decline in property value.

I think with this great economic foresight, it would be wise to put your home on the market this spring before a crash happens and then possibly move to a place far away from the drilling.

[adaniel]

Do you actually read the article? On a national level, consumer spending is basically the same as it was last year. Although this probably shows that some states are up and some states are down.

FWIW, December retail sales were released this morning and actually showed a small drop MTM, which defines conventional wisdom that people are out blowing money on crap that they would have otherwise spent on gas.

On a related note, I was watching CNBC (which I rarely do) and someone made a good point. It is a bit of a myth that dropping gas prices provide a stimulus to the economy. This may have been true back in the 90's and early 2000's when the US was importing over 60% of its net oil consumption. Those dollars were leaving the country and going to Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc.; nowadays that import figure has completely inversed. In 2013 we were importing only 35% of net oil consumption, probably lower in 2014 and 2015. So the dollars spent on oil were mostly staying in the US, and largely being reinvested back in US based business.

Now that oil has dropped, that money has been freed up but its not "new" money that would otherwise be leaving the country. Its more of a redistribution. And that assumes that people would spend their savings 1:1 back into the economy. Some may save it; others may pay down debt. All good things personally but not good for a consumption based economy. And even with that, you'd have to factor consumers would be purchasing cheap foreign made goods from Wal Mart and other big box places, so that money is now leaving the US again.

Just some things to consider.

[ylouder]

Lots of homes have been listed within the past few weeks. If it continues on won't be long before we start seeing foreclosures locally.

Most people don't get ahead on their mortgage like they used too.

[s00nr1]

Bingo...customer spending is way up regardless of some of the doom and gloom some locals are spreading over the fall of oil prices.

You might try reading the article next time before injecting your own personal biases.

We are told the average family will save $40-60/month due to lower energy prices, yet spending only actually increased $1. These are facts.

$1 actual realized increase in spending << $40-60 in forecast savings.

[PhiAlpha]

Lots of homes have been listed within the past few weeks. If it continues on won't be long before we start seeing foreclosures locally.

Most people don't get ahead on their mortgage like they used too.

If only anyone that mattered agreed with you, you might have a point. Fortunately few, if anyone, forcasting OKC's economic outlook feels that way.

[PhiAlpha]

You might try reading the article next time before injecting your own personal biases.

We are told the average family will save $40-60/month due to lower energy prices, yet spending only actually increased $1. These are facts.

$1 actual realized increase in spending << $40-60 in forecast savings.

Though my comment actually agrees with yours...I commented prematurely as well and didn't initially understand what you were saying...my bad.

[jn1780]

Lots of homes have been listed within the past few weeks. If it continues on won't be long before we start seeing foreclosures locally.

Most people don't get ahead on their mortgage like they used too.

I'm not going to say we won't see some housing declines in the future, but more listings showing up a few months before spring selling season is pretty normal.

[ylouder]

If only anyone that mattered agreed with you, you might have a point. Fortunately few, if anyone, forcasting OKC's economic outlook feels that way.

What's with the insults, I'm just reporting what I've seen.

[s00nr1]

What's with the insults, I'm just reporting what I've seen.

Inventories in the OKC metro are still at well below average levels. Many listing agents are having a hard time because there aren't nearly enough sellers in the market to compensate for the massive influx of buyers. We are a long way from a housing crisis in OKC.

[PhiAlpha]

What's with the insults, I'm just reporting what I've seen.

If it continues on won't be long before we start seeing foreclosures locally.

So you've seen the future?

People are starting to list their homes leading up to peak selling season... it always happens this way.

[Jersey Boss]

Apparently when put into perspective, the price of oil is not really "low".

Oil Prices Actually Aren't That Low, Historically Speaking

Oil is cheap, but it could still be cheaper.

Everybody's talking about how oil prices have crashed from more than $100 a barrel to less than $50 a barrel in just a few months. This has been great for American drivers, pushing gasoline prices down to less than $2 a gallon around the country.

But some perspective is in order: $50 a barrel for oil is still kind of high, compared to what it has cost in the past, especially when you adjust for inflation. As The Washington Post's Steven Mufson pointed out, oil still costs a lot more than its average price from 1986 to 2004. During that stretch, imported oil cost $33 per barrel, on average, according to data from the federal Energy Information Administration.

[gopokes88]

So you've seen the future?

People are starting to list their homes leading up to peak selling season... it always happens this way.

I think we should just ignore him. Bitching and panicking is more fun then pragmatic emotionless analysis-it's the way people are.

Back to oil news. It surged 5% today even with a build of 5.4 million barrels versus 417,000 expected. Might tank in the coming days.

What is interesting is this,

"Outside the United States, some of the world's biggest oil traders have booked supertankers to store at least 25 million barrels at sea."

You don't buy that much oil if you think the price is going to continue to drop. Cheers to whoever flips that at $60.00 a barrel to make a cool $375 million.

Brent slumps on US stock build and slow global growth

Looks like the Fed is starting to worry a little bit.

Falling oil prices hitting economic growth; oil firms report layoffs, freezes: Fed Beige Book

[Just the facts]

You might try reading the article next time before injecting your own personal biases.

We are told the average family will save $40-60/month due to lower energy prices, yet spending only actually increased $1. These are facts.

$1 actual realized increase in spending << $40-60 in forecast savings.

Not to be the math police, but if someone stopped spending $40-$60 and their total spending increased $1, doesn't that mean the $40-$60 were being spent on other things beside gasoline? Otherwise, total spending would have dropped $39-$59.

[liirogue]

Apparently when put into perspective, the price of oil is not really "low".

You'll note that the graph shows the big drop that occurred in 1986 (when the price dropped to roughly $30 in 2014 dollars) is when the big oil bust occurred and crushed Oklahoma's economy for the next two decades. We are theoretically only $15 away from that now.

[Just the facts]

"Outside the United States, some of the world's biggest oil traders have booked supertankers to store at least 25 million barrels at sea."

You don't buy that much oil if you think the price is going to continue to drop. Cheers to whoever flips that at $60.00 a barrel to make a cool $375 million.

Actually, you DO put it in oil tankers if you think the price is going to drop, at least near term. They are hoping the price goes up in the future so they can profit from the storage, but what happens in a year if the price doesn't go up? Then they have to dump even more oil on the market at a time when prices are already low. Let me tell you now, the people doing this are going to take a bath in that oil. To be honest, that idea is so risky to the domestic oil market that is should actually be banned.

[Jersey Boss]

You'll note that the graph shows the big drop that occurred in 1986 (when the price dropped to roughly $30 in 2014 dollars) is when the big oil bust occurred and crushed Oklahoma's economy for the next two decades. We are theoretically only $15 away from that now.

I summarily dismiss the claim that Oklahoma had a crushed economy for twenty years. Can you lead me to some data that would support this? Was Oklahoma crushed in 1976 as well?

[bchris02]

I summarily dismiss the claim that Oklahoma had a crushed economy for twenty years. Can you lead me to some data that would support this? Was Oklahoma crushed in 1976 as well?

I agree with this.

OKC had a string of bad luck that never allowed it to fully recover through that twenty year period but it can't all be blamed on the oil price collapse. You also had Penn Square Bank, the Urban Renewal plan which had demolished most of downtown but new proposals had been delayed/cancelled leaving the grass lots and surface parking still being filled in today. Then in the '90s you had the 1995 Murrah bombing and the 1999 tornado, both being huge economic and psychological blows to this area. By the early 2000s however the area was really beginning to take off, even with $20 oil. The development at the time may not have been at the standard OKC is seeing now but it was happening nonetheless.

[jn1780]

I agree with this.

OKC had a string of bad luck that never allowed it to fully recover through that twenty year period but it can't all be blamed on the oil price collapse. You also had Penn Square Bank, the Urban Renewal plan which had demolished most of downtown but new proposals had been delayed/cancelled leaving the grass lots and surface parking still being filled in today. Then in the '90s you had the 1995 Murrah bombing and the 1999 tornado, both being huge economic and psychological blows to this area. By the early 2000s however the area was really beginning to take off, even with $20 oil. The development at the time may not have been at the standard OKC is seeing now but it was happening nonetheless.

I wouldn't say these two events were bad for economic development. Three tornados in the past 15 years has certainly not slowed Moore's growth any. These events put OKC on the map and showed the world how we band together in times of crisis.

[Just the facts]

If anything, the Murrah Bombing did for OKC what WWII did for America. As tragic as it was, It pumped hundreds of millions of dollars (if not more) into the local economy.

[Laramie]

Enjoy the low gas prices. Now is the time to get in your car and tour the country. Conservative smart oil companies are sitting on cash reserves. Time will come where the price of oil will bounce back & become more stable.

Don't weep for oil companies...

[PhiAlpha]

Enjoy the low gas prices. Now is the time to get in your car and tour the country. Conservative smart oil companies are sitting on cash reserves. Time will come where the price of oil will bounce back & become more stable.

Don't weep for oil companies...

How does "smart oil companies sitting on cash" help all the field employees for service companies that have no work because the E&P companies cut down on their drilling budgets for this year (at minimum)? No one is weeping for oil companies, we are concerned with the effect it will have on the OK economy and OK employees. I'm now hearing that one local E&P company may be laying people off this week as well, that would be a first.

Enjoy your cheap gas while it lasts, but quit making sweeping statements about things you don't understand and stop making comments like "don't weep for oil companies" to dehumanize this. This will effect individuals much more than it will the companies they work (or formerly work) for.

[Laramie]

How does "smart oil companies sitting on cash" help all the field employees for service companies that have no work because the E&P companies cut down on their drilling budgets for this year (at minimum)? No one is weeping for oil companies, we are concerned with the effect it will have on the OK economy and OK employees. I'm now hearing that one local E&P company may be laying people off this week as well, that would be a first.

Enjoy your cheap gas while it lasts, but quit making sweeping statements about things you don't understand and stop making comments like "don't weep for oil companies" to dehumanize this. This will effect individuals much more than it will the companies they work (or formerly work) for.

Cheap gas? You mean 'inexpensive.' Sounds like you got laid or laid off by an oil company?

Don't go there dude, get off that high horse; your head shouldn't explode over a general opinion comment statement.

There is no difference between layoffs in the oil sector and with businesses in general. Layoffs hurt; some oil companies don't have to lay employees off--they could weather this storm. Smaller companies with less cash reserves don't have that option.

[PhiAlpha]

Cheap gas? You mean 'inexpensive.'

Don't go there dude, get off that high horse; your head shouldn't explode over a general comment statement.

There is no difference between layoffs in the oil sector and with businesses in general. Layoffs hurt; some oil companies don't have to lay employees off--they could weather this storm. Smaller companies with less cash reserves don't have that option.

Sorry, the reality now is that $1.60 gas is cheap, your head shouldnt explode over that either.

When you aren't being affected by something, it's easy to throw stones. There is a major difference between oil industry layoffs and layoffs in other industries, oil industry layoffs affect Oklahoma much more than layoffs in most other industries. Oil companies is a general term...ALL service companies, regardless of size, are laying people off right now. MOST E&P companies and midstream companies are not laying people off. So your don't weep for "oil companines" statement is ridiculous because none of us here are doing that. Everyone is discussing the effect energy prices will have on the economy here (because they will have one) and how those prices will affect people here.

Fall off your high horse, again you don't have a darn clue what you're talking about.

[Laramie]

You obviously read too much into my statement...

I do understand this:

If you going to throw stones;

Don't stand to close to the rock pile.

Male menopause reality check? Don't bleed your brain to death...

You may have the 'last word' my dear... ...you need not say may I!