General Weather Discussion - November 2014

[venture]

KFOR is saying that OKC could get up to 4 inches of snow tomorrow.I thought the ground is warm so it will help melt some of the snow once it hits the ground

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.

[catch22]

I guess they are adding up the totals.

2 inch north + 1.5 inch central + half inch south. FOAR INTCHES OF SNAU

[Plutonic Panda]

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.

hey man, don't you question Mike Morgan's practices ok... he can make highways fill up with cars. This guy is the real deal!

[ljbab728]

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.

Mike Morgan wasn't on tonight. LOL

I didn't watch the late weather on KFOR but unless they had a sudden change this was the forecast as of about 9:45PM. I think Aaron Brackett was on tonight and on their website he was predicting 1 - 2 inches in OKC but mentioned possible higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches in northern Oklahoma. It's so funny how some people can't wait to jump on Mike Morgan even when he is nowhere near the TV station and supposed predictions for OKC never happened.

[Anonymous.]

Tonight NAM is dryer, GFS is wetter.

Looks like just N of I-44 corridor is money zone.

[venture]

Mike Morgan wasn't on tonight. LOL

I didn't watch the late weather on KFOR but unless they had a sudden change this was the forecast as of about 9:45PM. I think Aaron Brackett was on tonight and on their website he was predicting 1 - 2 inches in OKC but mentioned possible higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches in northern Oklahoma. It's so funny how some people can't wait to jump on Mike Morgan even when he is nowhere near the TV station and supposed predictions for OKC never happened.

Chief met is still involved with forecasts even if they aren't on the air, because they know it will always come back to them. They don't really get days off.

[venture]

Tonight NAM is dryer, GFS is wetter.

Looks like just N of I-44 corridor is money zone.

Yeah it is going to be interesting to see how things verify with the NAM going pretty dry right about at I-44. Whereas the GFS take 1-3" of snow well south of that line.

[ljbab728]

Chief met is still involved with forecasts even if they aren't on the air, because they know it will always come back to them. They don't really get days off.

Which makes little difference in this case since what Tydude said didn't happen. As I said, people are always too willing to jump on, even if it's hearsay information.

I don't know how long this stays up but here is Aaron saying exactly what I said.

http://kfor.com/weather/#ooid=BvY2Rx...ROcomRX2rG2moJ

[venture]

06Z HRRR has the following Snowfall forecast through 3PM and the 06Z NAM with total precip through 9PM. One interesting part of the NAM is that by mid to late afternoon, it reintensifies a band of snow just south of I-44/40 in the Seminole-Norman area. We'll have to watch and see because GFS has been keeping more moisture further south. If this happens, we could see a quick burst of 1-2 inches of snow in that area. NAM is dried now over North Central into Northeast OK. One thing we need to watch is the storm development on the Gulf coast which can impact the moisture the system will have to play with here.

No major changes to anything right now, but we need to see how the short term models keep evolving. The 06Z RAP is below as well and lines up pretty good with everything else. I will point out that the 07Z HRRR which is running right now, is showing a pretty intense band starting by 6AM over the northern 3 counties of the Metro area. By 8AM the band is well establishing running from Clinton - Kingfisher - Bartlesville. Don't be shocked to see 2-4" out of this line, if this actually sets up as the model is hinting at. Accumulating snow in Oklahoma City proper should start by 8-9AM.



06Z NAM Total Precip



06Z RAP


07Z HRRR showing banding setting up.

[ljbab728]

So you're agreeing with KFOR now? Mike will be pleased even if he is in bed since he's responsible.

[venture]

so you're agreeing with kfor now? Mike will be pleased even if he is in bed since he's responsible.

Just report what the models are actually showing as they come in. Any further discussion of the media needs to go here: http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:36970

[venture]

03Z SREF - Total snowfall between 6AM and 6PM.

[Anonymous.]

Snow echos coming up in NW and WC OK right now. Should start to see atmosphere moisten up over the next few hours heading into sunrise. All about the bands baby!

[venture]

Snow echos coming up in NW and WC OK right now. Should start to see atmosphere moisten up over the next few hours heading into sunrise. All about the bands baby!

Indeed! Alva to Fairview, Taloga, and Arapaho...that area starting to show hints of snow flying above the surface. Just a matter of time.

[OKCisOK4me]

Couple of flakes in the air in NW OKC.

[venture]

So far NW OK has about 2-3 inches reported. Over Central OK snow reported roughly NW of I-44 with some sleet mixed in. SE of I-44 mainly freezing drizzle with a few flakes here and there.

Heaviest band right now is from Osage County SW to near Perry to Kingfisher.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory extended South.

GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...
SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...MARI ETTA...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
1005 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.


* EVENT: WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
BRIDGES AND WALKWAYS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


* TIMING: THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SNOW TOTALS ONE INCH OR LESS. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF OR END COMPLETELY BY EVENING.


* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[BoulderSooner]

Snowing in downtown right now

[Anonymous.]

Looks like band from north of Lawton to south OKC is coming up in intensity a bit.

[kevinpate]

It's snowing?

Dang. Usually I realize when I have entered total hermit mode.
Be safe warm and dry folks.

[venture]

Strongest area of precip right now is over Norman and south Moore. Still not seeing a lot accumulate...maybe a quarter inch here at this time.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like the main low is going to take perfect track across WC into C OK and shove northeast. Just a matter of it holding together.

[BG918]

Next storm the weekend of 11/21-22 looks too warm for snow right now. Maybe some thunderstorms and then a cold rain with another one possibly midweek before Thanksgiving.

[educator1953]

We are getting a light snow right now in Duncan, Oklahoma. Not much is sticking.

Occasional wind gusts blow some snow off the roof of the house.

I was hoping for more snow than we are going to get. I don't mind snow, but I sure don't want any ice.

[John1744]

NWS just extended the weather advisory until 9PM for central OK.