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Thread: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

  1. #1126

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    I am sad we will not break the precipitation record.

    Looks like New Years storm dead and we are looking around Jan 6ish.

  2. #1127

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    New Years storm trying to backtrack back to the northwest. Models will have better handle once this cold front comes through this weekend.

  3. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    GFS has us snow free through the first 10ish days in January. However, it is building a lot of cold air in Western Canada that might flood down by mid-January.

  4. #1129

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    GFS has us snow free through the first 10ish days in January. However, it is building a lot of cold air in Western Canada that might flood down by mid-January.
    So does flooding cold air equal snow?

  5. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by ljbab728 View Post
    So does flooding cold air equal snow?
    Not without moisture. Still way to far out to see if we'll have any moisture in here. There are 3 chances of precip coming up where there should be moisture in the state, but most of it will be Eastern OK. Still some very light precip around here or extremely slight chance...

    Jan 7th - Light Rain
    Jan 10th - Light Snow/Sleet
    Jan 12th - Light Rain

    When I say extremely slight...max precip amounts are around 0.03 to 0.05" of liquid...and most, again, is well east of I-35. We'll see what happens.

  6. #1131

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Not without moisture. Still way to far out to see if we'll have any moisture in here. There are 3 chances of precip coming up where there should be moisture in the state, but most of it will be Eastern OK. Still some very light precip around here or extremely slight chance...

    Jan 7th - Light Rain
    Jan 10th - Light Snow/Sleet
    Jan 12th - Light Rain

    When I say extremely slight...max precip amounts are around 0.03 to 0.05" of liquid...and most, again, is well east of I-35. We'll see what happens.
    So, unless something changes, no big deal.

  7. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    I am already shuddering at what I'm seeing in terms of record-breaking cold in mid-late January. Have I mentioned I hate cold weather?

  8. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Too early to talk snow chances with this, though we might see a few inches with the system and cold air moving in - in the middle of January. The big headline will be this...


  9. #1134

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Remember to go outside today at 6:12pm and look NW to see the ISS.

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Could have some freezing drizzle around tomorrow morning. Nothing major.

  11. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Overall...the "quietest" year with tornadoes nationally since before 1953. Law of averages...it'll probably be a busy year next year if we look at the trends since 2004.

    Oklahoma was above average this year with 72 tornado and our average is just over 55.


  12. #1137

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Tropical systems and US landfall also is a huge contributer to total tornado counts in the USA. And it is no secret that this year, the tropics were relatively quiet, yet again.



    On to OK. Chances of passing snow showers looks to be slightly on the rise for Thursday into Friday, right now it looks like N/NE OK has the best shot, but some white stuff is worth monitoring.

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    12Z Euro bringing in snow chances north of a line from Woodward - Fairview - Perry - Bartlesville. General 1-2 inches. 12Z GFS covers the north 2 rows of counties from TX to AR with generally 1" or less. Maybe 1-2" when you get into far NE OK near the KS and MO borders.

  14. #1139

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Tropical systems and US landfall also is a huge contributer to total tornado counts in the USA. And it is no secret that this year, the tropics were relatively quiet, yet again.



    On to OK. Chances of passing snow showers looks to be slightly on the rise for Thursday into Friday, right now it looks like N/NE OK has the best shot, but some white stuff is worth monitoring.
    Wasn't the quietness of the tropical season due to a dust plume off of Africa? I have heard that multiple times now.

  15. #1140

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Overall...the "quietest" year with tornadoes nationally since before 1953. Law of averages...it'll probably be a busy year next year if we look at the trends since 2004.

    Oklahoma was above average this year with 72 tornado and our average is just over 55.
    Yet the 2013 season, for the OKC metro, was the worst in history. When you combine the casualties of the May 20th storm and the May 31st storm I believe it was greater than May 3, 1999. The property damage this year blew 1999 out of the park.

    Hopefully 2014 is a bit quieter for the metro.

  16. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    Wasn't the quietness of the tropical season due to a dust plume off of Africa? I have heard that multiple times now.
    It definitely played a role for sure.

  17. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Yet the 2013 season, for the OKC metro, was the worst in history. When you combine the casualties of the May 20th storm and the May 31st storm I believe it was greater than May 3, 1999. The property damage this year blew 1999 out of the park.

    Hopefully 2014 is a bit quieter for the metro.
    It was a significant year here, definitely. If you are worried about just human casualties then yes when you combine them they are obviously going to top May 3rd. However, injuries where much higher in May 3rd than the two events combined as far as I know. Really...we should be saying 3 events. May 19th had an EF-4 tornado that started in Norman and moved into Pott County. They are still part of the metro area the last I checked.

    What will next year bring? Hard to say. Will we have a tornado in the metro area in 2014? More than likely yes. Statistically the OKC metro area sees 8 per year.

  18. #1143

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    It was a significant year here, definitely. If you are worried about just human casualties then yes when you combine them they are obviously going to top May 3rd. However, injuries where much higher in May 3rd than the two events combined as far as I know. Really...we should be saying 3 events. May 19th had an EF-4 tornado that started in Norman and moved into Pott County. They are still part of the metro area the last I checked.

    What will next year bring? Hard to say. Will we have a tornado in the metro area in 2014? More than likely yes. Statistically the OKC metro area sees 8 per year.
    How many tornadoes EF3 and greater does the OKC metro area statistically see per year?

  19. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    How many tornadoes EF3 and greater does the OKC metro area statistically see per year?
    F3/EF3 = 31
    F4/EF4 = 15
    F5/EF5 = 5

    Those numbers include this year (1 EF3, 1 EF4, and 2 EF5s)...so that is 51 strong/violent tornadoes over the last 63 years. Roughly less than one per year on average...but close enough statistically to assume at least 1. I would argue as the metro area's population continues to sprawl out and develop, the number of higher rated tornadoes will go up simply because there is more stuff to chew up.

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