Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2013

[venture]

It looks like the high has been bumped down to 39 for tomorrow. It's hard to believe its May 2nd and we are having colder temperatures than we had through most of December. Winter is still in full swing in Oklahoma. I probably won't plant until at least May 15th.

Is there an explanation for this exceptionally late spring? This is the kind of stuff that usually happens in the high elevations of the Rockies this time of year but winter is usually long gone by now.

Eh, nothing out of the ordinary weather pattern wise. ENSO is essentially neutral so no El Nino or La Nina in effect this year. All in all I chalk it up to Mother Nature getting things back in balance after a few hot and dry years.

I didn't grow up, being from the Great Lakes, so this is just a typical Spring to me. 80s one day, snow the next. If it kills off the bugs and keeps Summer cool, and the grass green (with free water) then I'm all for it.

[Plutonic Panda]

It looks like the high has been bumped down to 39 for tomorrow. It's hard to believe its May 2nd and we are having colder temperatures than we had through most of December. Winter is still in full swing in Oklahoma. I probably won't plant until at least May 15th.

Is there an explanation for this exceptionally late spring? This is the kind of stuff that usually happens in the high elevations of the Rockies this time of year but winter is usually long gone by now.

Did winter ever arrive? lol It seems like it just sort of passed through and we were all bitching about not having snowstorms and blizzards and then winter was like, "Oh yeah, I forgot about you guys in Oklahoma, sorry about that, well here you go!!!!" lol

[Anonymous.]

So cool to see those retrograding cells East of I-35.

[Bunty]

While not a lot happening in OKC, here is a look at this cell well to the east of I-35 and to the east of Stillwater. It's one of several lined up.

WEATHER STATEMENT about this storm:

At 644 pm cdt...strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from 3 miles southeast of yale to 3 miles southeast of avery...moving north at 10 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...Wind gusts to 40 mph...

[bchris02]

Eh, nothing out of the ordinary weather pattern wise. ENSO is essentially neutral so no El Nino or La Nina in effect this year. All in all I chalk it up to Mother Nature getting things back in balance after a few hot and dry years.

I didn't grow up, being from the Great Lakes, so this is just a typical Spring to me. 80s one day, snow the next. If it kills off the bugs and keeps Summer cool, and the grass green (with free water) then I'm all for it.

Do you think we'll be looking at another freeze with the storm next week or is this it?

I remember last week nobody was predicting this one would be as strong as its ended up being. Cool days with highs in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s is pretty normal for a May cold front, but fronts like this with highs in the 30s and lows below freezing is unbelievable.

[boscorama]

Did winter ever arrive? lol It seems like it just sort of passed through and we were all bitching about not having snowstorms and blizzards and then winter was like, "Oh yeah, I forgot about you guys in Oklahoma, sorry about that, well here you go!!!!" lol

My gripe: Does summer never end? Thank goodness for this cold front; may we have many more.

[ShiroiHikari]

I'm cool with this. Pun intended.

[Anonymous.]

Batch of showers in SW OK will ride up into C OK today... Spotty - so consider yourself lucky if your house gets a downpour.

[Plutonic Panda]

My gripe: Does summer never end? Thank goodness for this cold front; may we have many more.

Well that's true too, but I can tolerate 100+ temps for extended periods of time. Now, I love me a good cold winter and some blizzards, but I would prefer summer more.

[ou48A]

There are freeze warnings out for as far south as I-20 in the Cisco Texas area.
This will be an historic WX event.

[venture]

There are freeze warnings out for as far south as I-20 in the Cisco Texas area.
This will be an historic WX event.

Blizzard of 78 was a historic event. People in the southern plains getting down to 30 tomorrow morning will be a distant memory by the weekend. :-P

On the less dramatic side of the weather. Line of showers moving through right now. Nothing else showing up behind it. Some higher reflectivity values over portions of the line could indicate some sleet mixing in. So don't be shocked. So far all mPING reports over the area are showing plain ol' rain.

HCA image from radar showing precip type is mostly all rain out there.

KTLX ? Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm (Precip Type) | Weather Spotlight

[ou48A]

Blizzard of 78 was a historic event. People in the southern plains getting down to 30 tomorrow morning will be a distant memory by the weekend. :-P

I disagree.
If we see a freeze it will adversely impact many rural and small town people on the southern plains.

After the recent warm days this will kill a lot of wheat, some cotton, and other susceptible crops that the above people depend on for a large part of their economies… in those areas it will be remembered by many people for life…. But in the big city’s most will forget fairly soon.

[venture]

I disagree.
If we see a freeze it will adversely impact many rural and small town people on the southern plains.

After the recent warm days this will kill a lot of wheat, some cotton, and other susceptible crops that the above people depend on for a large part of their economies… in those areas it will be remembered by many people for life…. But in the big city’s most will forget fairly soon.

If you look at many of the forecast lows, even in the freeze warning you are looking at temps getting down to 30-31 degrees. That is not a hard freeze by any standard. Top soil temps, with no vegetation, are in the upper 40s to mid 50s right now...with vegetation the temps are warmer than that. More than likely things will not be apocalyptic as you are insinuating. The drought, from everything I've read and people I've spoken to (including the farmer that works my family's land), is the bigger impact and not the freezing temps. Yes they've impacted some areas, but the bigger hit is from the drought.

The bigger effect that we'll probably see is the delay in corn and soybeans getting planted due to the wheat crop sitting longer in the fields. Which is going to start impacting food prices again.

[ou48A]

If you look at many of the forecast lows, even in the freeze warning you are looking at temps getting down to 30-31 degrees. That is not a hard freeze by any standard. Top soil temps, with no vegetation, are in the upper 40s to mid 50s right now...with vegetation the temps are warmer than that. More than likely things will not be apocalyptic as you are insinuating. The drought, from everything I've read and people I've spoken to (including the farmer that works my family's land), is the bigger impact and not the freezing temps. Yes they've impacted some areas, but the bigger hit is from the drought.

The bigger effect that we'll probably see is the delay in corn and soybeans getting planted due to the wheat crop sitting longer in the fields. Which is going to start impacting food prices again.

Depending on the stage of development wheat and cotton at any stage cannot live though even a very mild freeze. Much of the wheat in Oklahoma and in much of Texas is in a stage that it would be damaged. It would be less developed as you move to the north and northwest.

Wheat and cotton are big cash crops in Ok & TX. Hopefully it won’t get quite as cold as the forecast but the TV Mets seem pretty confident that it will. It is early enough that another crop could be planted.
It’s already 37 in Kingfisher.

[venture]

If we look at the morning model runs, they definitely aren't as dire. With it already being 37 out really means nothing. Dewpoints are really well set in the low to mid 30s and the air temp can't fall below that. I'm sure they will drop a couple degrees through the evening though.

Ground temps are well into the 40s and mid 50s in the first couple of inches of the soil, well into the 60s further down. So the radiant heat should help a little there. Remember, weather observations for air temperature are measured at 2 meters above the surface.

GFS high the highest potential for a freeze over Central and Northern OK where temps will be in the low to mid 30s the longest. It keeps temps over Western OK in the mid to upper 30s. NAM is a bit more aggressive with temps. Around 30 in NC OK starting around 1AM. It has temps cool into the upper 20s west of a line from Tulsa to Ada to Ardmore between 4AM and 7AM and into 50s by 10AM. MOS guidance keeps any freezing temps into extreme NW OK and the panhandle.

So NAM is worst case, but the overall guidance isn't sounding the alarms yet for a massive hard freeze. Winds should also stay about 10-15 mph through the night which will keep things from getting too cold. That's just my take on it, but I'm not a hype machine that is trying to get TV ratings either.

[ou48A]

Freeze Warnings have now been issued for as far south as I-10 in the Junction TX area.

[bchris02]

Venture79, looking ahead to next Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorms are predicted. What is that looking like as of now as far as severe/tornado potential?

[venture]

Venture79, looking ahead to next Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorms are predicted. What is that looking like as of now as far as severe/tornado potential?

Severe potential is definitely there. I'll do an update after the 12Z models run later this afternoon.

As far as the overhyped Freeze-o'geddon, as expected it was avoided in most areas. Temps will start increasing now as the sun rises. A few isolated areas did drop below freezing, but a widespread freeze did not take place last night. Most areas stayed above freezing, well above in a several cases. OKC will not break/tie its record of latest freeze being May 3rd as temps are still in the mid to upper 30s in Oklahoma County unless things quickly bottom out here.

[ou48A]

No deep freeze is great news and I’m very happy that it did not materialize as the forecasters predicted.
However we did have a fairly heavy frost on elevated surfaces at my house.
I hope this is the last of the winter WX in our area.

[venture]

No deep freeze is great news and I’m very happy that it did not materialize as the forecasters predicted.
However we did have a fairly heavy frost on elevated surfaces at my house.
I hope this is the last of the winter WX in our area.

There was never a deep freeze, or hard freeze, forecast for Oklahoma and much of Texas - in the Western Panhandle there was. You need temps down into the mid 20s for around 6 hours for that to happen. Every forecast, at least on the weather service end, kept temps much closer to 30 or even just above freezing.

Granted I didn't watch any TV weather yesterday so maybe they were blowing the hype alarms as usual, but there isn't any room for that nonsense here.

[Plutonic Panda]

Now, I'm ready for 100+ temps over this crap. I hate cold weather in the spring and summer. My plants hate it even more

[ou48A]

but there isn't any room for that nonsense here.

LOL really!





LOL

[Plutonic Panda]

Yeah that did seem a bit harsh Venture lol. . . I'm sure he didn't mean anything by it though haha

[Plutonic Panda]

Hey, btw is this the last of winter or could we see more next week?

[venture]

Yeah that did seem a bit harsh Venture lol. . . I'm sure he didn't mean anything by it though haha

It was more so the overall theme of these threads for the years we've been doing them. We've always just presented what's out there and stayed away from hysterics. If a major event started to unfold, you notice the comments get a little more intense. When that happens people tend to start taking notice to the comments that Anon, myself and others make.

Now, I'm ready for 100+ temps over this crap. I hate cold weather in the spring and summer. My plants hate it even more

Bah. I'll be happy with just mid 70s low 80s for the rest of the year. You can move to Arizona if you want 100s. LOL