Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013

[venture]

Now they're saying a moderate risk for Friday with storms moving in to OKC around 6pm

So that's what happened to my neighbor's bong...

[SomeGuy]

the 3 stations were saying about there being a mod risk, lets just hope it's not true

[ou48A]

KFOR CH 4 (Morgan) has a moderate risk north and west of a line from near Cordell to OKC to near Pawhuska.
Indicates this will be the main tornado threat area from about 4 pm to 7:30pm

[venture]

the 3 stations were saying about there being a mod risk, lets just hope it's not true

It is obvious that TV Station Moderate Risk != SPC Moderate Risk. Hell they don't even have us in a 30% outlook area for Friday right now. I would say definite Slight risk, but GFS and NAM aren't playing together very well right now with it so there is no reason to raise the risk level that high this far out. Except to drive ratings.

Now I will say Fall systems are different Animals than Spring and upper air dynamics with weaker instability can really do some crazy things, but I'm personally not going to get on here and start waving my arms while wearing a bedazzled [insert outfit choice here] calling for a major outbreak.

Chat room will be going for Friday and I might try to get the streaming radar video going again.

[John1744]

Payne mentioned that conditions were looking less favorable for developing tornadoes but potential was still there.

[ou48A]

Nobody is saying anything like this is go to be a out break of tornadoes....
But if there is only one and it hits your house the number of tornadoes makes little difference.
But it sounds like most of them are going to be in western Oklahoma...?

When is the next system due in after Fridays storm?

[bchris02]

I think this site, with our great meteorologists like venture and Anonymous, is a better source than Mike Morgasm or David Payne. The times things were really getting hyped up and scary on here were times we needed to be scared i.e. May 20 and May 31st.

[venture]

Payne mentioned that conditions were looking less favorable for developing tornadoes but potential was still there.

Shocker. Maybe their problem is is that they look at day old models...or they just want to hype.

Nobody is saying anything like this is go to be a out break of tornadoes....
But if there is only one and it hits your house the number of tornadoes makes little difference.
But it sounds like most of them are going to be in western Oklahoma...?

When is the next system due in after Fridays storm?

Let me re-educate on the meaning of a Moderate Risk since our media does a horrible job by bastardizing it.

Source: SPC and its Products

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

So now that we have that cleared up...any questions on why I said what I did earlier? Stupid media going for hype.

[venture]

Some images from the 00Z NAM this evening...

Precip will not start, per NAM, until 00Z or later Friday evening...bulk of precip SE of I-44.



Sig Tor Risk



Supercell Composite

[venture]

Here is SPC's slight risk (for now) for Friday... greatest risk is a 30% hatches area over Iowa, S MN, and SW WI.



...ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. MODELS DIFFER AS TO LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE FASTER
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERRED WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO NWRN
TX...WRN OK AND NERN KS BY 00Z. STRONG FORCING ON THIS FRONT AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION OF
THE FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
WITH EARLY ACTIVITY WHICH COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.

[SoonerDave]

So, right now, statewide Friday night HS football games are an iffy proposition based on the timing of this thing, no? If the stuff rolls in early, no problem, but later, they could be water rides or storm-affected...

alas...

[bandnerd]

So, right now, statewide Friday night HS football games are an iffy proposition based on the timing of this thing, no? If the stuff rolls in early, no problem, but later, they could be water rides or storm-affected...

alas...

Somehow, I think that life will go on.

[Praedura]

Somehow, I think that life will go on.

Stoic.

[Anonymous.]

GFS still slowing down.

This is looking more and more like a late friday night/early saturday morning event with slight straight line wind damage threat at this point.

[venture]

GFS still slowing down.

This is looking more and more like a late friday night/early saturday morning event with slight straight line wind damage threat at this point.

Shhh. You are ruining the hype monsters "moderate" risk wet dreams.

[ou48A]

Ch 9 says about 6PM or 7PM for the NW metro
The main tornado threat will be over SW OK but the dry line would need to hang back for a time... Said the Tornado threat is very low.

[venture]

Here are the 12Z Models. Both are for 00Z on Friday evening...so 7PM. NAM is the top solution which has some precip starting NW of I-44 by 7PM and it picks it up after that. Supercell potential is extremely low however.

GFS is still way out in NW OK for precip. It also has a higher risk of potential for supercells in Western Oklahoma.

The best chances for severe weather are going to be well north near the surface low in NE/IA.

GFS...

[ou48A]

Saturday night's OU game sounds seasonably cold, particularly if your in a windy part of the stadium.

[SoonerDave]

Somehow, I think that life will go on.

Oh, no doubt, probably should have kept the comment to myself. Just that Fri nite HS football games mean lots of people in outdoor stadiums that often have to scramble in a hurry when and if lightning/hail comes around, that's all. Sorry to horn in on the thread.

[ou48A]

Somehow, I think that life will go on.

When I was a kid I knew 2 kids that were killed at a high school football game when they were struck by lighting while standing on the sidelines watching their older brothers play. That was many years ago.... Life went on.
But lighting and high school football still doesn’t mix well.

[Bunty]

OKLAHOMA NOT IN NEW TORNADO ALLEY

Here's a study suggesting that America's tornado alley has shifted to the southeastern states.
More Details on "New Tornado Alley" Moving into Georgia | 11alive.com

[venture]

OKLAHOMA NOT IN NEW TORNADO ALLEY

Here's a study suggesting that America's tornado alley has shifted to the southeastern states.
More Details on "New Tornado Alley" Moving into Georgia | 11alive.com

This is just one of the 27 "New Tornado Alley" articles and "studies" that have come out this year. It ranks right up there with used toilet paper when it comes to worth. :-P

Dixie Alley is nothing new. There are Four "alleys" across the country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixie_Alley

[Anonymous.]

What a strange article. Nothing about it is remotely "official". And a research study that takes into account the "# of deaths"? Yea because that matters how?

[SoonerDave]

What a strange article. Nothing about it is remotely "official". And a research study that takes into account the "# of deaths"? Yea because that matters how?

That's happening more and more, Anon...."research" that's anything but. Conclusions about cause and effect drawn out of thin air because of who wrote the check, or whatever agenda is being pushed. Alas..

[venture]

What a strange article. Nothing about it is remotely "official". And a research study that takes into account the "# of deaths"? Yea because that matters how?

It looks like the research was done by a meteorologist employed by the news station. That should have been the first thing to not pass the smell test. Not to mention that the data and report aren't included in the report to evaluate. SPC has the data for all to see when it comes to trends. If anything, the Super Outbreak of 2011 is being utilized by local media down in the SE to skew these "studies" their way. There was a comment in the story that it could help get additional federal aid sent there way...so we know what the motivator is.