Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

[venture]

December marks the start of meteorological winter, even though record highs have been widespread. History has shown that Oklahoma weather during this time of year can fluctuate a lot. Fire Danger also goes up significantly as vegetation is now dormant. Severe weather, while not typical isn't completely rare this time of year. The severe weather images though will be removed for the winter to clear things up a bit in this post.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Severe Weather Information

Current Watches	Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD)

Snowfall Images

24 Hour Snowfall Totals

6 Hour Snowfall Forecasts

6 Hr	12 Hr	18 Hr	24 Hr	30 Hr	36 Hr	42 Hr	48 Hr

Fire Weather Images

Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1	Day 2	Days 3 to 8

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data
• NWS Norman Page: NWS
• Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center
• Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page
• West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE
• TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page
• NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	WSR-88D Frederick Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt
WSR-88D Vance AFB Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt

​State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

[venture]

New thread is going now, so wanted to give an outlook based on tonight's GFS run. I do want to say for several days now it keeps wanting to bring cold air down south, and that hasn't change. Precip chances keep bouncing all over the place, so that part of the forecast is very low confidence at this point.

Date	PM High	AM Low	Weather	24HR Precip Ending 8AM	Snowfall Ending 8AM
Monday, December 03, 2012	Low 70s	Near 60	Very slight chance of storms east.	< 0.10"
Tuesday, December 04, 2012	Low 60s	Near 50	Slight chance storms SE	< 0.10"
Wednesday, December 05, 2012	Upper 50s	Low 40s	Dry	0.00"
Thursday, December 06, 2012	Low 60s	Low 40s	Dry	0.00"
Friday, December 07, 2012	Mid 50s	Low 40s	Slight chance of rain	< 0.10"
Saturday, December 08, 2012	Low 60s	Upper 40s	Slight chance of rain	< 0.10"
Sunday, December 09, 2012	Upper 60s	Upper 50s	Chance of rain	0.10"
Monday, December 10, 2012	Near 60	Mid 60s	Chance of rain	0.10 - 0.50"	Trace
Tuesday, December 11, 2012	Mid 20s	Near 30	Rain to Snow	0.50 - 0.80"	3-6"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012	Mid Teens	Upper Teens	Dry	0.00"
Thursday, December 13, 2012	Mid 30s	Near 20	Flurries/Light Drizzle	< 0.10"
Friday, December 14, 2012	Mid 30s	Mid 30s	Flurries/Light Drizzle	Trace
Saturday, December 15, 2012	Near 50	Low 30s	Dry	0.00"
Sunday, December 16, 2012	Mid 30s	Near 30	Dry	0.00"
Monday, December 17, 2012	Mid 20s	Mid 20s	Dry	0.00"
Tuesday, December 18, 2012	Upper 20s	Low 20s	Dry	0.00"

[Bostonfan]

Looks like next week will feel much more like Christmas. I must say, it sure hard to get into the spirit with temps in the 70's.

[kelroy55]

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

Let's just skip those 4 days

[Plutonic Panda]

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

Let's just skip those 4 days

nooooooooo!!! lol

[kelroy55]

nooooooooo!!! lol

LOL well if it's going to snow make it worthwhile and drop a foot.

[ou48A]

Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.

[venture]

Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.

Definitely when it would allow the moisture to soak in and not run off.

GFS is still showing snowfall start on Monday morning for a good portion of Oklahoma. It is also opening the barn door late next week for a true arctic outbreak. Seems a bit early, but we'll see how it evolves.

[blangtang]

I ran my A/C today. I want to look back at this thread during a blizzard.

[ShiroiHikari]

Had to run my AC a bit today too.

I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...

[Bunty]

Had to run my AC a bit today too.

I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...

Really. The drought is so bad in Stillwater that a small part of the bottom of Boomer Lake is starting to show as pictured. 2 to 2 1/2 inches in the area since September have been far from enough. What kind of white birds are those? Egrets?

[sacolton]

No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

[Plutonic Panda]

No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

I don't recall anyone saying it will be massive and a life threatening storm.

[Jesseda]

No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

yeah you would think if there was any chance of snow next week that the news would be over dramatic with it by now

[Anonymous.]

They have learned their lesson. This isn't their first rodeo. While the first winter event of the season is definitely exciting (from a meteorological standpoint) it is additionally exciting at the moment since the weather has been stagnant since September. OKC has the best local weather coverage, and when the weather is boring here - the guys and gals get bored also. So this is finally something to look forward to.


Anyways, don't expect doomsday forecasts (if needed) until Saturday night when the exact track and precip bulbs are developing as the storm slides out of the Rockies.


The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.

[ou48A]

I am surprised our local news media really hasn’t recognized the severity of our drought in the northern areas of our state.

In the far northern areas the winter wheat crop really is on the verge of being as bad as the dust bowl days.
Without significant moisture very soon this is an economic disaster in the making in large areas of our state.

[sacolton]

I was looking at this ...

[ou48A]

The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.

While most of us understand the accuracy of a 10 or more day forecast is still very poor, it’s still good to know that there is possibility of a very significant cold / ice/ snow event toward the end of next week.

It helps some people with their planning and makes me/us start paying more attention to forecast

[venture]

I'll do another forecast this evening with the 00Z GFS run and see what it spits out. We are still looking at about 48 hours until the main storm comes ashore out west where the weather balloons can do their work.

[Anonymous.]

Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!

[SoonerDave]

Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.

[venture]

Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.

Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us.

Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.

[kelroy55]

Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us.

Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.

They get all the fun

[Bill Robertson]

Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!

Liquid falling from the sky I want. Just not frozen. Snow causes me a lot of extra hours of labor that I'm not used to and that I don't get paid for.

[venture]

This gives you a good idea what we are looking at, per GFS at 12Z...

Please note the storm system will not be making landfall until early Friday morning over BC, so limited upper air readings until then. Things could change pretty drastically. The main track of the low will would drop it down from BC through MT, WY, CO into OK and then swing northeast along I-44 up into Northern OH. If it could goes further into TX, things can change.