Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

[catch22]

Why did I sign up to work the holidays.....*sigh*

Love me a de-icing bucket.

[venture]

Why did I sign up to work the holidays.....*sigh*

Love me a de-icing bucket.

Hey...your work and contribution is completely appreciated out there. Even if you do work for the competition. :-P LOL

Anon - I'm with you on this. When you look at the NAM you just get those chills of what this could be if everything comes in at the perfect time. If the NAM track was about 50 miles further south we *might* be talking Blizzard Watch right now...but I still think it is over blowing precip amounts (below). GFS at 18Z I really like. It is a good general swatch of 3 to 6 inches over much of Oklahoma with some pockets of 6-7". That is a good manageable snow.

That NAM though...eesh. LOL

[venture]

I'm thinking it is a good thing I end up having a December only thread this time around. LOL I think the thread views have jumped about 3000 hits in the last day. :-X

[catch22]

Hey...your work and contribution is completely appreciated out there. Even if you do work for the competition. :-P LOL

Tell SMI/J that.

[BlackmoreRulz]

What time is it gonna hit? I gotta brisket to smoke EARLY Xmas morn

[OKCisOK4me]

Local station said 6am..freezing precip and quickly changing over to snow. But that could change...

[Dustin]

David Payne posted this crazy model to twitter.



Big bullsey on OKC with 20" of snow... I doubt he actually trusts this model and he's just pulling our leg.

[venture]

That would be the NAM. It has been really high in snow totals. If it verifies it does illustrate what I meant that 50 miles can make a huge difference. GFS is staying the course with the 3-6".

[venture]

NAM 00Z GFS 00Z

[blangtang]

So 2 " or maybe around a foot and a half, lol! I'm getting my snow shovel ready!

[Bunty]

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OKLAHOMA:

Areas affected: Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Comanche; Custer; Dewey; Grady; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Wa****a

Instructions: Avoid travel. Be sure you can take care of yourself and your family if you lose electrical power. Monitor weather forecasts and information.

Message summary: ...winter storm warning in effect from midnight tonight to midnight cst tuesday night...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter storm warning for sleet...snow and blowing snow which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight cst tuesday night. The winter storm warning replaces the winter storm watch.
* timing: snow will develop between midnight and 9 am cst on tuesday and be heaviest during the daytime hours before tapering to flurries tuesday evening. Areas from lawton to oklahoma city may see an extended period of sleet before the sleet changes to snow.
* main impact: snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with higher amounts possible. Considerable drifting of snow is also likely...especially on west to east roads.
* other impacts: considerable blowing snow from north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph and possible near whiteout conditions will make travel very hazardous. Wind chill values will be in the -10 to +10 range allowing for possible hypothermia.

[venture]

Since the site's formatting tools are broke right now, will post the images in separate posts. First the discussion on things...As posted already, the Winter Storm Warning has been put out for roughly the Central third of the state. Exact placement of the higher snow totals is still a bit off from model to model, but even the recently conservative GFS has amounts over 12" in some places. I wouldn't get to fixed on the exact placement of the totals on the maps I'm posting next, as things can vary 50-75 miles any direction.There is roughly some agreement that the 6" plus line is will run roughly from Clinton to Pauls Valley to Shawnee and north. GFS has an area of 6 to 14" spread out through this area, whereas NAM (which has been aggressive) is showing amounts could get in the 18-20" range in some locations. I still think that is a tad overblown, but still something to keep in mind if we get any thunderstorm development to increase snowfall rates.Christmas Day definitely looks like one if you don't have to travel, don't. Wednesday is going to probably still be a bit ugly for travel, but hopefully the plow trucks are doing their thing correctly and can get the main roads cleaned out.

[venture]

[venture]

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc..._06Z_dec24.png

[venture]

[venture]

Also wanted to point out another aspect of this storm. SPC has put out a moderate risk tomorrow near the Gulf Coast. This is going to be quite a significant storm in all facets of weather, so hopefully everyone stays weather aware and safe.

[venture]

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

[Uncle Slayton]

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

What's your best guess for the Norman area/central OK?

[venture]

What's your best guess for the Norman area/central OK?

I think 6 to 10 is reasonable for much of the area. If we get any sleet early the numbers may go down, if we get any thunderstorms (thundersnow) it may go up.

[Plutonic Panda]

Just curious, why does NAM say we're going to have really high snow amounts and you say is isn't true? Sorry if you already explained and I missed it.

[Uncle Slayton]

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

Venture, they need your weather skills abroad. Starting with the UK Daily Mail.

Massive winter storm from Dallas to Maine threatens Christmas travel for 87 million people... as HALF of U.S. is set for a white Christmas (and the snow will continue for days after)
First white Christmas in Oklahoma City since 1914 is predicted


Read more: US Weather: White Christmas for nearly half of Americans as storm rumbles across nation | Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

[Bunty]

Really, has it been as long as 1914 when Christmas became white on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City?

[Jim Kyle]

Venture, they need your weather skills abroad. Starting with the UK Daily Mail.

Hey, the Daily Mail is almost as reliable as Weekly World News and The National Enquirer...

[Uncle Slayton]

Really, has it been as long as 1914 when Christmas became white on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City?

Now that I consider it, I'm not sure what the Bing Crosby/Irving Berlin definition of a White Christmas is, but I seem to recall something about 1 inch or greater of snow on the ground Christmas morning being the "official" criteria for declaring a white Christmas.

Honestly, I don't remember how the 2009 event started. I drove to work in the rain thinking it was going to be a big bust, and drove home an hour and a half later in god-awful conditions.

[JayhawkTransplant]

Ugh. So you guys are telling me I won't be able to drive back to OKC as I had planned tomorrow.

Will you guys keep me updated on any power outages tomorrow?