Oklahoma Weather Discussion - August 2013

[venture]

Per mesonet data...

Norman annual average 37.39". With last nights rainfall that puts us at 36.63" for the year to date. The wettest since 2007 when 56.09" was received.

Official reporting site for OKC at WRWA had 43.47" as of last night which compares to an average of 35.85. Based on averages we still have another 11-12 inches to go for the year which would take us to 55.09". All time record is 56.95" so the way it looks right now, unless we dry out completely, we'll probably break that.

[OKCRT]

Just wondering if you have the numbers for the Canton lake area? Was hoping that they would start getting back to normal rains but I think they are still way below average.

[soonerguru]

OKC is up to like 45 inches this year.

[venture]

Just wondering if you have the numbers for the Canton lake area? Was hoping that they would start getting back to normal rains but I think they are still way below average.

They've only gained maybe a percentage point up to 22% full.


Seiling is the nearest mesonet station that is within the watershed area for Canton, as far as I know, and they are only 3 inches away from Normal. So they are seeing a lot of rain, it just isn't making it to the lake.

[venture]

OKC is up to like 45 inches this year.

See two posts above yours.

[Dubya61]

All time record is 56.95" so the way it looks right now, unless we dry out completely, we'll probably break that.

and all that with no Tropical Storm activity (so far).

[Of Sound Mind]

Rotation in these situations can be a few things. 1) Potential for hail to start ramping up, 2) Wind increase in strength in a very localized area, and 3) a quick weak spin up.

If a tornado would happen in this, it would be a weak one and very quick. The wind damage would likely be more widespread and cover things up a bit more. It has come back down some, but still showing winds up to 65 mph.

Take this for what it's worth...

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans/posts/642902569062507

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)


Went through and analyzed some radar data from last night's tornado. It formed at 12:08am and hit the Love's truck stop at I-35/NW 122nd street at 12:09. Then moved ENE across the bridge and to the turnpike before dissipating at 12:11am. So it basically lasted about 4 minutes. It was weak with a max wind speed of around 100 mph when it moved to the east side of the interstate. EF1 category. These types of embedded tornadoes are hard to warn on from the National Weather Service because they are so small and short-lived and sometimes fall within the 4-6 minute low elevation updates from the NEXRAD. It's not the typical tornado that forms from a supercell storm. However, the TDWR provides 60 second updates and they are easier to spot with that faster scan rate and higher native resolution.

You really have to watch Doppler radar trends second by second at the lowest tilts to catch them. Which is where the TV guys come into play. Those with a live radar that scans the lowest elevation every 10-20 seconds can watch it happen in near real-time (assuming they look at velocity) and tell you as long as they pay attention. Most however do not, as was the case last night. Your loss when that occurs. That's a shame too as that's where you can make a difference. The good news is that these are often weak. The bad news is that they are not always close enough to the radar to be detected, so they do occur quite often, they're just never captured because it's a low level phenomenon that the radar can't see when more than 30 miles away.

[venture]

While the radar presentation was definitely very impressive that a tornado was definitely possible last night, I haven't seen anything from NWS Norman to support Tuttle's claim. The radar signature definitely highlighted decently tight rotation, but confirming anything actually touched down will be tough with severe winds also likely occurring at the same time.

Everyone knows where I stand on Tuttle, so I'll wait for the NWS survey.

[bchris02]

Why wasn't a tornado warning issued?

[Plutonic Panda]

This will put the central OK region about 4 inches away from the wettest ever.

Just imagine what the year total is going to be if we are adding this much in August... (just kidding, winter will probably be dry as a bone, lol)

DON'T SAY THAT!!!!!!! I WANT A COLD SNOWY WINTER!! lol ;P

[venture]

Blog post and collection of radar images from last night's feature that developed in NE OKC: August 8th/9th (early AM) OKC Severe Weather | Weather Spotlight

[OkieHornet]

saw sarah libby on the channel 4 morning show today (sunday). didn't know she was back on air.

[venture]

Slight Risk tomorrow, for right now just northern 2 tiers of counties officially.

...KS INTO NRN OK...
HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS...AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR NRN OK MON MORNING...SUPPORTED BY AN EARLY SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET BUT LIKELY DWINDLING DURING THE LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE
DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR S AND W OF THE OUTFLOW...WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM WRN/SRN KS INTO NRN/ERN OK. MODEST LOW
TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG A CORRIDOR NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

[Bunty]

At least one lake out of the drought zone, which supplies municipal drinking water, has NOT risen to a comfortable level. An example is Lone Chimney Lake, located between Pawnee and Stillwater. That lake seems to have gotten bypassed from the rains worse than Stillwater. Below is a video about it, plus a link to printed news story:

Lone Chimney Lake remains dangerously low » Local News » Stillwater NewsPress

[Anonymous.]

Storms and showers maturing in SW OK and NW TX.

This is the beginning of a off/on wet week.

[Anonymous.]

Showers died just before reaching metro last night.

Daytime heating today will aid in the front bubbling up over much of OK today. Random storms likely this afternoon.

[kelroy55]

Unfortunately I lost several boxes of stuff with that last rain up there. Who would have thought my old house would have flooded 3 times in less than 3 months in the middle of summer in Oklahoma. Crazy weather and my friends in SE Kansas and SW Missouri are getting it worse and it's raining up there again. It's just been hot and dry here and I'm not complaining one bit.

[Anonymous.]

Here is precipitation estimates for this week:


This image will refresh.


Flood watches issued for northeastern 1/3 of OK. Does not include OKC metro at this time.

[Bunty]

Showers died just before reaching metro last night.

Daytime heating today will aid in the front bubbling up over much of OK today. Random storms likely this afternoon.

Flash flood watch out for most of the northeast half of Oklahoma until 1am Wednesday. Among major cities it has Tulsa, Stillwater and Enid. But not Oklahoma City.

[Anonymous.]

Storms firing with heating north of Clinton and all over TX pandhandle. Should eventually evolve into large MCS tonight and sweep across state.


No anticipation of a watch, but that storm north of Clinton is mighty stout at the moment.

[Anonymous.]

Warning now out on the Clinton storm.

Also the FloodWatch has been extended south to include the OKC metro.

[Anonymous.]

Weak rotation coming up on the Clinton storm as it is taking a supercell structure.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR
NRN TX


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


VALID 122100Z - 122300Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT


SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SVR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND EVENING HOURS.


DISCUSSION...SFC OBS INDICATE A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR WWD INTO SERN OK THAT ALSO ARCS NWWD INTO
NWRN OK. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND ATTENDANT STRONGER/MORE
WIDESPREAD COLD POOL ORGANIZATION -- ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE NOTABLE SWD/SEWD MOTION OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR...WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY NWWD INTO NWRN OK.


THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S
OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S
AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SVR WIND/HAIL ON A SPORADIC BASIS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD EXIST INVOF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SEGMENT OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL OK INTO NWRN
OK...WHERE CONVECTION MAY HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY
THE BOUNDARY.


HOWEVER...AREA VWP DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHERE
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY PRECLUDE
SUSTENANCE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF FAVORABLY
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AMIDST ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LARGELY
MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.


..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

[venture]

Here is the severe storm out to the west. Movement SE at 15-20 mph. Track is on the main hail core/inflow area of the storm.

[venture]

Outflow boundary passing through Norman now and extends SW towards the area between Lindsay and Alex. It should run into the storm near Chickasha here in the next 15-20 minutes. This is the storm that produced 1" hail over Fort Cobb Lake is weakening right now but maybe we'll get something out of it..