Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

[venture]

GFS forecast is naturally drier than NAM, again. So we can figure out who is right with this next one.

GFS brings in a wave of snow in the afternoon on Sunday, roughly 1-2" at the most. Second wave, like NAM, is further SE and drops another 1-2 around Ada and McAlester.

[s00nr1]

Well I'd have to say the NAM definitely won round 1. From Tuesday on it was running colder and wetter than the GFS (which said we'd be above freezing for most of today as recently as yesterday morning). So I'd have to lean toward the NAM and the WRF for round 2 as well.

GFS forecast is naturally drier than NAM, again. So we can figure out who is right with this next one.

GFS brings in a wave of snow in the afternoon on Sunday, roughly 1-2" at the most. Second wave, like NAM, is further SE and drops another 1-2 around Ada and McAlester.

[venture]

Well I'd have to say the NAM definitely won round 1. From Tuesday on it was running colder and wetter than the GFS (which said we'd be above freezing for most of today as recently as yesterday morning). So I'd have to lean toward the NAM and the WRF for round 2 as well.

That's how I'm leaning right now. GFS just hasn't proven its worth right now. Was NAM completely right? Not totally...but GFS also said the my oak in the front yard wouldn't be touching the ground right now. LOL

[s00nr1]

Sad thing is we are supposed to go to Dallas for the annual margarita ball tomorrow night but we are probably going to have to call that off as coming back Sunday looks to be an iffy proposition.

[ouamber]

Do you have the new Euro snow maps to show?

[venture]

Do you have the new Euro snow maps to show?

00Z Euro is roughly... 1-2" Central, 2-4" West with a pocked of 4-6" in WC OK.

[ouamber]

Thank you! How about the E side of the state?

[venture]

Thank you! How about the E side of the state?

Euro doesn't have much of anything over there.

I have the NAM, GFS, and WRF displayed here: Weather Spotlight - Winter Weather Model Comparisons These are all 00Z and 12Z images. I'll get another page for the 6Z/18Z runs.

[Anonymous.]

Of course now that the advisories are about to expire, freezing rain and sleet is redeveloping over western half of OK again. Main concentration in NW OK.

[bradh]

Man driving to Dallas on Sunday morning to meet my family from Houston is going to be a fun trip, hope they can keep 35 clean. Are we insane for even keeping this trip scheduled?

[venture]

Winter Wx Adv is where they are going for Sunday into early Monday. The text...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING.


* PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


* SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

[kevinpate]

If ice could just wait until Friday, I'd be much much happier. Still juggling my Thursday, but driving west is a distinct possibility.

If it could all wait til Saturday, I'd be more thrilled. Hometown lads are playing in the 4A finals at Stillwater Friday. I'd like them to
be able to concentrate on the game, not the weather. Plus, everyone getting home safe afterwards would be a big bonus.

[venture]

The new NAM is remaining pretty juiced up. Total precip amounts still have a high number from 0.9" in the SW to around 0.7" here in C OK to 0.6" in EC OK. The good news for the Monday commute is that all of this is forecast to be out of C OK by 7-8PM except for some occasional freezing drizzle or scattered light snow through Monday AM - nothing that will accumulate much of anything.

[s00nr1]

I tell ya, if the NAM verifies even at 50% there will be a lot of busted forecasts tomorrow.

[venture]

I tell ya, if the NAM verifies even at 50% there will be a lot of busted forecasts tomorrow.

Completely agree. It has really stuck to its guns with this. However, I remember last year where GFS was similar and changed 12 hours out and that solution verified. So who knows. I favor consistency though.

12Z NAM snowfall forecast...amounts are a bit more reasonable for C OK, still higher than currently forecast.

[OKCisOK4me]

Roads are completely dry this morning (at least in the NW quadrant of Oklahoma County. I was pleasantly surprised with that since I work Saturday mornings. Got to work 25 minutes early!

[venture]

Amounts around the South Metro/Norman areas are lower on that map and here is why...more sleet forecast for that area (something that may not happen which means higher snow amounts in those areas)...

[venture]

GFS is drier, again. However I like how it is lining up mostly with the alignment of the accumulating snow areas in OK. WRF has a similar feature, but it offsets it about 50-75 miles further north.

[Anonymous.]

Most of TX is under WSWarnings right now with east of DFW into AR under WSWatches.

I am surprised at the writing off of the NAM. Still putting out up to 8 inches of snow in some spots of SW and C OK.


I believe what the general forecasting thinking here is, the low is going to initially be cranking over the southern TX panhandle and into SW OK, then fizzle out as the main low gets cranking and anchors down in TX where it could put a sleet or ice storm over DFW. If this scenario happens, then the forecast right now by (most) mets will be correct.

This is a more unusual case of forecasting a winter storm because not only are we unsure of the track of this low, but how long it will stay healthy and wrapped up before the new low is established to the south.

[venture]

Updated WRF snowfall forecast...

[Anonymous.]

Updated WRF snowfall forecast...

Looks like most forecasts are going off of WRF/GFS combined solution. However as trend is more snow further north, advisories may need to be upgraded tonight.

Precip heading through S TX panhandle right now is actually looking healthy and may make SW OK within in the next few hours.

[Bunty]

In Stillwater, temp already a bit over 40 and and may exceed expected high of 41. Perhaps it will be a bit warmer than wunderground's expected temp of 34 at kickoff time against Baylor. GO POKES! BEAT BAYLOR!

MR. ORANGEPOWER today on Stillwater Weather

[Anonymous.]

FWIW, the GEM puts 4-8 inches of snow over much of OK.

[venture]

12Z Euro snowfall totals...OKC area

3 Hr Precip Totals
9AM: 1-2"
12PM: 1-2"
3PM: 1-2"
6PM: 0"
9PM: ~1"
12AM: 0" - snow done.

[venture]

Winter Wx Adv updated...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
CST MONDAY...


* SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.