General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[Anonymous.]

Extreme bust potential for this one tomorrow. Any jog to the north or south is going to be a totally different story. Somewhat like last storm, only this one has dry slot factor added into the mix. If the low becomes too unwrapped, the dry air could erode into the snow and basically shut it off much earlier than expected resulting in little snow. However, if it stays more wrapped up or the track of the low is further south, it will pull the sharp gradient of heavy snow to the north of C OK, with it.

I would say right now it looks like N OKC maybe 2 inches. S OKC maybe 1 inch.

These are pretty conservative, but the models nailed last storm and they seem to be pointing at this scenario for multiple days now. We have a few more solid model runs this morning and later today to help nail it down further.

Latest GFS wants to keep the storm more "pancaked" and would keep snow machine cranking in northern OK longer.

[Soonerman12]

ANON.... What do you think for the Tulsa area tomorrow?

[Anonymous.]

Tulsa is in same boat as OKC as the storm will shove off the NE instead of E like last storm.

Tulsa looking like 2 inch N side and maybe 1 S side. Again, a track further south or a more closed low will throw 2-4 more inches onto those numbers easily. Going to have to track this minute by minute with the ejection of the storm.

[venture]

12Z NAM appears to be a bit further south with things this morning.

Through 3AM Tuesday - Precip kicks off over much of Central and West OK. Isolated pockets will get up to an inch of snow in this time frame, most just a dusting to a half inch.
3AM to 6AM - Rates continue to increase over much of the state as the dryslot hasn't pushed in yet. Mostly an inch with some amounts up to 2 inches for NC OK back through the East Metro and east along I-40. Also WC OK could see some 2" amounts during this time.
6AM to 9AM - Moderate to heavy snow over NW and NC OK. Anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of snow during this time frame in those areas. Metro looks like 2-3" on the far north side, 1-2" Central Metro, and 1" or Less south of Norman.
9AM to 12PM Noon - Dry slot kicks in and kills off much of the precip south of I-40 for much of the state. Northern OK will still have moderate snow with another 2-4" possible. Metro amounts look generally an inch or less.
After 12PM - Snow moves off to the east rapidly and Storm #2 is done except for some light snow showers/flurries in the wrap around that won't amount to anything.

Metro Totals... South Metro/Norman area probably 1-2" with 3" totals closer to Moore/S OKC possible give or take, Central Metro/OKC 2-3" with maybe 4" amounts further north you go, and North Metro 3-5" possible. Confidence in this forecast is pretty low because I almost expect the dryslot to just come busting in and shut things down faster.

The 12Z GFS isn't far off from this, so I'm not going to rehash it all just to change one or two words.

[Anonymous.]

Winter Storm Warnings extended a row of counties south.

Latest model data insisting potentially heavier amounts further south. It is going to be a close one for OKC.

[venture]

Winter Storm Warnings extended a row of counties south.

Latest model data insisting potentially heavier amounts further south. It is going to be a close one for OKC.

Mmhmm. I had to show a good amount of restraint in my snowfall totals for the Metro, because honestly...the 12Z runs and the QPF for the area does support higher totals. Experience just says that the dryslots down here tend to punch in faster than the models typically give in to.

[Anonymous.]

Confidence in this forecast is pretty low because I almost expect the dryslot to just come busting in and shut things down faster.

I am with you on this. I have a hard time believing the dry slot is going to stop just before I-40. We have seen these things time and time again run a pocket of dry ait directly into heavy snow bands shutting it all down.

[Anonymous.]

New WRF bringing heavier amounts further south. But it is still a very sharp cut off from 6+ inches to only about 1 inch.

[Charlie40]

Where does Moore fall on this map with snowfall amounts? Me guessing where Moore and Cleveland county are approximately on the map I would guess moore was in the 3-5" range ?

New WRF bringing heavier amounts further south. But it is still a very sharp cut off from 6+ inches to only about 1 inch.

[venture]

Norman is 35.225, -97.439... which puts us under 1"....Moore about the same. I would guess the leading edge of the 6"+ is northern OK county very near Edmond.

[ou48A]

New WRF bringing heavier amounts further south. But it is still a very sharp cut off from 6+ inches to only about 1 inch.

So if this bumps it's self another 40 miles further south virtually the entire OKC metro gets a decent snow but if it bumps north the OKC area receives very little snow.


It there currently a high degree of confidences on the storms track ?

[venture]

12Z Euro isn't much different than NAM and GFS except it is really light on the precip, but it might just be the display option that Wx Underground is using. Has around 1-2" for Norman, around 2" for OKC, and up to 9" north of Enid. It's not doing a very tight gradient like the others over the Metro area.

Bottom line, it'll snow tomorrow.

[venture]

Winter wx advisory expanded an additional row of counties south.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR shows freezing rain/sleet riding up ahead of system beginning as early as midnight along I-44 corridor. With ground temperatures being so cold and snowpack in SW OK, we could have an ice glazing before snow impact later.

[Easy180]

12Z Euro isn't much different than NAM and GFS except it is really light on the precip, but it might just be the display option that Wx Underground is using. Has around 1-2" for Norman, around 2" for OKC, and up to 9" north of Enid. It's not doing a very tight gradient like the others over the Metro area.

Bottom line, it'll snow tomorrow.

Any ice? Stupid national forecasters have icy graphics but then again they had the same for yesterday

[Tydude]

KOCOBrad: At 2:15 pm, new data coming in suggests an even snowier Tuesday in OKC. Watch @KOCOdamonlane for that new snowfall forecast at 5pm

[Anonymous.]

Logan and Payne counties just got added to Winter Storm Warning - posting 5-10 inch forecast.

[sacolton]

Pfft. Looks like OKC is just gonna get a dusting of snow. All the action will be up north.

[OKCisOK4me]

KOCOBrad: At 2:15 pm, new data coming in suggests an even snowier Tuesday in OKC. Watch @KOCOdamonlane for that new snowfall forecast at 5pm

I'm sure Venture or Anon will be discussing that new forecast here before Damon Lane's debut at 5PM.

[Easy180]

I'm sure Venture or Anon will be discussing that new forecast here before Damon Lane's debut at 5PM.

I will stick with those guys...Now my wife will surely go with Damon lol

[jn1780]

I'm sure Venture or Anon will be discussing that new forecast here before Damon Lane's debut at 5PM.

They've been talking about it.

[venture]

18Z NAM...
No real changes. It does seem to get the main precip shield going a bit further west of I-35 than what it was before. Looking at QPF output it is around 0.2 to 0.3" for Cleveland County, 0.3-0.35 for OK County, and then up from there the farther north to you maxing out at 0.7" in Woods County. Which in snowfall amounts, this is what it is kicking out:

[ultimatesooner]

KOCOBrad: At 2:15 pm, new data coming in suggests an even snowier Tuesday in OKC. Watch @KOCOdamonlane for that new snowfall forecast at 5pm

I rather watch my own fist hit my own face for the next 2 hours

[LocoAko]

18Z GFS definitely looks further south from my cursory glance at Twisterdata.

Excluding the high outlier, the SREF plume mean has 2.3" for Norman, 3" at Will Rogers, and 5.5" by Enid.

Edited to add: Eh, maybe not. Just looped the dProg/dt on Twisterdata and it seems to be bouncing around with the margin of the most recent runs.

[bandnerd]

I rather watch my own fist hit my own face for the next 2 hours

Geez, that's harsh. He's actually a really nice guy. He came to my school and spoke with my news staff for a podcast about this winter's weather and was very knowledgable. But I know it's the norm to bash the local mets here

Anxious to see how much school we miss this week. Contest season for me.