Malaysian Airlines Flight 370

[Just the facts]

As the search continues with no results I am curious what our resident aviation experts think happened.

I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

[Dustin]

This is like an episode of Lost.

So freaky. I can't believe they haven't found it yet.

[kevinpate]

We are of peace. Always.


- what if it wasn't just a reboot after all?

[PennyQuilts]

I keep thinking about the families. They must have assumed their loved ones were lost and that is awful, enough. Now? They have to be living in the hell of just not knowing and actually having hope.

Makes me wonder if the pilots were involved. Or perhaps the baggage folks on the ground who unloaded the luggage for the five people who didn't get on board (they could shift certain contents to other bags). I am perplexed that (if it turns out to be true) the plane began turning around. Mysterious.

[SoonerDave]

As the search continues with no results I am curious what our resident aviation experts think happened.

I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

No huge aviation expert here, but I have to believe the aircraft was under someone's radar observation somewhere, and I believe altitude would be part of the normal data reported...

The fact that we've not seen any damage is just mystifying. I realize some have posted speculation about it "disintegrating" in air, but one has to think of just what kind of an explosion it would take to completely vaporize an airplane.....

[Dustin]

I keep thinking about the families. They must have assumed their loved ones were lost and that is awful, enough. Now? They have to be living in the hell of just not knowing and actually having hope.

I wouldn't be able to function. The thought of it just makes me sick to my stomach.

[PennyQuilts]

No huge aviation expert here, but I have to believe the aircraft was under someone's radar observation somewhere, and I believe altitude would be part of the normal data reported...

The fact that we've not seen any damage is just mystifying. I realize some have posted speculation about it "disintegrating" in air, but one has to think of just what kind of an explosion it would take to completely vaporize an airplane.....

Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

[SoonerDave]

Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

Yup, it was marine fuel. And I heard a report earlier today that said US satellite info found no evidence of a large explosion in the area.

This is just bizarre.

[Snowman]

Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

Ground radar only goes out so far over water (off hand I want to say the useful range is something like 50 miles due to the curve of the earth), plus there can be dead zones from topography or natural false readings, most of the news stories I have seen saying radar probably are really talking about the signal from the transponder.

[RadicalModerate]

Perhaps the Bermuda Triangle decided to move to Maylasia?

[Achilleslastand]

When the plane made last contact how many hours of fuel were left? This is pure speculation but at this point maybe its time to realize you are searching in the wrong area.

[PennyQuilts]

I always worry when my kids travel (what parent doesn't?) but my two girls, SIL and one of my grand babies flew to New Zealand and landed this morning. I was pretty on edge imagining how awful it would be if their plane just vanished. Actually, I didn't really imagine it because as soon as I tried to formulate a thought in that regard my brain would flatline.

[Rajah]

Air traffic controllers keep track of planes via "non radar" zones due to terrain obstruction or equipment inabilities due to distance restrictions. Surely this flight was over one during this time.

[PennyQuilts]

They said it had just entered Vietnam airspace - nothing has been reported to the effect that they weren't being tracked. I need to go look at a map of the area. For all I know, there are a number of nearby airports.

[Just the facts]

I know the pilots can use on-board instruments to determine altitude but how do people on the ground know? I thought it was sent through the transponder, and if so, is there any way to send the wrong altitude? When the Air France flight crashed in the Atlantic it took 5 days to find the debris field but this area is heavily populated and if it exploded 10 of thousands, if not millions, of people would have seen it - especially at night. It would have been a huge flash at 35,000 feet. You would be able to see it for over a hundred miles. I am wondering if it landed somewhere. I have to think if it was a terrorist bomb someone would have claimed responsibility by now.

[OKCisOK4me]

There is a Bermuda Triangle over on that side of the planet but it is off the coast of Japan, so I doubt that would be it. It does seem like a Flight 815 scenario OR the movie Millinium with Kris Kristopherson except that the future kept the plane too.

[Just the facts]

Never mind, it seems they have found parts of the plane.

Searchers Report Spotting Plane Debris - WSJ.com

[LocoAko]

Never mind, it seems they have found parts of the plane.

Searchers Report Spotting Plane Debris - WSJ.com

That article is from yesterday afternoon. IIRC they've disproved the connection with that debris since then.

[Just the facts]

That article is from yesterday afternoon. IIRC they've disproved the connection with that debris since then.

Yep - just read that it wasn't part of the plane.

Malaysia Crash Search Taps Technology as Debris Eludes - Bloomberg

[Achilleslastand]

This has to be unprecedented. Almost 72 hours since she went missing and still nothing. If the plane did in fact have several hours of fuel left their search radius is going to have be pretty huge. I keep thinking back about what happened to Payne Stewart and wondering if that could have happened to all crew and passengers in this case.

[Snowman]

This has to be unprecedented. Almost 72 hours since she went missing and still nothing. If the plane did in fact have several hours of fuel left their search radius is going to have be pretty huge. I keep thinking back about what happened to Payne Stewart and wondering if that could have happened to all crew and passengers in this case.

You would have to add some qualifiers for 72 hours to be unprecedented

[ljbab728]

You would have to add some qualifiers for 72 hours to be unprecedented

True. I think it's been a little more than 72 hours since we last heard from Amelia.

[catch22]

I know the pilots can use on-board instruments to determine altitude but how do people on the ground know? I thought it was sent through the transponder, and if so, is there any way to send the wrong altitude? When the Air France flight crashed in the Atlantic it took 5 days to find the debris field but this area is heavily populated and if it exploded 10 of thousands, if not millions, of people would have seen it - especially at night. It would have been a huge flash at 35,000 feet. You would be able to see it for over a hundred miles. I am wondering if it landed somewhere. I have to think if it was a terrorist bomb someone would have claimed responsibility by now.

Radar scopes combine two sets of data to correctly track airplanes.

Primary display is pure radar data. There is no information being transmitted, just radar reflections. Dots moving around.
Secondary display is transponder interrogation.

At the beginning of a flight, controllers assign a 4-digit squawk code to the flight plan of the airplane. On the runway (or at airports with Ground Radar -- at the beginning of taxi), the pilots will switch their transponder on and set it to Mode C. Under Mode C, when the ground based transponder interrogator makes a sweep (on the same sweep rate and radial as the primary radar -- in sync) and the transponder gets pinged, it immediately broadcasts the unique transponder code, and the aircraft's unique HEX transponder identifier, and the pressure altitude. The primary radar reports the position of a dot, and at the same time the secondary reported a transponder in the same exact location, it identifies that dot as a particular aircraft. It then grabs the data -- gets the squawk code which identifies the flight number, flight plan, aircraft type, and other information in the flight plan database, and displays that information next to the primary target. In the data stream, the aircraft's reported altitude was in the Mode C transmission, and is also reported next to the primary target.



Top text is the callsign
Bottom left is Altitude in thousands (025 is 2,500 ft)
Bottom right is calculated ground speed based on the distance the target moved between sweeps.

The N in the middle of the target, means that radar sector N has control of that aircraft (Which is facility specific -- basically what workstation has control). C is a different controller/radar workstation, so the data doesn't fully display since another controller has control of that airplane.

Basically secondary data reports all the information, and applies it to the primary target.

[gjl]

I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

All general and commercial aviation aircraft should equipped with an altitude reporting transponder. There may be even more sophisticated altitude reporting devices on commercial aircraft.

The fact that there wasn't even a mayday call indicates that what ever happened, the pilot and copilot had to have been incapacitated pretty much instantly. It doesn't take but pushing a button with your thumb and speaking into the mike in front of your mouth to issue a mayday call.

[Snowman]

All general and commercial aviation aircraft should equipped with an altitude reporting transponder. There may be even more sophisticated altitude reporting devices on commercial aircraft.

The fact that there wasn't even a mayday call indicates that what ever happened, the pilot and copilot had to have been incapacitated pretty much instantly. It doesn't take but pushing a button with your thumb and speaking into the mike in front of your mouth to issue a mayday call.

It also could indicate the problem impacted their electrical systems/radio or that what ever happened was very quick and they never had the time to get through there initial reactions to start sending a mayday call