Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

[venture]

Not too tough to pick out the cold front which is running a bit ahead of schedule.

[sacolton]

Anyone want to bet on school/business closings for Friday?

[Jesseda]

[sacolton]

I say Gov. Fallin (if she has a kind heart) will close all State offices before 8:00 a.m. tomorrow.

[Of Sound Mind]

I say Gov. Fallin (if she has a kind heart) will close all State offices before 8:00 a.m. tomorrow.

It's not like anyone would notice. ;-)

[foodiefan]

any guesses as to what time the precip will arrive? TV weather folks just keep saying tonight and Friday am but sure would like to know if it is around
6 pm. . . 10 pm. . .midnight??

[OKCisOK4me]

Is this system going to create a road issue considering ground temps are still pretty warm or is it primarily going to be a danger from above storm (trees and powerlines)? I know bridges and overpasses are a concern but if I'm driving to work tomorrow morning, how long is it going to take to cautiously drive 10 miles on city streets?

[Of Sound Mind]

Is this system going to create a road issue considering ground temps are still pretty warm or is it primarily going to be a danger from above storm (trees and powerlines)? I know bridges and overpasses are a concern but if I'm driving to work tomorrow morning, how long is it going to take to cautiously drive 10 miles on city streets?

http://www.okctalk.com/current-event...tml#post709401

Post #125

[venture]

any guesses as to what time the precip will arrive? TV weather folks just keep saying tonight and Friday am but sure would like to know if it is around
6 pm. . . 10 pm. . .midnight??

Going by the HRRR (which is the short term model) looks like Frontal Passage happens around 3PM today with some rain possible a storm or two. Behind it maybe some drizzle as the cold air comes in. We will start falling through the 30s by drive time this evening, but things should still be okay. NAM doesn't show much precip until early tomorrow morning when it begins to increase in intensity quite a bit.

[venture]

I do have the chat room open now with the twitter updates popping in from time to time: Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage

I'll be in an out most of the day as I sit here coding away all day.

[venture]

This is the weekend NAM Snow storm that Anon was hinting at earlier. Snow would be late morning on Saturday through Sunday (NAM period ends during Sunday)...

[SoonerDave]

So if you were to measure distance by putting your index finger and thumb this far apart, how close are we to a true "bread and milk" warning for tomorrow?

Or is it still too close to call?

[OKCisOK4me]

5+".... Sounds great...

[Luke]

So I'm driving to OKC right now from florida. Current plan is to drive halfway and stay in Alabama tonight and arrive in OKC about 3 or 4 tomorrow afternoon. If we drive straight through we would get into OKC about 10 or 11 tonight. What am I looking at weather wise in either situation? And which would be better for traveling?

[SomeGuy]

venture I get out of college at 4 pm on Fridays, will there be any winter precip and what will roads be like by then?

[venture]

I think we really need to see how the precip starts developing later tonight to get a good idea of what tomorrow is going to be like. If the GFS verifies as mostly dry, this is all for nothing. If NAM verifies, some areas will probably need to be upgraded in the advisory level.

[venture]

Update from Norman...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
956 AM CST THU NOV 21 2013


.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. NONE
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE DONE WELL WITH THIS TIMING AND
THE TIMING IS EVEN QUICKER THAN THE ACCELERATED TIMING THAT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WORKED IN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH AN EVEN
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO WHAT THE RAP IS
FORECASTING.

[venture]

12Z GFS is still pretty much completely dry. Time to see who is right in all of this.

[SoonerDave]

12Z GFS is still pretty much completely dry. Time to see who is right in all of this.

"A Tale of Two Models..."

"It was the best of models, it was the worst of models, it was the age of Venture, it was the age of Morgan, it was the epoch of confidence intervals, it was the epoch of dry slots...It was the season of GFS, it was the season of Reed Timmer..."

..just a little literary humor between model runs

[venture]

Damon just retweeted a pic of sand trucks out already...sigh. Does anyone know if the brine trucks are already out pre-treating bridges?

[sacolton]

Damon just retweeted a pic of sand trucks out already...sigh. Does anyone know if the brine trucks are already out pre-treating bridges?

Kinda putting the cart before the horse.

[Anonymous.]

Has sand ever in the history of life given people more traction in winter weather?

I don't get the sand stuff...

[Bunty]

Not too tough to pick out the cold front which is running a bit ahead of schedule.

Oh, wow, gotta get my dozen pansies planted that I bought at Lowe's for 75% off before the temperature starts plummeting. I never tried growing pansies before to have flowers during the winter. I know I'm a little late. I hope they're blooming nice by Christmas.

[venture]

12Z GFS for Sunday/Monday storm...

Some variance here based on how precip falls. I would side with more snow than freezing rain, but that really depends on any warm air getting pulled up in the upper levels ahead of the main system. So for right now if we are looking at all snow, OKC area specifically only here, 2-4". If we get some warm air pulled in, which is what GFS is thinking right now, look at < 1" of snow plus up to 0.25" of freezing rain and 0.25" of sleet. Depending on how the next few model runs evolve, don't be shocked to see Winter Storm Watches put up for Sunday and Monday.

[venture]

Has sand ever in the history of life given people more traction in winter weather?

I don't get the sand stuff...

They turn our cars red more than anything. I've always chalked it up to the city/state being too cheap with buying salt. Not that salt is all that great for a car either, but at least it melts the stuff.