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Thread: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

  1. Weather Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    December marks the start of meteorological winter, even though record highs have been widespread. History has shown that Oklahoma weather during this time of year can fluctuate a lot. Fire Danger also goes up significantly as vegetation is now dormant. Severe weather, while not typical isn't completely rare this time of year. The severe weather images though will be removed for the winter to clear things up a bit in this post.

    This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

    Current Conditions
    Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map
    Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
    Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
    Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service
    Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
    Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight
    Severe Weather Information

    Snowfall Images
    24 Hour Snowfall Totals

    6 Hour Snowfall Forecasts
    6 Hr 12 Hr 18 Hr 24 Hr 30 Hr 36 Hr 42 Hr 48 Hr
    Fire Weather Images


    Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image
    Image will appear blank overnight.
    Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

    *Click any above graphic to view discussion.*


    References




    Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

    Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
    Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
    Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
    Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
    Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.




    Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image
    Image will appear blank overnight.
    Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

  2. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    New thread is going now, so wanted to give an outlook based on tonight's GFS run. I do want to say for several days now it keeps wanting to bring cold air down south, and that hasn't change. Precip chances keep bouncing all over the place, so that part of the forecast is very low confidence at this point.

    Date PM High AM Low Weather 24HR Precip Ending 8AM Snowfall Ending 8AM
    Monday, December 03, 2012 Low 70s Near 60 Very slight chance of storms east. < 0.10"
    Tuesday, December 04, 2012 Low 60s Near 50 Slight chance storms SE < 0.10"
    Wednesday, December 05, 2012 Upper 50s Low 40s Dry 0.00"
    Thursday, December 06, 2012 Low 60s Low 40s Dry 0.00"
    Friday, December 07, 2012 Mid 50s Low 40s Slight chance of rain < 0.10"
    Saturday, December 08, 2012 Low 60s Upper 40s Slight chance of rain < 0.10"
    Sunday, December 09, 2012 Upper 60s Upper 50s Chance of rain 0.10"
    Monday, December 10, 2012 Near 60 Mid 60s Chance of rain 0.10 - 0.50" Trace
    Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
    Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
    Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
    Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace
    Saturday, December 15, 2012 Near 50 Low 30s Dry 0.00"
    Sunday, December 16, 2012 Mid 30s Near 30 Dry 0.00"
    Monday, December 17, 2012 Mid 20s Mid 20s Dry 0.00"
    Tuesday, December 18, 2012 Upper 20s Low 20s Dry 0.00"

  3. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Looks like next week will feel much more like Christmas. I must say, it sure hard to get into the spirit with temps in the 70's.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
    Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
    Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
    Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

    Let's just skip those 4 days

  5. #5

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by kelroy55 View Post
    Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
    Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
    Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
    Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

    Let's just skip those 4 days
    nooooooooo!!! lol

  6. #6

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    nooooooooo!!! lol
    LOL well if it's going to snow make it worthwhile and drop a foot.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

    Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.

  8. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by ou48A View Post
    Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

    Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.
    Definitely when it would allow the moisture to soak in and not run off.

    GFS is still showing snowfall start on Monday morning for a good portion of Oklahoma. It is also opening the barn door late next week for a true arctic outbreak. Seems a bit early, but we'll see how it evolves.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    I ran my A/C today. I want to look back at this thread during a blizzard.

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Had to run my AC a bit today too.

    I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by ShiroiHikari View Post
    Had to run my AC a bit today too.

    I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...
    Really. The drought is so bad in Stillwater that a small part of the bottom of Boomer Lake is starting to show as pictured. 2 to 2 1/2 inches in the area since September have been far from enough. What kind of white birds are those? Egrets?

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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  12. #12

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

  13. #13

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?
    I don't recall anyone saying it will be massive and a life threatening storm.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?
    yeah you would think if there was any chance of snow next week that the news would be over dramatic with it by now

  15. #15

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    They have learned their lesson. This isn't their first rodeo. While the first winter event of the season is definitely exciting (from a meteorological standpoint) it is additionally exciting at the moment since the weather has been stagnant since September. OKC has the best local weather coverage, and when the weather is boring here - the guys and gals get bored also. So this is finally something to look forward to.


    Anyways, don't expect doomsday forecasts (if needed) until Saturday night when the exact track and precip bulbs are developing as the storm slides out of the Rockies.


    The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    I am surprised our local news media really hasnít recognized the severity of our drought in the northern areas of our state.

    In the far northern areas the winter wheat crop really is on the verge of being as bad as the dust bowl days.
    Without significant moisture very soon this is an economic disaster in the making in large areas of our state.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    I was looking at this ...

    Click image for larger version. 

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  18. #18

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.


    While most of us understand the accuracy of a 10 or more day forecast is still very poor, it’s still good to know that there is possibility of a very significant cold / ice/ snow event toward the end of next week.

    It helps some people with their planning and makes me/us start paying more attention to forecast

  19. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    I'll do another forecast this evening with the 00Z GFS run and see what it spits out. We are still looking at about 48 hours until the main storm comes ashore out west where the weather balloons can do their work.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

    Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!

  21. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.

  22. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerDave View Post
    Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.
    Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us.

    Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.

  23. #23

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us.

    Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.
    They get all the fun

  24. #24

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

    Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!
    Liquid falling from the sky I want. Just not frozen. Snow causes me a lot of extra hours of labor that I'm not used to and that I don't get paid for.

  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

    This gives you a good idea what we are looking at, per GFS at 12Z...

    Please note the storm system will not be making landfall until early Friday morning over BC, so limited upper air readings until then. Things could change pretty drastically. The main track of the low will would drop it down from BC through MT, WY, CO into OK and then swing northeast along I-44 up into Northern OH. If it could goes further into TX, things can change.


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