Expansion of OKC and the Metro in the next 20 years

[PWitty]

This website is a great resource for accurate population numbers:

Oklahoma City, OK MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

According to this, the OKC MSA is 1.319 million as of June 2013, while the OKC CSA (MSA+Pottowatomie County) is 1.39 million. If someone is extrapolating current growth rates to now, OKC CSA is likely over 1.4 million.

Further more, if you total up all the net migration (both domestic and international), OKC has added just shy of 37,000 people over a three year period.

I'm a bit of a statistics nerd and could prbably see how this stacks up to our peer cities if someone was interested.

It's crazy looking at the international and domestic migration trends for some of the largest cities. NYC, for instance, had a staggering net loss of 107K domestic migrants, but that was more than offset by a net gain of 126K international migrants. Crazy.

[Thundercitizen]

there still are commute patterns into Oklahoma County but not enough for it to be considered part of the MSA.

Interesting. Wondered about criteria for CSA vs MSA inclusion. Shawnee did seem too distant. What about Chickasha? Same criterion, probably. Not a strong enough commute pattern.

I also had been interested in an off-topic for another thread; TV market size. How Ogden is lumped in with Salt Lake City and why Tulsa wouldn't be included in the OKC/Thunder TV market. Anyway, back to topic.

[adaniel]

Alright folks, without further adieu, here are the requested population growth rates for OKC as well as it's peer metros. For my highly unscientific comparisons, I am using the 5 metros that are gradually bigger and gradually smaller than OKC as of estimates done by the census in 2013. They are, in order of size, Virginia Beach, Providence, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, and Memphis for metros bigger than OKC. And Louisville, Richmond, New Orleans, Hartford, and Raleigh as MSA's smaller than. The components of population growth have been broken down and are from 2010-2013. I am emphasizing the total growth number and total migration number.

Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
2013 Population: 1,702,484
Change from 2010: 30,801
Births-Deaths Surplus: 29,592
Int'l Migration: 15,656
Domestic Migration: -17,728
Total Migration: -2,072

Providence-Fall River, RI-MA
2013 Population: 1,604,291
Change from 2010: 3,439
Births-Deaths Surplus: 6,736
Int'l Migration: 13,365
Domestic Migration: -17,253
Total Migration: -3,888

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
2013 Population: 1,569,659
Change from 2010: 13,751
Births-Deaths Surplus: 21,568
Int'l Migration: 6,547
Domestic Migration: -14,282
Total Migration: -7,735

Jacksonville, FL
2013 Population: 1,394,624
Change from 2010: 49,028
Births-Deaths Surplus: 18,512
Int'l Migration: 9,760
Domestic Migration: 16,932
Total Migration: 26,692

Jacksonville, FL
2013 Population: 1,394,624
Change from 2010: 49,028
Births-Deaths Surplus: 18,512
Int'l Migration: 9,760
Domestic Migration: 16,932
Total Migration: 26,692

Memphis, TN-AR-MS
2013 Population: 1,333,175
Change from 2010: 17,075
Births-Deaths Surplus: 24,364
Int'l Migration: 4,874
Domestic Migration: -13,575
Total Migration: -8,701

Oklahoma City, OK
2013 Population: 1,319,677
Change from 2010: 66,690
Births-Deaths Surplus: 23,706
Int'l Migration: 6,759
Domestic Migration: 30,086
Total Migration: 36,845

Louisville, KY-IN
2013 Population: 1,312,039
Change from 2010: 28,473
Births-Deaths Surplus: 14,324
Int'l Migration: 6,752
Domestic Migration: 5,469
Total Migration: 12,221

Richmond, VA
2013 Population: 1,296,680
Change from 2010: 38,429
Births-Deaths Surplus: 15,432
Int'l Migration: 9,599
Domestic Migration: 11,006
Total Migration: 20,605

New Orleans-Metaire, LA
2013 Population: 1,219,225
Change from 2010: 51,461
Births-Deaths Surplus: 14,799
Int'l Migration: 8,652
Domestic Migration: 21,371
Total Migration: 30,023

Hartford, CT
2013 Population: 1,215,211
Change from 2010: 2,830
Births-Deaths Surplus: 5,873
Int'l Migration: 15,206
Domestic Migration: -18,979
Total Migration: -3,773

Raleigh-Cary, NC
2013 Population: 1,214,516
Change from 2010: 84,026
Births-Deaths Surplus: 27,228
Int'l Migration: 10,875
Domestic Migration: 38,088
Total Migration: 48,963

**FWIW, only Raleigh exceeded OKC's total population growth as well as the total migration number.

[AP]

I'm really impressed with those numbers.

[bchris02]

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[bchris02]

Very impressed by this.

Raleigh is a special case because it's really one urbanized area along with Durham, very similar to Dallas/Ft Worth. For some reason they are still separate MSAs according to the Census Bureau.

[josh]

So, I remember hearing 100 people a day were moving to Austin and thought that was a staggering number. So, I did some research and found the population of the OKC metro area was 1.25 million in 2010 and has gone to an estimated 1.41 million in 2014. That is a difference of 160,000 people in four years, 40,000 per year or 109.6 per day. Now, that is not just people moving here, it is also people being born and dying. Any idea what an accurate estimate would be for this? Maybe 50/day?

Whenever anyone says "X amount of people moved to X city a day" all they're doing is taking the population growth in one year, including births, and diving that number by 365.

For instance, San Antonio grew by 43,000 people from 2012 to 2013. That's 117 people a day moving to San Antonio. But that's not accurate as that includes births.

A more accurate number would just use the domestic and international migration to a city in a year. For San Antonio, that would be 26,000 people, which is 71 people a day moving to San Antonio.

For Oklahoma City, the 2012-2013 growth was 22,000, which is 60 people a day moving to Oklahoma City, but the more accurate domestic/international migration number was 14,000, which is 38 people a day moving to Oklahoma City.

Whenever you see the claim of X amount of people moving to a city, it's always the birth/domestic/international number and not the more accurate domestic/international number.

Also, to clarify your claim, the OKC metro population was 1,252,987. In 2013 the population was 1,319,677, which is a growth of 66,000 or an average of 22,000 a year.

This is the website I used for the figures for OKC. They use official census data.

[bchris02]

OKC's growth is impressive compared to many of its peers, but Texas cities are currently in a league of their own. San Antonio gets overshadowed by Austin but there is quite a bit going on there as well. I always thought San Antonio was better suited to be a major city than Austin simply because of its infrastructure. Austin clearly was never meant to be a large as its become.

[josh]

OKC's growth is impressive compared to many of its peers, but Texas cities are currently in a league of their own. San Antonio gets overshadowed by Austin but there is quite a bit going on there as well. I always thought San Antonio was better suited to be a major city than Austin simply because of its infrastructure. Austin clearly was never meant to be a large as its become.

A lot more going on in San Antonio than most people assume. For instance, the two metro aeas grew by 395,000 and 394,000 respectively between 2000 and 2010. But if you asked most people, you'd think San Antonio's growth during that decade was comparable to Omaha or something, in comparison to the rest of Texas.

It's quite bizarre.

Although, I think recently San Antonio's national perception has greatly changed and continues to with the development and growth of Southtown and Midtown (more so the Pearl) since 2009.


If

[warreng88]

This is hypothetic, probably out of the rhelm of possibilty question: What is something that could happen in OKC to bring Austin/DFW/Charlotte kind of growth to the city? We are seeing a major movement of Boeing moving/hiring 900 people to work in OKC. Would there have to be a major corporate relocation with tens of thousands of jobs?

I feel like we are in the middle/on the cusp of a huge amount of growth and I know we will never be NYC, Chicago or LA, but I do want to see OKC grow and people to stop asking "where is that?"

If we can update our liquor/brewing laws (not a big deal to some, but probably a big deal to millenials), OKC public schools start to improve more and it becomes more walkable, I think we can get there.

[bchris02]

This is hypothetic, probably out of the rhelm of possibilty question: What is something that could happen in OKC to bring Austin/DFW/Charlotte kind of growth to the city? We are seeing a major movement of Boeing moving/hiring 900 people to work in OKC. Would there have to be a major corporate relocation with tens of thousands of jobs?

I feel like we are in the middle/on the cusp of a huge amount of growth and I know we will never be NYC, Chicago or LA, but I do want to see OKC grow and people to stop asking "where is that?"

If we can update our liquor/brewing laws (not a big deal to some, but probably a big deal to millenials), OKC public schools start to improve more and it becomes more walkable, I think we can get there.

High-paying jobs is the #1 thing that will drive long term growth and improvement in OKC. People for the most part choose where they live based on job, friends, and family first and foremost followed by lifestyle. As the city grows, especially if that growth is mostly educated professionals, the amenities will come which will drive even more growth. OKC today is a much easier sell to out of state young professionals than it was ten or even five years ago. It will only get better in the future.

Oklahoma's severe weather season likely gives a lot of out of state transplants second thoughts. It's laughable to a born and bred Okie to be fearful of tornadoes but its a big issue to people who didn't grow up around tornado culture. If there is anything that will help keep a check on runaway growth a-la Austin, it will be that.

OKC is doing a pretty good job already at pushing walkable development. As the city continues to grow urbanization will continue. The city needs to stop granting variances to auto-oriented proposals in the urban core.

Unfortunately, I strongly doubt there will be any meaningful liquor law reform for the foreseeable future. There really isn't the political will in this state to make it happen. However, it would be nice (and may be even realistic) to make a few changes to make the existing laws more workable such as later closing times and legalizing refrigerated beer. Even that though is highly unlikely. Legalizing brewpubs is probably the biggest thing that is needed at the present time. I doubt the liquor laws are a huge factor weighing into people's decisions to move to OKC. They are more of an annoyance to people after they get here.

[HOT ROD]

I think the LCB should offer variances to certain establishments zoned in an entertainment district or something to that effect. If there were specific areas of the city where the city and businesses agree to have amped up security but also allow more relaxed/urbanized amenities, I think it could be a huge boon and allow the city to have even more props when folks visit/move.

---------

As an OKC expat, I can offer my opinion on the other question. I'd LOVE to come back home to OKC if it were not for the weather (not a hot fan). The weather is not going to change but I am very excited about the growth and renaissance of the city and would love to be a part of it. I ONLY wish the renaissance could have started before 1990, some of my decisions might have been different and I might have stuck it out. But now, the trade-off of my occupation and where I am in Seattle vs. moving back to OKC haven't swung in that direction so I don't consider returning as I'm too entrenched here. If OKC gets a strong finance or corporate sector (and things grossly change with my company) then I would strongly consider moving back despite the weather.

So that's it, nothing to do with OKC's image or past reputation or not being on the coast/mountains or whatever tier this or that for me - just a case of where I am professionally and the fact that it isn't available in OKC at the moment, no offense. There are plenty of options for me (at least on paper) here in Seattle or in SF and certainly in Chicago and NYC if I dared to go that relocation route. Now things could change, as my previous employer is now making significant investments in OKC at the moment; and if I was still an engineer at Boeing - I'd likely be moving to OKC (lol).

Who knows? Maybe if DEEP POCKET OKC investors emerge again but this time buy out a certain Seattle-area multinational that I work at and move the HQ to a new home in downtown OKC - then I would very likely and gladly move with it. I'd strongly consider a move if we opened up an office in OKC too.

[HOT ROD]

That aside, I'll happily continue being one of your confirmed tourists every year. You can count on 3 butts-in-seat at least once a year and a significant influx of Seattle based dollars into your local economy. Like our trips back to China, I love to see the progress/renaissance in OKC. In some respects it seems as if my wife's city/state in China and OKC are making similar civic/economic investments and improvements and I love to see it.

The biggest improvement that I've observed in OKC (aside from infrastructure and OPTIONS!!!) is the attitude and pride of most of the residents in the city. People don't apologize too much anymore and definitely prepare to have someone defend OKC now-a-days. Used to be I'd come visit and everyone from the shuttle driver to the hotel staff to the restaurant folks to the airline staff would be apologizing that OKC wasn't this or didn't have that or downright putting the city down (as of 'why would you want to come here?' seriously, I actually had hospitality people IN OKC ask me this). ... Those scenarios were frankly embarrassing, particularly since I am an expat from OKC, to return home to that. I am so GLAD those days are gone - forever! And with the improvements to come, I expect more swagger and confidence from people in OKC and hopefully more things to show off the city matures.

[boitoirich]

+22,000/year and the high rate of in migration reinforces the importance of Plan OKC for me.

[gopokes88]

High-paying jobs is the #1 thing that will drive long term growth and improvement in OKC. People for the most part choose where they live based on job, friends, and family first and foremost followed by lifestyle. As the city grows, especially if that growth is mostly educated professionals, the amenities will come which will drive even more growth. OKC today is a much easier sell to out of state young professionals than it was ten or even five years ago. It will only get better in the future.

Oklahoma's severe weather season likely gives a lot of out of state transplants second thoughts. It's laughable to a born and bred Okie to be fearful of tornadoes but its a big issue to people who didn't grow up around tornado culture. If there is anything that will help keep a check on runaway growth a-la Austin, it will be that.

OKC is doing a pretty good job already at pushing walkable development. As the city continues to grow urbanization will continue. The city needs to stop granting variances to auto-oriented proposals in the urban core.

Unfortunately, I strongly doubt there will be any meaningful liquor law reform for the foreseeable future. There really isn't the political will in this state to make it happen. However, it would be nice (and may be even realistic) to make a few changes to make the existing laws more workable such as later closing times and legalizing refrigerated beer. Even that though is highly unlikely. Legalizing brewpubs is probably the biggest thing that is needed at the present time. I doubt the liquor laws are a huge factor weighing into people's decisions to move to OKC. They are more of an annoyance to people after they get here.

That is actually slowly becoming a reality. The political will power is there for it and it doesn't have to go before state voters it can be changed procedurally with ABLE.

[warreng88]

Unfortunately, I strongly doubt there will be any meaningful liquor law reform for the foreseeable future. There really isn't the political will in this state to make it happen. However, it would be nice (and may be even realistic) to make a few changes to make the existing laws more workable such as later closing times and legalizing refrigerated beer. Even that though is highly unlikely. Legalizing brewpubs is probably the biggest thing that is needed at the present time. I doubt the liquor laws are a huge factor weighing into people's decisions to move to OKC. They are more of an annoyance to people after they get here.

I was thinking more about retailers that want to move here but so much of their business is reliant on wine and higher point beer that they can't do it yet.