Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan was talking about the possibility of Snow on Friday...
He did indicate that a lot could change with this.

[Dustin]

I'm not excited about snow anymore.

Damn, I've grown up.

[venture]

00Z GFS is locking on to a winter storm now in the Southern Plains late next week. Definitely a "Bread and Milk Watch" event now.

Now GFS is a bit slow with the cold air still, freezing line is up in NW OK by Friday evening. It moves through most of Western OK on Saturday, but doesn't make it through here until Sunday morning. GFS does show a TON of moisture with this next storm. We are talking a band of 2-3" of liquid along and just north of I-44. Most of the heaviest rain is east of I-35 by Friday evening. Then looking at drizzle behind the main batch and then a wrap around band in the Panhandle and NW OK. That fades by late Saturday.

The 12Z ECMWF (can't see the 00Z one yet) has us above freezing until 6AM Friday. If this would verify and the GFS precip amounts would...it would be a pretty notable storm. Even the ECMWF precip amounts though are pretty high...it just depends on the quality of the crystals at that point. ECMWF has an band of 0.75 to 1.5" from SW to NE across Central OK. Standard 10 to 1 snow ratio would make it a pretty tough storm for us.

Should be an interesting one to watch now that GFS is coming along some.

[venture]

Anyone with family in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley should probably check in and make sure they are aware of Sunday's threat. SPC upgraded to a 45% hatched Moderate Risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm motions up to 50 mph are going to make it tough for those areas that don't have the luxury we do down here.

[ouamber]

Hey Venture..have you been able to look at the new 0z Euro maps? I can't get mine to pull up.

[venture]

Hey Venture..have you been able to look at the new 0z Euro maps? I can't get mine to pull up.

Yeah...matching up almost identically with the 00Z GFS right with a NW OK into the TX PH snowfall.

It does have on Friday some areas along and south of I-44 getting around an inch of snow.

[ouamber]

Well Venture, what's your thoughts on the 12z suite? It appears to me the snow is either going to be too far North or too far SW for the majority of OK. However, I haven't seen the Euro yet.

[venture]

Well Venture, what's your thoughts on the 12z suite? It appears to me the snow is either going to be too far North or too far SW for the majority of OK. However, I haven't seen the Euro yet.

Euro finally backed off all the snowfall except for some mixed in stuff on Friday out west. GFS keeps it to the NW part of the state and the panhandles. That seems more logical for this time of year. We just need to keep an eye on it. Things always get a little suspect when they lose any built up consistency, so I would like to see what the Euro does tonight. On the other side of that, GFS is spitting out a similar solutions now 3 times in a row.

[venture]

SPC upgraded to a HIGH RISK for today in Indiana and E IL. If you have family/friends up there...give them a heads up. Real deal today.

[adaniel]

Wow. When was the last time this happened this far north and this late in the year?

[venture]

Wow. When was the last time this happened this far north and this late in the year?

Umm the October 26 2010 High Risk for a derecho. Nov 15 2005 High Risk for a tornado outbreak but hat was Mid-Miss valley. So looking through everything, this is the latest high risk that is so far north. There have been some in Dec/Jan but in the traditional Dixie Alley which has their tornado season during Winter.

[ou48A]

If you have family/friends up there...give them a heads up. Real deal today.

Do this^ ASAP.
This is potentially very serious !!!!!!!!

[Luke]

What are the chances of snow in Grove, OK the week of Thanksgiving? We are coming up from Florida and would LOVE to see some snow.

[ou48A]

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

[venture]

First PDS tornado watch is out for IL, WI, and MO. Here we go...

[venture]

Quick side note, I know everything today has nothing to do with Oklahoma...but its a pretty big day and many of us have family/friends up there. Not to mention posters (Spartan) up in Ohio.

[venture]

All too familiar images coming out of the areas back north...

[catch22]

Ugh

[soonerguru]

Sad. Where is that?

[venture]

Washington, IL. Looks like classic EF-4 damage at least.

[venture]

One for the history books for sure...

[ljbab728]

Of course, all of the news sources will be all over this tomorrow citing global warming as the cause. LOL

[venture]

00Z GFS get us pretty white for Turkey week.

[Luke]

Wow, so there's a chance of snow! WOOHOO!!!

[Anonymous.]

Chance of passing showers Wednesday into Thursday.

Chances go up pretty high Thursday into Friday with Friday looking like a real soaker. Cold air behind Low looks to be too slow to warrant any winter precip in main body of OK. Just a classic cold rain.


Next week is going to really depend on this first Low that comes through later this week. If it pulls down enough cold air and keeps it here, next week could be bread and milk warning worthy. A low comes out of the SW and kind of ramps up as it ejects over TX into OK. Right now I am siding with temps being too warm. But will keep updates coming.

The following week (first week of Dec) looks like a lot of fun, right now.