General Weather Discussion - September 2014

[venture]

Live Chat @ Weather Spotlight | NWS Norman (OUN) | Storm Prediction Center | Mesonet | West TX Mesonet | NWS OUN Fire Weather | Road Conditions

Current Conditions
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Air Temperature	Dewpoint	Winds	Rainfall Last 24 Hours

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Advisory Table	NWS Norman Warning Area	NWS Tulsa Warning Area
Tornado Warning Tornado Watch Severe T-Storm Warning Severe T-Storm Watch Blizzard Warning Blizzard Watch Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Watch Ice Storm Warning Red Flag Warning Winter Weather Advisory Wind Chill Advisory Wind Chill Warning Freezing Rain Advisory

Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma[hr][/hr]

[hr][/hr]Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
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Day 1 (Today) Outlook	Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Outlook for Days 4 through 8

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National Advisory Map	SPC Mesoscale Discussions (MCD or MD)	Regional Live Lightning Image
	SPC Watches

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

[venture]

New thread is up early this time! Woohoo!

A few changes have been made to the original article post at the top. The format is cleaned up a bit to take advantage of the new theme Pete is using for the site. I also added some new items to try to offer a better array of information that is readily available. From the OK Mesonet site are the maps for current conditions, then the typical warning maps followed by radar and satellite, and then a revamped severe weather section that includes a a lightning image for the Southern Plains. Let me know if there are any other items that should be added.

[venture]

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Fall. It won't feel like it.

It has been some time since I've done one of these, so I'll kick things off with an outlook over the next couple of weeks based on this evenings model runs. Overall, things are going to be in flux a bit as we slowly get out of this summer pattern. This weekend we had a decent trough over the Central US that has brought severe weather to the Central Plains and will continue today (Monday) from the OK/KS border NE to Ohio. This trough will move out in a day or two and we'll move into a zonal pattern with slight ridging. Looking at around the 9th of the month, the ridge should start to get pushed out to the SE US. GFS brings in a pretty significant trough, skirting Oklahoma, around the 12th with another ridge building in behind it.

One thing that stood out looking at this is how the GFS handles the disturbance currently off the SW Mexico coast. It takes this system up the Baja and then off to the NE into New Mexico around the 9th. This could mean some added moisture headed our way if this works out. It also forecasts another tropical system making landfall on Mexico's gulf coast around the 17th. Of course, this is all completely unreliable as tropical system forecasts really don't mean anything until the system has actually formed.

Precip Outlook

• 1st - Monday Evening: GFS pops storms from parts of SW and W OK northeast through Central, Northern, and NE OK. In contract NAM restricts precip to NW and NC OK and possibly NE OK through Monday evening. Some severe hailers/wind possible.
• 2nd - Early Tuesday: GFS has storm chances through the night and early morning, mostly North of I-40. NAM is similar but a bit more aggressive with storm development and eventually drops precip into Southern OK by early afternoon.
• 5th - Friday: Another front comes into the state. Chances of showers/storms early Friday from SW into NE OK. Isolated early, then quiet during the afternoon, and then a new surge of precip North of I-40 by mid evening.
• 6th - Saturday: Scattered showers and storms. Mainly north early, and then the rest of the state except SW later in the day.
• 7th Sunday: Similar to Saturday, but maybe an increase in actual coverage.
• 11th Thursday: Slight chance Central and Northern OK.
• 12th Friday: Chance over much of the state with another front.

[turnpup]

Venture, thank you for all you do for the OKCTalk community. You spend a great deal of time and effort keeping us informed. Over the past few years I've completely quit watching the local weather on TV (except when they're doing live tornado coverage) because I get the most reliable, non-spin information from this forum. It's such a valuable resource! Everyone here benefits from your expertise and level-headed forecasting. You are much appreciated!

[venture]

The short term models are hinting at some higher chances for storms today further south, around the Metro, but I'm not 100% sold on this yet - so we'll just need to monitor how things go.

[John1744]

Venture, thank you for all you do for the OKCTalk community. You spend a great deal of time and effort keeping us informed. Over the past few years I've completely quit watching the local weather on TV (except when they're doing live tornado coverage) because I get the most reliable, non-spin information from this forum. It's such a valuable resource! Everyone here benefits from your expertise and level-headed forecasting. You are much appreciated!

Just want to echo these sentiments, I've learned so much from venture and the folks here in the last couple of years on top of my already decent Okie weather education!

[venture]

Watch possible for Northern OK.

[Bunty]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Updated: Mon Sep-01-14 03:35pm CDT
Effective: Mon Sep-01-14 03:35pm CDT
Expires: Mon Sep-01-14 10:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garfield; Grant; Kay; Mayes; Noble; Nowata; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Rogers; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 486 is in effect until 1000 pm cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are alfalfa craig creek delaware garfield grant kay mayes noble nowata osage ottawa pawnee payne rogers tulsa wagoner washington.

[venture]

Most of the development for now has been either right on the KS border or north. One cell is attempting to go up north of Ringwood and should head north of Enid. Will watch for any further development to the south this evening.

[venture]

Band of towering CU is going from the Enid Area all the way back to Elk City. I don't expect everything to pop, but the potential is there that one or two might get going further south on that line.

[venture]

This is for NE OK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 652 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF EDNA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

[venture]

Storm approaching the areas from Enid up to Kremlin is border line severe right now, so heads up.

Tornado warned storm out east north of Welch. Up in Kansas some pretty tough storms, including one monster that is just NE of Arkansas City. History of hail up to 3 inches and a well defined hook on it.

EDIT 7:12PM - Storm north of Lahoma moving east towards Enid and Kremlin is now severe warned.

[venture]

Severe storm continues to sit over Enid with 1" hail confirmed in the city. New storms are starting to fill down the line from that storm SW past Canton to near Oakwood. Storm motions are changing to E to ESE, so chances are going up slightly that we'll get some rain around the Metro area.

[venture]

New storms are now severe moving towards Okeene and eventually Hennessey and possibly Dover and Kingfisher (the far NW reaches of the Metro area).

[venture]

Tornado Warning Osage County in NE OK...Confirmed TOR.

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140902T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-
907 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...


AT 905 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELGIN...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.


SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[venture]

Radar update on the severe storms that will be moving through at lease the Northern part of the metro area.

[venture]

MCS developing over NE OK. Moving SE. Winds to 70 mph or higher likely (and reported) with it. Warnings are going out well in advance of the precipitation at this point - all the way to Pryor SE of I-44.

For Central OK, storms continue to fire and now are developing back into Custer County. New Watch is up until 3AM to account for these.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON

[Bunty]

It will be interesting to see if the approaching storm decides to make a sharp right turn to bypass Stillwater and give OKC a good hit.

[venture]

[venture]

Additional development on the last couple of scans now showing up all the way back into Collingsworth, County in the TX panhandle. We'll have to see how intensities go with these, otherwise we might see a watch extension to account for this new development.

[silvergrove]

Think these storms have enough juice to actually reach the metro for some rain?

[venture]

Think these storms have enough juice to actually reach the metro for some rain?

Hopefully. Indications that another line will form early tomorrow morning as well, so if we don't get something from this line there is always the next one.

[Bunty]

The east end of the storm is in the process of dissipating before it can reach Stillwater. The part of the storm that may affect OKC is holding up better, but not by much.

[venture]

Line is just about done at this point. I'm not really expecting much to make Oklahoma County at all. Looking at the short term models this evening, next batch of storms should be moving in around daybreak.

[venture]

AM storms are pretty much as expected. Back edge of the line is through the northern tier of counties in the state and are now east of Highway 81. Heaviest amounts are going to be NE of the OKC area.