Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2013

[venture]

Brief tornado touched down in Snyder about 2 hours ago and caused minor damage.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092238Z - 092345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OVER SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THE RISK
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OK INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WEST OF CDS INTO CENTRAL OK. LIMITED HEATING HAS
OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF OK/TX WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER DONLEY/BRISCOE/FLOYD COUNTIES TX.
THIS REGION ALSO APPEARS TO BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS TX. OTHER WEAKER STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER
TILLMAN/COMANCHE/CADDO COUNTIES OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WATCH ISSUANCE IF TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND/OR WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING.

..HART/BROYLES.. 05/09/2013

[venture]

Line of storms in Caddo Co are now severe. Line out of the TX PH is also turning severe now with large hail.

[Bunty]

Looks like storms near OKC are for the most part having trouble moving northeast without drying up.

[venture]

Nice little storm developing over Norman right now. Good heavy rain and lightning. Maybe it'll sit here all night for some good sleeping weather.

[venture]

Quick look ahead...

Sat May 11 - Slight chance Northern OK. Some storms.
Sun May 12 - Slight chance Northern OK. Some storms.
Tue May 14 - Slight chance SW and SC OK. Some storms. Marginal severe.
Wed May 15 - Chance entire state (starting over night from south to north). Severe W OK.
Thur May 16 - Chance SE OK. Marginal severe.
Fri May 17 - Slight Chance S and W OK. Severe possible.
Sat May 18 - Chance W and C early. Severe possible.
Sun May 19 - Chance C and E late. Severe possible.
Mon May 20 - Chance C and E, moving east during the day. Severe possible.
Fri May 24 into Sat May 25 - Complex from the NW moving SE through the night. Severe possible.

So next week looks pretty tame, by Oklahoma spring standards. Next weekend though looks like it could be pretty rough, and the weekend after that.

[venture]

Could see some hailers to the NW today until dusk. Severe weather starts to ramp up through the week, especially starting this Friday.

...NWRN OK/NERN TX PNHDL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500 J/KG INVOF THE
MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES AND THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
PRONOUNCED VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO STORM DISSIPATION LATE THIS EVENING.

[ou48A]

The WX Channel has a Torcon index of 4 for SW Oklahoma on Wednesday.

[ou48A]

The WX Channel has given OKC 3 out of 10 on its Torcon index on Wednesday

[venture]

I put up the storm outlook graphics up on the blog through the 25th. Things are going to change with the various model runs, but this is an overview of what we are looking at now. Main take aways - Severe weather threat going up, possibly several days coming up, not every day will produce more than an isolated storm with capping being an issue many days.

Link: Extended Storm Outlook 5/12 | Weather Spotlight

Peak at Wednesday's Outlook

[venture]

SPC has highlight Saturday already for a chance of widespread severe weather with all modes of weather possible.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
5-18/. WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5. THUS...FOCUS THIS
FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
-- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

[SomeGuy]

I was looking at the temperatures for this weekend and wow, Looks like summer is coming early with highs in the 90's

[SoonerDave]

The WX Channel has given OKC 3 out of 10 on its Torcon index on Wednesday

I don't know about anyone else, but I have absolutely no use for the idiocy behind the "TORCON" nonsense on TWC. Its all part of the hype machine that has turned me off the Weather Channel permanently. TWC died after they forced out its founder, John Coleman, who used to do the weather for ABC/Good Morning America back in the 70's. TWC in my opinion is nothing but a shill for hysterics in the Morgasm/Timmer vein. I may be wrong, but I think he was forced out because he fought the nonsense that took over TWC.

Back in its infancy, TWC was great for weather junkies like me, because they talked weather. They had crude, character-cell local forecasts, and offered sensible short- and medium-term forecasts. Then the advertising junkies took over and started producing original programming and cranked up the hype machine. Very, very frustrating.

[SoonerDave]

Alright, Venture, I keep hearing about severe stuff for Friday...I'm planning to go to the movies Friday night, so do I need to expect my car to turn into a dimpled pile of hail-wrecked garbage when I exit the theater??

[jn1780]

I don't know about anyone else, but I have absolutely no use for the idiocy behind the "TORCON" nonsense on TWC. Its all part of the hype machine that has turned me off the Weather Channel permanently. TWC died after they forced out its founder, John Coleman, who used to do the weather for ABC/Good Morning America back in the 70's. TWC in my opinion is nothing but a shill for hysterics in the Morgasm/Timmer vein. I may be wrong, but I think he was forced out because he fought the nonsense that took over TWC.

Back in its infancy, TWC was great for weather junkies like me, because they talked weather. They had crude, character-cell local forecasts, and offered sensible short- and medium-term forecasts. Then the advertising junkies took over and started producing original programming and cranked up the hype machine. Very, very frustrating.

Agreed, I cringe everytime someone brings up the TORCON on this thread.

In other news Morgan has given Saturday an ORANGE tie risk for Saturday with a possible upgrade RED tie risk. Not really, but the sad thing is it sounds like something he would do.

[venture]

Alright, Venture, I keep hearing about severe stuff for Friday...I'm planning to go to the movies Friday night, so do I need to expect my car to turn into a dimpled pile of hail-wrecked garbage when I exit the theater??

I'll do a complete update this afternoon after all the morning runs are done. I linked yesterday my blog post on my "outlook" areas for the upcoming weekish here: Extended Storm Outlook 5/12 | Weather Spotlight Didn't see anything that drastically changed that overnight, so will fine tune and get more detailed later today.

[Anonymous.]

My house randomly got a rain shower last night in N OKC.


This looks like a fun week.

[Bunty]

I don't know about anyone else, but I have absolutely no use for the idiocy behind the "TORCON" nonsense on TWC. Its all part of the hype machine that has turned me off the Weather Channel permanently. TWC died after they forced out its founder, John Coleman, who used to do the weather for ABC/Good Morning America back in the 70's. TWC in my opinion is nothing but a shill for hysterics in the Morgasm/Timmer vein. I may be wrong, but I think he was forced out because he fought the nonsense that took over TWC.

Back in its infancy, TWC was great for weather junkies like me, because they talked weather. They had crude, character-cell local forecasts, and offered sensible short- and medium-term forecasts. Then the advertising junkies took over and started producing original programming and cranked up the hype machine. Very, very frustrating.

No wonder many people didn't like it when TWC bought wunderground. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/us...ange.html?_r=0

[SoonerDave]

No wonder many people didn't like it when TWC bought wunderground. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/us...ange.html?_r=0

There's little better example of where our system has gone sideways. Free enterprise and open markets used to foster great ideas and great products that benefited society and investors; now it is used to coerce, stifle, and destroy.

Who knows, Venture, maybe TWC will come into this thread someday and buy you out, and replace all the graphics with a picture of someone screaming in terror as they run to a fraidy hole to the looming voice of someone from TWC booming "YOU'RE....GOING....TO....DIE....LIVE on TWC at 9PM/8 CENTRAL"...

Grrrr.

Okay, okay, I'm done.

[ou48A]

I don't know about anyone else, but I have absolutely no use for the idiocy behind the "TORCON" nonsense on TWC. Its all part of the hype machine that has turned me off the Weather Channel permanently. TWC died after they forced out its founder, John Coleman, who used to do the weather for ABC/Good Morning America back in the 70's. TWC in my opinion is nothing but a shill for hysterics in the Morgasm/Timmer vein. I may be wrong, but I think he was forced out because he fought the nonsense that took over TWC.

Back in its infancy, TWC was great for weather junkies like me, because they talked weather. They had crude, character-cell local forecasts, and offered sensible short- and medium-term forecasts. Then the advertising junkies took over and started producing original programming and cranked up the hype machine. Very, very frustrating.

The WX channels Torcon index doesn’t bother me in the least. I haven’t seen anything else like it and it’s good for discussion. Most people are not as WX savvy as those posting on this thread. The Trorcon index is a way to convey the degree of possible tornado activity put in a way that most people can quickly understand and to that extent is serves a very useful purpose.

The hype that surrounds weather coverage normally doesn’t bother me because as private enterprises they are in the business of making money and justifying their employment. To a certain extent it’s a viewer’s responsibility to listen with an intelligence ear to be able to separate the hype from the factual reporting…. Sometimes it takes the hype to motive an appropriate response from some people.

[SoonerDave]

The WX channels Torcon index doesn’t bother me in the least. I haven’t seen anything else like it and it’s good for discussion. Most people are not as WX savvy as those posting on this thread. The Trorcon index is a way to convey the degree of possible tornado activity put in a way that most people can quickly understand and to that extent is serves a very useful purpose.

The hype that surrounds weather coverage normally doesn’t bother me because as private enterprises they are in the business of making money and justifying their employment. To a certain extent it’s a viewer’s responsibility to listen with an intelligence ear to be able to separate the hype from the factual reporting…. Sometimes it takes the hype to motive an appropriate response from some people.

Respect your opinion, ou48a, but I don't see how putting something as inflammatory as a "TORCON INDEX" in big capital letters is any more informative than a simple long-range forecast that says "There's a chance for severe weather on Wednesday." There's no requirement for any specific meteorological education in the latter.

How does the number serve any useful purpose when distinguishing between a "TORCON" of 3 and a "TORCON" of 4? Based on what I've read, it's not based on hard computations or atmospheric measurables. Its a very loose number based on how a particular forecaster reads the data, with at least some tie to 50-mile probabilities as laid out by SPC. So all TWC needs to do to stir the pot is to let Dr. Forbes know the TORCON needs to be interpreted as liberally as possible on a given day.

I'm as big a private enterprise guy as you're going to find, but allowing that notion alone to serve as a rationale for what is the meteorological equivalent of yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater is going waay over the line. I have very little patience for the use of technical education as a means to scare people, and IMHO that's the primary purpose of TWC's TORCON business. Just my opinion.

[ou48A]

Respect your opinion, ou48a, but I don't see how putting something as inflammatory as a "TORCON INDEX" in big capital letters is any more informative than a simple long-range forecast that says "There's a chance for severe weather on Wednesday." There's no requirement for any specific meteorological education in the latter.

How does the number serve any useful purpose when distinguishing between a "TORCON" of 3 and a "TORCON" of 4? Based on what I've read, it's not based on hard computations or atmospheric measurables. Its a very loose number based on how a particular forecaster reads the data, with at least some tie to 50-mile probabilities as laid out by SPC. So all TWC needs to do to stir the pot is to let Dr. Forbes know the TORCON needs to be interpreted as liberally as possible on a given day.

I'm as big a private enterprise guy as you're going to find, but allowing that notion alone to serve as a rationale for what is the meteorological equivalent of yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater is going waay over the line. I have very little patience for the use of technical education as a means to scare people, and IMHO that's the primary purpose of TWC's TORCON business. Just my opinion.

Putting the TORCON INDEX in big capital letters is part of the hype that people like us should be able to dismiss as hype... We have got to remember that most people only give the WX a quick glance and that they are dealing with people around the nation who are not nearly as educated about tornadoes and their threats as most people here in Oklahoma.

I would agree that MET’s have an obligation not to yell fire when there is no threat…. But in this case I don’t think that’s what we are talking about…. There is a sector of the population a work or in a public setting that may not be able to hear the TV audio, but they can see the map. I view it as another tool to reach low WX information people who are on the go…. Serious minded WX people don’t spend too much time watching the WX channel.

[ou48A]

KWTV 9 MET Armstrong indicated on his noon TV forecast that Saturday could be a big day with Tornadoes.

[SoonerDave]

Putting the TORCON INDEX in big capital letters is part of the hype that people like us should be able to dismiss as hype... We have got to remember that most people only give the WX a quick glance and that they are dealing with people around the nation who are not nearly as educated about tornadoes and their threats as most people here in Oklahoma.

I would agree that MET’s have an obligation not to yell fire when there is no threat…. But in this case I don’t think that’s what we are talking about…. There is a sector of the population a work or in a public setting that may not be able to hear the TV audio, but they can see the map. I view it as another tool to reach low WX information people who are on the go…. Serious minded WX people don’t spend too much time watching the WX channel.

It is my contention that the presence of "TORCON" (a contrivance) is designed to evoke a fearful reaction, not to inform.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one, ou48A. I wish the TORCON nonsense were as nobly minded as you suggest, but I simply don't think it is. The idea is to create anxiety and drive viewers, plain and simple. A simple colored or hatched map could do precisely what you suggest for those "on the go" and/or "lower-information" folks. Slapping the "TORCON" label slaps an unnecessarily inflammatory quality to it.

To each his own.

[bchris02]

KWTV 9 MET Armstrong indicated on his noon TV forecast that Saturday could be a big day with Tornadoes.

Isn't it too early to say for sure? Nonetheless I may make plans to leave Oklahoma next weekend.