General Weather Discussion - June 2014

[venture]

Pawnee County storm needs to be watched for a quick spin up.

[venture]

Anon and myself are in the chat room now, FYI. Feel free to jump in.

[venture]

Storm is now Tornado warned.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT


* AT 1036 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOONER LAKE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

[Anonymous.]

Look out N of Tulsa area. Those new cells are already rotating. Heading south.

[Anonymous.]

Latest projected totals over the next 7 days: (most of this will fall in the next 3-4 days)

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060449Z - 060645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM SERN CO INTO TX. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IF STORM
COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND HAS BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN CO THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE STORMS DYING ACROSS THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. RECENTLY...A SEVERE
STORM WAS ENTERING WRN KIOWA COUNTY CO BUT THE SAME DEMISE IS
EXPECTED AS ITS PREDECESSORS.

TO THE S...STORM ACTIVITY HAS QUIETED FOR THE MOMENT...BUT STRONG
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AN AXIS FROM ERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK. THIS IS ALSO WHERE A BOUNDARY LIES...WITH
NELY 850 MB WINDS AT AMA AND SSELY 850 MB WINDS AT LBB PER VWPS.

WITH SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
RAPIDLY...AND A WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY IF THIS OCCURS. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014

[venture]

TX Panhandle is going up fast now. I need to get some sleep before work though. Will update if possible.

[Anonymous.]

Yup. This will be our main MCS. Erupting out there!

[Bunty]

NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Payne (Oklahoma)
Updated: Fri Jun-06-14 01:45am CDT
Effective: Fri Jun-06-14 01:45am CDT
Expires: Fri Jun-06-14 08:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Comanche; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Jackson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Logan; Major; McClain; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Roger Mills; Wa****a

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 237 is in effect until 800 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are alfalfa beckham blaine caddo canadian cleveland comanche custer dewey garfield grady grant greer harmon jackson kay kingfisher kiowa logan major mcclain noble oklahoma payne roger mills wash ita

[venture]

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

[venture]

Two warnings right now in the Metro...

AT 559 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EL RENO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 645 AM CDT


* AT 605 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
FORT COBB...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

[bandnerd]

How much rain are we looking at?

[venture]

Radar estimates have it around a half inch to an inch typically with these storms. Some areas more...some less.

[bandnerd]

Thank you

It would be a neat feature on radar if they could put estimated totals in, instead of just "red is scary" and "green is a sprinkle."

[venture]

Local watch extension...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 237 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS
MORNING

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

LINCOLN POTTAWATOMIE

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARVIN STEPHENS

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY AND SHAWNEE.

[venture]

New warning for the southern half of the MCS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 639 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF TABLER TO 4 MILES WEST OF MARLOW TO
NEAR COOKIETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.


HAZARD...60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

[venture]

Warning for the Northern half of the MCS, including nearly the entire Metro area...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 643 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDMOND TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO
NEAR TABLER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

[venture]

Area of most significant wind is going to be north of Mustang along I-40 to the west of I-44.

[venture]

Winds starting to pick up along the line now from NW Cleveland County to Newcastle - Blanchard - Dibble.

Very photogenic shelf cloud being reported with this.

[venture]

Warning for the part of the MCS north of Guthrie...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 650 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VANCE AIR FORCE BASE TO 5 MILES EAST OF BISON
TO 5 MILES EAST OF DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 705 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 237...

DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE OF STORMS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME...AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/ EWD-PROPAGATING STORMS...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO/ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

[venture]

Reloading and doing it again tonight.

...CO/NM/KS/OK...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN NM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED/BACKED
DUE TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROMOTING SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...BEFORE UPSCALE
GROWTH OCCURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEAT THE EVOLUTION OF LAST
NIGHT...WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK OVERNIGHT.

[Anonymous.]

Recipe for round 2 is already in place. Sun is out cooking up the steam bath from this morning. Going to be very unstable across much of OK later this eve.

[Charlie40]

Do you think we will get some good storms going here in central Oklahoma before the overnight stuff rolls through?

[Anonymous.]

Early MD is out:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061829Z - 062100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS ANALYZED OVER THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF MULTIPLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING PRECEDING DAYS.
RESIDUAL CONFLUENCE AXES ARE ANALYZED WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND SWRN KS...WITH THE SRN-MOST OF THESE
FEATURES SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION FROM
GRANT COUNTY TO COMANCHE COUNTY KS. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES
COVER THE AREA...WHERE ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY IS LIKELY MITIGATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE -- E.G. AROUND 8 C/KM IN THE
H7-H5 LAYER PER DDC 12Z RAOB -- AMIDST MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS SUCH...THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 12-HOUR REDUCTIONS OF H7
CAPPING PER DDC AND OUN RAOBS...AND ASCENT POSSIBLY RELATED TO
HIGH-LEVEL TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED IN CLOUD STRUCTURES EMERGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS/GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT AT THE NOSE OF AN UPPER
JET. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 55-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
HOWEVER...IF SFC CONDITIONS MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY OWING TO POCKETS OF
INSOLATION AND/OR LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OCCURS...DMGG
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. REGARDLESS...THERE STILL REMAINS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO THE EARLIER OVERTURNING AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014



Difficult forecast with all of the leftover boundaries from this morning's convection. There are pretty much stationary outflow boundaries stalled out over much of the SC Plains that may or may not have impacts on additional development late this afternoon.