Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

[venture]

Front is moving through the NW side of the Metro area now, almost into the inner core/downtown. Some light drizzle with this...as well as a few scattered showers just behind it. Should be through most of the populated metro area here in the next hour or two. Enjoy the 60s that are out there right now...they are gone after this.

[sacolton]

[s00nr1]

This would be interesting:

[venture]

This would be interesting:

Mmhmm. I put it on the last page. Granted things are going to scroll away fast now. This thread has added like 2,000 views today so far. LOL

[CuatrodeMayo]

Wind just shifted from the north about 15 min ago in Midtown.

[Anonymous.]

I am really interested into what happens Sunday into Monday. Right now GFS is way slower to eject the low and dumps heavy precip via wrap-around over main body of OK. However, right now it is in the form of rain.

NAM ejects it faster but with moderate precip. over main body of OK.


One thing I do know, by the time Sunday rolls around - ground temperatures will have had about 48 hours of freezing to sub-freezing temperatures. So any frozen precipitation will be accumulating.

[SoonerDave]

So, putting one's speculating cap on, if the 18Z GFS comes out again with a dry solution, does that constitute enough consistency to say the Friday scenario isn't as big a deal as the Sunday/Monday scenario?

Or do we still have the models competing on moisture for tomorrow?

[venture]

So, putting one's speculating cap on, if the 18Z GFS comes out again with a dry solution, does that constitute enough consistency to say the Friday scenario isn't as big a deal as the Sunday/Monday scenario?

Or do we still have the models competing on moisture for tomorrow?

If the NAM goes dry, then I would start writing tomorrow off. They are both stubbornly locked into their solutions - which is nothing new with winter systems.

[s00nr1]

Looking at current obs I'd say the NAM had a better handle on the cold air intrusion -- remains to be seen which model handles the precip more accurately.

[venture]

Light freezing drizzle/icing being reported from a few folks in NW OK already.

[OKCisOK4me]

Give me liquid winter precip that doesn't freeze, snow, or a dry slot and I'll be happy. No bueno for sleet, ice and freezing rain!

[LocoAko]

Man, this front is flying and way ahead of schedule. Already cleared Norman. I don't know what that means in terms of the overrunning precipitation developing, but I don't envy the forecasters right now.

[silvergrove]

When is the next NAM sounding?

[venture]

18Z NAM is in...running drier for the first half and then moderate precip later Friday and overnight into Saturday.

[LocoAko]

Looks like there is minor icing starting to go in NW OK:


*
Gage, OK:
KGAG 212053Z AUTO 35014KT 4SM BR OVC007 M02/M03 A3024 RMK AO2 PK WND 35027/2033 SLP245 60000 T10171028 51023
*
Woodward, OK:
KWWR 212055Z AUTO 34014G19KT 4SM BR OVC005 00/M01 A3026 RMK AO2
*
Alva, OK:
KAVK 212050Z AUTO 36017G24KT 2SM -RA OVC006 00/M01 A3024 RMK AO2

[SoonerDave]

18Z NAM is in...running drier for the first half and then moderate precip later Friday and overnight into Saturday.

How late Friday to start, venture?

[venture]

Drizzle and fog behind the front is just icing stuff up pretty good now in places.

[venture]

How late Friday to start, venture?

Freezing drizzle is already starting in places...so there might be a glaze over things from tonight regardless of when the heavier precip moves in. Right now its after noon for the heavier precip.

Also a side note to the weekend. 18Z NAM continues snow storm...

[ou48A]

I don't know why but many, many times and probably over a hundred times I have seen these arctic cold fronts move in much faster than the expected.

Its almost like there is a land friction component to them. They start moving faster than expected on the flat Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas panhandle plains, sometimes more so on the high plains west of the 100th meridian?

[venture]

I've been working on the new Winter Weather model comparison page for the website. Still trying to figure out how to work in the 18Z/06Z models, but will probably just have to do that on another page.

Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage

[Anonymous.]

Wet-bulb temps really starting to fall as the sun sets.

Look for rapid temperature drops as soon as drizzle and fog form behind this front. NW OK is a good example of this effect. They are in the mid to upper 20s and we aren't even dark yet.

[Anonymous.]

WSWatch issued for southern TX Panhandle for the duration of the event (through Tuesday with emphasis on icing tomorrow).

WSWatch issued for W Central TX for the duration of the event (through Sunday with emphasis on minor accumulations).


Goes to show you just how different areas are in their criteria for watches/warnings in weather events.

[venture]

Yeah for sure. Though if we see some consistency in the models for Sunday/Monday...I wouldn't doubt OUN pulling the trigger on a WSW by tomorrow afternoon.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory extended to cover all of South Central OK now.

[Anonymous.]

Just drove from downtown okc to north. Drizzle and fog developing.