Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013

[Anonymous.]

They must be bored down there without any tropical systems this season! (Or that could change this weekend)

[Bunty]

Payne mentioned that conditions were looking less favorable for developing tornadoes but potential was still there.

Right. Chances of thunderstorms on Friday have fallen to 50% in OKC, Tulsa and Stillwater from 70%. So perhaps just some scattered intense thunderstorms to develop at worse, rather than this dreaded strong squall line other TV weathermen are fearing about, if they still are, along with this map showing the worst threat area well to the NNE of Oklahoma:

[bandnerd]

Oh, no doubt, probably should have kept the comment to myself. Just that Fri nite HS football games mean lots of people in outdoor stadiums that often have to scramble in a hurry when and if lightning/hail comes around, that's all. Sorry to horn in on the thread.

My comment was heavily laced with sarcasm. They really need a sarcasm font.

As a band kid, walking around with a metal pole (flute) in my hands on a wet field was always a bit nerve-wracking. I wasn't thinking about this Friday being a lightning event, just the rain.

[Achilleslastand]

So after this front rolls thru what are the high/low temps going to be? And I am guessing/hoping that we will be done with the 85 degree temps.

[Bunty]

So after this front rolls thru what are the high/low temps going to be? And I am guessing/hoping that we will be done with the 85 degree temps.

High in OKC on Saturday 64. Sunday morning low 42. Source: National Weather Service of Norman, OK. No rapid warm-up back to the 80s after Sat. is expected.

[Achilleslastand]

High in OKC on Saturday 64. Sunday morning low 42. Source: National Weather Service of Norman, OK. No rapid warm-up back to the 80s after Sat. is expected.

Sweet!
Thanks.........

[jn1780]

Its going to be a long spring if people are over hyping Fridays event.

The question is how long will it take for Venture to go insane with the question "How does this compare to May 20?" lol

[venture]

Its going to be a long spring if people are over hyping Fridays event.

The question is how long will it take for Venture to go insane with the question "How does this compare to May 20?" lol

..............

lol

[Bunty]

Right. Chances of thunderstorms on Friday have fallen to 50% in OKC, Tulsa and Stillwater from 70%. So perhaps just some scattered intense thunderstorms to develop at worse, rather than this dreaded strong squall line other TV weathermen are fearing about, if they still are, along with this map showing the worst threat area well to the NNE of Oklahoma:

But TV weathermen may differ. KFOR's Mike Morgan sets the chance for rain clear up to 90%.

[venture]

Okay...here is the 00Z model review for Friday. Tropics are also going to be in the news, but I'll cover that in the tropics thread.

NAM Discussion

Storms will initiate around 5-7PM from Ponca to Clinton to Hollis. A secondary area of storms could form from OKC SW to Wichita Falls. Looks like South of I-40 will have the higher precip amounts, but really any storm is going to have the chance to dump a lot. Could have additional post frontal rain/storms moving through until 4-5AM. Severe risk is there mainly along and west of I-35/I-44. Overall NAM has slowed similar to what GFS has been trending last several runs.

GFS Discussion

Storms start over far NW OK by 7PM. It doesn't bring storms into OKC until 1AM and out by 7AM. Severe risk is up mainly over the Western 1/3rd of Oklahoma and fades through the evening. General half inch or less of rain for most areas.

[venture]

Slight risk covers much of the areas we were talking about out west.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013


VALID 041200Z - 051200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB...IA...SRN
MN...WI...NWRN MO...ERN KS...NWRN OK...


...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTS A SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAN COMPARED TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NAM MODEL WHICH IS FARTHER E WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER WITH THE
UPPER LOW VALID AT 00Z. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED.


DURING THE DAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WRN KS AND
INTO CNTRL NEB...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM FSD/SUX EWD
ACROSS NRN IA OR SRN MN AND INTO WRN WI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY EPISODES OF RAIN AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY RETURN SLIGHTLY AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.


BY LATE AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
ERN NEB LOW...INTO CNTRL KS...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO IA...AND PERHAPS SRN MN BY EVENING.


...ERN NEB...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY
WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE
FRONT...IT COULD MODULATE ITS LATITUDINAL LOCATION. HEATING WILL
OCCUR S OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE...WITH LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL CONDITIONALLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GFS AND
EURO BOTH HAVE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNALS ACROSS NRN IA...FAR SRN
MN...AND SWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE.


MEANWHILE TO THE SW...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SFC LOW CENTER ACROSS ERN NEB BY 21-00Z. GFS
SHOWS CLASSIC LOADED GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS OVER ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS JUST W OF THE
FRONT AT PEAK HEATING. WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
FORCING...THE AREA FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF THE COLD AIR SURGES
QUICKER THAN FORECAST...A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE COULD RESULT...BUT
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION AND LEWPS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.


A MODERATE RISK COULD BE ISSUED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY
OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES.


...OK...ERN KS...WRN MO...
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HEATING
AND UPPER COOLING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOME A SQUALL LINE. THE STRONG FORCING AS
WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE LINEAR MCS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
AREAS OF LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS MERGE. THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MCS.


..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013

[Anonymous.]

A lot of fuel for heavy storms/rain pushing up over the state.

Hopefully we get a nice soaking. We need to get the ground saturated heading into winter for further wildfire prevention.


EDIT: I like the GFS, it has been pretty consistent. And it is handling Karen well, so far.

[bchris02]

Dixie alley is nothing new. Though their season is longer and places like Birmingham are prone to be hit by tornadoes, I don't think on average they have any time of year that tornadic activity is as frequent and intense as in Oklahoma during the month of May.

[SoonerDave]

But TV weathermen may differ. KFOR's Mike Morgan sets the chance for rain clear up to 90%.

Is he advising people to leave town yet?

...sorry, couldn't resist. ...

[venture]

Slight Risk now includes the OKC metro area for tomorrow. I do have the chat room open now, mainly to help work out any bugs with it since haven't gotten to really test it yet.

...LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FROM
EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN/WESTERN MO INTO OK NEAR THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STEADILY OCCUR
WHILE AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL BASIS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY.

[tomokc]

Is he advising people to leave town yet?

...sorry, couldn't resist. ...

When he tells us to get in our cars and "drive south," let's make sure that he doesn't mean drive south to the OU-Texas game.

[ou48A]

When he tells us to get in our cars and "drive south," let's make sure that he doesn't mean drive south to the OU-Texas game.

He might be because Texas fans are unloading large numbers of tickets for cheap.

It will probably be in the low 50's by the end of the OU -TCU game...
It's good that the sun will be at my back for most of the OU-Texas game because it will probably be hotter than we want after this Saturday.
But there is another system due in about next Thursday or Friday so maybe it will have pushed though Dallas by game time on OCT,12.

[Bunty]

NAM has heaviest rain on Friday falling roughly along the I-44 corridor. Rain up to 2 in.

[SoonerDave]

So now I see the first effects of David "It Tears Me Up" Payne on the Ch 9 weather forecast: We now have weather slides offering a big, bright yellow graphic of the state identifying the "TORNADO ZONE" in big scary letters. And another slide with the words "MAX:TOR" on the top that sound frighteningly like the TORCON BS on The Nausea Channel (oops, I mean The Weather Channel). About the only redeeming thing is that the text accompanying the version of the slide on their website says "The tornado threat is low."

I think I'm gonna go puke on my doppler. If I had one.

[Antler dad]

So now I see the first effects of David "It Tears Me Up" Payne on the Ch 9 weather forecast: We now have weather slides offering a big, bright yellow graphic of the state identifying the "TORNADO ZONE" in big scary letters. And another slide with the words "MAX:TOR" on the top that sound frighteningly like the TORCON BS on The Nausea Channel (oops, I mean The Weather Channel). About the only redeeming thing is that the text accompanying the version of the slide on their website says "The tornado threat is low."

I think I'm gonna go puke on my doppler. If I had one.

Top to bottom, that's good stuff SD!!

[venture]

Slight risk for much of Oklahoma today north and west of I-44 and about 40 miles to the SE of I-44. Main threats today will be hail and wind. Tornado threat is very low...only 2%.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...


THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE /2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS REMNANT EML PLUME
ADVECTS EWD ABOVE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS WARM
SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD
SURGING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE
FORCING...A RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES IS EXPECTED...BUT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
LINE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

[Anonymous.]

The state of Iowa is basically in moderate risk zone.

Still looks like the squall line show late tonight here in C OK.

[ou48A]

Check with your local teams..... but some high school games have apparently had their kick off times moved up.
Smart move... Keeps folks safer.
It's good to see coaches and officials trusting the meteorologist enough these days to make theses adjustments.

[Bunty]

The latest NAM has the heaviest rain shifted to the northwest and west central part of the state:

[Roger S]

I sure would like to see that big red blob in the gulf make a left turn.