Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion 2013

[venture]

I am more than a little surprised that OKC doesn't have at least one flight on US Airways to one of their eastern hubs, either Philly or Charlotte or DCA.

Of course, I'd still like JetBlue to give us a chance.

I think we all expected to see CLT added when US and HP merged. However, they just picked up and left. I believe we will see CLT service added after the AA merger is done. DCA I hope. We might still get DCA on WN, but I'm not holding my breath. WN is likely to come out the winner with the slot divestiture that will need to happen from US/AA.

[HangryHippo]

Venture, what are the chances OKC lands any service to Canada? One would think that with all the oil and gas stuff, there'd be at least a little demand for such service, but I guess not.

[venture]

Venture, what are the chances OKC lands any service to Canada? One would think that with all the oil and gas stuff, there'd be at least a little demand for such service, but I guess not.

0.01%...wait...0.02%.

Canada you have two options really. Air Cananda or WestJet. AC operated from DFW to YYZ (Toronto) only. From IAH they fly to YYC (Calgary), YUL (Montreal), YYZ, and YEG (Edmonton). They don't fly from any second tier cities like AUS, SAT, and such in Texas. They do fly from MCI to YYZ - but not mainline.

WestJet only flies to Dallas in the area and they just started a week ago.

I wouldn't really expect to see anything unless demand is so high that it would warrant a nonstop flight.

[ljbab728]

As mentioned previously

AirTran brings Atlanta nonstop flights to Oklahoma City | News OK

[catch22]

They've been installing new bench chairs in all of the gate lounges. They feature power ports under every seat. Noticed a few of them this morning. They look exactly the same as the old ones but with the power ports on the bottom.

[HangryHippo]

So, what is the short term future for Will Rogers in terms of service? Can we expect new destinations or are we looking at destinations already served but with better frequency and/or bigger jets?

[venture]

So, what is the short term future for Will Rogers in terms of service? Can we expect new destinations or are we looking at destinations already served but with better frequency and/or bigger jets?

Always hard to figure out where the industry will go.

Delta I think remains pretty flat. We'll have to see how they react to WN going into ATL from here now, though I'm not expecting much. The MEM route is being axed which takes them down to ATL, DTW, MSP, and SLC. Would like to see them add LGA, but they've shown no interest from what I've heard. Aircraft sizes should remain mostly the same.

United has been doing well to CLE, so we might see an additional flight there at some point if the O&D keeps up. I think ORD, IAH, LAX, and DEN all stays pretty stagnant.

Frontier is a wild card. They are moving to a ULCC model which could bring changes to the OKC market. They might go back to only 1 daily flight or just cut it all together. We'll see how it goes. They aren't turning completely into Spirit, so we'll have to see how the market reacts.

Southwest we've covered quite a bit. MCI gone, ATL added. At some point the 717s will get replaced by the 737s. Hopefully we see MCO return next year. I would like to see STL go back to 2 daily flights in the Spring. I'm still holding out hope we will see at least one BNA flight, but ATL may temper that. The DAL service is the big question for end of next year when the Wright Amendment is lifted.

American is bringing in a bunch of the E-Jets, so we could expect to see some moving around of aircraft types to ORD and DFW. I wouldn't be shocked if we see ORD go all ERJ 175 at some point. Obviously with the merger with US Airways, I feel strongly CLT is on the horizon and it'll probably be done 70 seaters at first. DCA is always a chance, but I'm not holding my breath. MIA would be nice, but doubtful. I don't expect the PHX hub to last, so nothing to there. PHL would be nice and we could end up with 1 flight a day there for the int'l bank. JFK/LGA is a long shot.

So the general gist...more of the same. Large aircraft won't come unless they can maintain the level of fares and yield, which is hard to do when you add too much capacity.

[catch22]

In the next 5 years if expect:

More mainline service: IAH ATL ORD DEN DTW

New service: CLT DCA MIA LGA

More frequency: SFO CLE LAS HOU

Service reductions: DAL

End of service: MEM

[Richard at Remax]

Im still holding on for MSY.

[venture]

Im still holding on for MSY.

The only logical airline to do MSY would be Southwest. They just announced AUS-MSY, so perhaps its an option.

[Richard at Remax]

side note: speaking of MSY it looks like they are getting new terminal altogether Mayor Landrieu, Aviation Board and Regional Leaders Announce Plans to Build, New World Class Airport on North Side of MSY - Press Room

[HangryHippo]

MSY would be a nice addition.

How active is Mark Kranenburg (?) in recruiting service to these places? Are we as active as we could be?

[venture]

MSY would be a nice addition.

How active is Mark Kranenburg (?) in recruiting service to these places? Are we as active as we could be?

No idea. I noticed they put out a press release today about the ATL service, and it is only their 3rd of the entire year. It also seems they are just on autopilot out there and take whatever comes their way.

[Rover]

side note: speaking of MSY it looks like they are getting new terminal altogether Mayor Landrieu, Aviation Board and Regional Leaders Announce Plans to Build, New World Class Airport on North Side of MSY - Press Room

They really need it.

[HangryHippo]

No idea. I noticed they put out a press release today about the ATL service, and it is only their 3rd of the entire year. It also seems they are just on autopilot out there and take whatever comes their way.

It really does seem like that. Just ridiculous how little they advertise effectively. They seem far too content to just rest on their laurels.

[venture]

Has anyone seen a leakage report for the OKC catchment area recently? I'm not sure how long its been since they've done a true market study - if ever.

[ou48A]

This is interesting

Is This the Biggest Threat to the Major Airlines? - ALK, JBLU, LUV, SAVE - Foolish Blogging Network

Is This the Biggest Threat to the Major Airlines?

[ou48A]

Somebody told me Spirit Airlines tricks people with excessive baggage fees and was unreliable?

[venture]

Spirit is the first true Ultra Low Cost Carrier (ULCC) in the US. The closest we came before was SkyBus several years back, but they failed to get anywhere in the first year and collapsed. Spirit however has been around for decades and is lead by Ben Baldanza. He comes from US Airways and is extremely sharp. They have taken the a la carte model to the point that it is extreme successful for them. They are one of the most profitable airlines in the country when measured by profit margins.

When you book with them you are booking the seat. That's it. The break it out the cost of the seat and also show the cost of the government taxes you are paying for - and also the fuel portion. You then have the option to pick optional services - seat assignment, checked bags, carry on bag, etc. You pay extra for everything else. However, you could argue that the other airlines just bundle it all together so your end ticket cost is going to be close to the same. This is why you rarely see the majors go in and match base fares.

Spirit is proving to be the model that we see Frontier now following, though not as extreme. The other most successful company right now is Allegiant. They are just amazing at what they do and have brought back mainline sized jet service to cities through away by the majors. They also do it while maintaining very high load factors (normally 90%+ for their markets) and providing low fares.

Are they threats to the Big 4 (WN, AA/US, DL, UA/CO)? I don't see them as direct threats, but they can make it hard to compete outside of high yield business markets.

[venture]

Since we don't really get exposed to NK (Spirit), G4 (Allegiant), and Frontier (F9) that much here...here are their route maps. Yes I know we have F9 here already, but looking at their route map is the only way to appreciate the changes they are making to the network. Keep in mind the fleets these guys use.

Spirit - A319 and A321 ; Frontier - ERJ 190, A319, and A320 ; Allegiant - MD-83, MD-88, A-319, 757

[OKCTalker]

Leaner Airlines Mean Fewer Routes, Study Shows - WSJ.com

The link is to a story in today's Journal under the headline, "Leaner Airlines, Meaner Routes." It discusses cutbacks in flights, cities, routes and seats. OKC falls into their "small hub" category which declined 18% in the aggregate between 2007 & 2012. The other side of the supply & demand equation means that we're paying higher fares, on average 4% higher after adjusting for inflation.

So - this simply reinforces and helps quantify what we've known all along. Aside from a few exceptions, most cities are experiencing cutbacks in service, some are losing commercial air service altogether, and everyone is seeing higher fares. And it ain't over yet.

[venture]

Leaner Airlines Mean Fewer Routes, Study Shows - WSJ.com

The link is to a story in today's Journal under the headline, "Leaner Airlines, Meaner Routes." It discusses cutbacks in flights, cities, routes and seats. OKC falls into their "small hub" category which declined 18% in the aggregate between 2007 & 2012. The other side of the supply & demand equation means that we're paying higher fares, on average 4% higher after adjusting for inflation.

So - this simply reinforces and helps quantify what we've known all along. Aside from a few exceptions, most cities are experiencing cutbacks in service, some are losing commercial air service altogether, and everyone is seeing higher fares. And it ain't over yet.

It's just the sign of a maturing industry. We are approaching 40 years since deregulation and its been a rough road to get here.

However, once airlines get stabilized and remain profitable we'll probably see expansion start up slowly. Though I think we may end up just seeing new start ups instead of the majors branch out. The only real serious start up right now though is PeoplExpress and they will be east of Mississippi. Ultimate Jet Charter is another that comes to mind, they are already flying scheduled charters and are moving to change their certificate type to permit operating more frequent flights. Right now they operate as a Part 380 airline that can only do infrequent flights (4 or less on a route per week) and are moving to Part 121(?) to handle the scheduled operation better.

Of course it all comes down to oil prices. If they jump up anymore the profits vanish and its the dark times again. Oil prices really need to drop quite a bit to give some breathing room to these guys.

[Stew]

They've been installing new bench chairs in all of the gate lounges. They feature power ports under every seat. Noticed a few of them this morning. They look exactly the same as the old ones but with the power ports on the bottom.

That's awesome.

[catch22]

No idea. I noticed they put out a press release today about the ATL service, and it is only their 3rd of the entire year. It also seems they are just on autopilot out there and take whatever comes their way.

Our airport management is way too laid back.

Don't get me started on the PR department.

[venture]

Our airport management is way too laid back.

Don't get me started on the PR department.

I've been trying to get some information from them and naturally get no response. They don't care...or don't want to shed light on anything.