Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013

[ou48A]

My son and I got out of the Fair Park area just as that storm came in. I remember the lightning and the thunder encroaching just as the game was over, and we high-tailed it to the car. We drove east out of Dallas and into a rainstorm, but stayed dry ourselves

Same here....
People drive crazy on the interstates in Dallas when it rains .
I might take the Dart red line just so I can avoid driving in the worst of the road conditions if its going to rain.

[Anonymous.]

Saturday still looking like low chance of rain here in C OK. Better chances eastern half of OK.

Next week is looking interesting. A strong low is going to eject out of the lower rockies and bring heavy rain to someone. Right now that someone is N TX and SE OK. Decent amouns over much of state with that system.

[CuatrodeMayo]

Models shying away from rain on Saturday. But bringing the pain heading into next week.

I hope this is supposed to mean "rain". I'm not ready full-on winter yet.

[venture]

00Z GFS is in, so time to take a look ahead. First off...we've been down this road many times and everyone knows my disclaimer. So keep that in mind when looking at the tail end of the forecast.

Precip Chances...

• Today chances of storms along and east of I-35 this afternoon and evening. Marginal risk of a storm getting grumpy, but nothing too crazy.
• Saturday and most of Sunday - Scattered showers and storms, but not a total wash out by any stretch it seems.
• Monday/Tuesday - Heavy rain and storms seem likely. Severe risk increases later in the day, mainly over western Oklahoma. Front pushes through Tuesday AM forcing everything off to the east through the day. Total rainfall for the weekend and Monday/Tuesday, with the vast majority being on Monday, is 1/2 inch west and SW. 1-2" central. 2-4" East.
• Dry through Saturday the 19th.
• Saturday 19th - Chance of storms NW.
• Sunday 20th - Slight chance SW.
• Monday 21st - Chance statewide, maybe a couple strong storms.
• Tuesday-Wednesday - Slight chance far East and SE.
• Dry through Saturday the 28th.

Temps

• Some ups and downs with the chances of precip over the next several days.
• Weds the 16th highs fall into the 50s and 60s...but rebound for a day. By Friday the 18th temps fall again but the big story is the fast growing cold pocket in the Prairie Provinces.
• Low moves through the upper great lakes on the 22nd (Tuesday) and a front comes through here as previously noted on Wednesday. We are seeing temps in the mid 70s SE to upper 40s NW early on Wednesday. 40s and 30s widespread by afternoon.
• Thursday the 24th temps could bring a hard freeze to the northern part of the state, and a light freeze elsewhere. Highs on Thursday are suggested to be in the upper 30s North of I-40 and 40s south.
• Friday - hard freeze statewide (hopefully - BYE BUGS!) Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s most of the state.
• Saturday (26th) - Overnight lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

Side note...I'm not buying the temp forecast since the last few days of the GFS forecast window is very unreliable. However, we need to watch it and see if it starts showing signs of coming true.

[venture]

Front is approaching the OKC area right now. In the near term, storms will continue to develop out well in front of the boundary. Showers and storms are on going over Eastern and South Central Oklahoma right now. Heavy rain and small hail, maybe some gusty winds, are main threats overnight. OKC should be on the edge of any activity tonight, so we may or may not see anything.

[Bunty]

Here is the rainfall map for between tonight and Tuesday:

[Achilleslastand]

When will the rain hit the metro?

[venture]

Here is the rainfall map for between tonight and Tuesday:

For comparison here is GFS:



Timeline has scattered activity begin this afternoon through evening, an gradually increase in coverage overnight.

[venture]

Forecast that likely won't happen, but GFS is mentioning it so I'll throw it out there...

Thursday October 24th
Morning Temp - Mid 40s
Afternoon High - Upper 40s
Light Rain - up to 0.10" of precip, mixing with sleet/snow late

Friday October 25th
Morning Temp - Mid 30s
Afternoon High - Low 40s
Rain/Snow or Wet Snow AM - up to 0.15" precip, < 1" of Snow
Dry PM

[catch22]

Today looks so much like winter outside. Grey, low clouds. Light drizzle/precip. Love this weather!

[venture]

Today looks so much like winter outside. Grey, low clouds. Light drizzle/precip. Love this weather!

Definitely reminds me of home! This is how I remember Fall and Winter...well a bit colder for winter.

[bandnerd]

Of course I scheduled an outdoor photo shoot for our senior class tomorrow.

Of course.

Time to check the calendar for alternate dates...Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for fall to be here. I just need it to be here in the afternoons

[venture]

Storms increasing over West Central Oklahoma. In addition have a line of storms along the cold front dropping SE over NW OK.

Storms to the NW just look like a quick dose of heavy rain and then they should move off quickly.

Storms to the West are moving roughly ENE. They are picking up some strength so heavy rain, small hail, and winds up to about 40-50 mph could be possible with them. They are moving about 28-30 mph to the ENE. Right now that batch should pass between Guthrie and Norman, but the cold front may catch up to them and push the batch off course a bit.

Nothing major, just some noise coming in.

[venture]

Little bit of a bow curve to the storms coming in. So winds could get pretty gusty - radar estimates up to 50-55mph a few thousand feet up. Hail is indicated, but likely just very heavy rain.

[blangtang]

radar pics are giving me flashbacks of that awful storm earlier this year!

[venture]

Update...winds generally 30-40 mph with storms.

[venture]

Storms are now severe...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 145 AM CDT


* AT 104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF LUTHER TO STELLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...STELLA...CHOCTAW...HARRAH...MCLOUD...CHA NDLER...JONES...
NICOMA PARK...MEEKER...WELLSTON...LUTHER...WARWICK...JOHN SON...
SPARKS...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...DALE...BETHEL ACRES AND AYDELOTTE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[Anonymous.]

OKC needs about 7 more inches of liquid precip to beat the wettest ever on record.

[bandnerd]

Maybe we're just special, but I'm pretty sure the winds were worse than 30-40. It was raining sideways, in circles, it was like a damn hurricane! Luckily, it moved through within the half hour so it didn't get a chance to do any major damage.

[Bunty]

OKC needs about 7 more inches of liquid precip to beat the wettest ever on record.

Only a somewhat wetter than normal remainder of the year is needed to do it. Considering how rare it has been for the OKC area to get bypassed by heavy storm systems this year, it will probably happen.

[Anonymous.]

I hope so. It would be cool to have a more "legitimate" wettest record as opposed to our current anomoly.

[venture]

Evening GFS still running on some sites, but will at least tease this.

Friday morning...Northern OK may get the first taste of the white stuff. Not much and likely mixed with rain if it happens at all (it will rain). Seems to be pretty early for us to have these chances show up already. It's beginning to look a like like...okay, I'll stop.

Side note. The new chat room seems to be working out well, so I think we'll stick with it going forward. One thing I've noticed is that during the big days this season, the server has been hit hard and it needs some love. I wanted to share some plans that I have for the site going forward and for those that have expressed interest on how to help, you can find the information there: Weather Spotlight | Weather Information, Live Chat, and Discussions on Weather in the Central US Thanks!

[Plutonic Panda]

Maybe we're just special, but I'm pretty sure the winds were worse than 30-40. It was raining sideways, in circles, it was like a damn hurricane! Luckily, it moved through within the half hour so it didn't get a chance to do any major damage.

Same here in north Edmond. . . I wonder if there were any microburst because it went crazy.

[bchris02]

Evening GFS still running on some sites, but will at least tease this.

Friday morning...Northern OK may get the first taste of the white stuff. Not much and likely mixed with rain if it happens at all (it will rain). Seems to be pretty early for us to have these chances show up already. It's beginning to look a like like...okay, I'll stop.

Side note. The new chat room seems to be working out well, so I think we'll stick with it going forward. One thing I've noticed is that during the big days this season, the server has been hit hard and it needs some love. I wanted to share some plans that I have for the site going forward and for those that have expressed interest on how to help, you can find the information there: Weather Spotlight | Weather Information, Live Chat, and Discussions on Weather in the Central US Thanks!

I bet Mike Morgan would be going ecstatic if there actually was a chance of snow in OKC this early in the year.

[bandnerd]

Same here in north Edmond. . . I wonder if there were any microburst because it went crazy.

I talked to a few people about the storm at work, and they all lived in different areas and they all mentioned the crazy wind.