Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

[OKCisOK4me]

Come on dry slot!

[Anonymous.]

Models look to be pushing a 26 and 27 event (when everyone returns to work). Now my eyes are looking @ New Year's storm also. It looks to clobber OK just days later. This will be especially true if we get measurable snow from the first storm as it will provide the 'refrigerator' effect and benefit the moisture return.


Man I hate forecasting something this far out, but this is way too much fun considering last year we got to do none of this!

[venture]

New ECMWF 12Z model data is available, it is complete departure from the previous 3 runs. GFS remains relatively consistent in forecast a major winter storms over the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Clustering everything up when you compare all the previous runs, we are looking at the Low forming/intensifying over New Mexico or West Texas Monday/Tuesday. ECMWF has it further north of WY/MT and dropping south quickly. Yesterdays 18Z, 00Z, this mornings 06Z, 12Z GFS runs and the 00Z ECMWF run yesterday all cluster the tracks around the Red River Valley and then moving Northeast into the Lakes. The outlier being the 12Z ECMWF today which takes the low from WY due east into the Lower Lakes region.



We could get into forecast amounts and all that, but really it isn't going to matter until we get some additional model runs. The change by ECMWF is concerning because it could be picking up on something. GFS did go further north on this latest run, so we need to evaluate that as well. There might also be multiple rounds of 6" inch snowfall over some areas of Oklahoma.

I would stay alert at this point but don't fall over the edge just yet on hysteria.

[OKCisOK4me]

So Sunday/Christmas Eve is going to be a better forecast model, and safer bet if our local weather forecasters are going to scare and prepare everyone....Sunday? Cause I don't think that the grocery stores are open on Christmas Eve. I'll do my grocery shopping on Saturday.

[SoonerDave]

New ECMWF 12Z model data is available, it is complete departure from the previous 3 runs. GFS remains relatively consistent in forecast a major winter storms over the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Clustering everything up when you compare all the previous runs, we are looking at the Low forming/intensifying over New Mexico or West Texas Monday/Tuesday. ECMWF has it further north of WY/MT and dropping south quickly. Yesterdays 18Z, 00Z, this mornings 06Z, 12Z GFS runs and the 00Z ECMWF run yesterday all cluster the tracks around the Red River Valley and then moving Northeast into the Lakes. The outlier being the 12Z ECMWF today which takes the low from WY due east into the Lower Lakes region.



We could get into forecast amounts and all that, but really it isn't going to matter until we get some additional model runs. The change by ECMWF is concerning because it could be picking up on something. GFS did go further north on this latest run, so we need to evaluate that as well. There might also be multiple rounds of 6" inch snowfall over some areas of Oklahoma.

I would stay alert at this point but don't fall over the edge just yet on hysteria.

Venture, I was watching one met video earlier today that discussed the GFS model having the storm move toward the Great Lakes. This particular commenter emphatically disagreed with that model due to the blocking pattern that was emerging in NE US from the Euro model, and thus said the storm would push south and east, not through the Lakes, as a result of the blocking. Bottom line, the guy was very skeptical of the GFS in the current scenario.

Any thoughts?

[venture]

So Sunday/Christmas Eve is going to be a better forecast model, and safer bet if our local weather forecasters are going to scare and prepare everyone....Sunday? Cause I don't think that the grocery stores are open on Christmas Eve. I'll do my grocery shopping on Saturday.

Yeah, this thing won't be onshore for another few days so we won't get more accurate forecasts until then. However, consistency is good but that new ECMWF just throws a fly in things for confidence.

If we look at the 12Z GFS precip forecast we'll start to see moisture move in Tuesday afternoon. Could see some heavy rain initially over much of Oklahoma, whereas NW OK could be mostly snow. Wednesday evening cold air will move in as the low moves into Eastern OK and will change everything to snow. Still looking at some heavy snow NW, moderate in Central sections. It'll taper off by Thursday evening.

Next round of snow moves in New Years Eve (auto hockey + alcohol = nonstop news coverage!). It will move out quickly on New Years Day. This looks like it'll be 100% snow and precip values are around 0.70-0.80" for Central OK. So that would definitely be a decent snowfall for us again if you do the typical 10 to 1 ratio (it might be higher since all levels of the atmosphere will be well below freezing).

This could be huge in helping with fire season kicking into full swing and helping with the drought.

[venture]

Venture, I was watching one met video earlier today that discussed the GFS model having the storm move toward the Great Lakes. This particular commenter emphatically disagreed with that model due to the blocking pattern that was emerging in NE US from the Euro model, and thus said the storm would push south and east, not through the Lakes, as a result of the blocking. Bottom line, the guy was very skeptical of the GFS in the current scenario.

Any thoughts?

In my little drawing which is pretty bad (LOL), the red line is the ECMWF and the blue is the GFS. I'm not really sure why he would make that comment since the ECMWF is showing almost the exact same thing...and it is the Euro model for those that don't know. There is going to be a lot that needs to wash out though. I'm not committing to anything yet because we've seen these monster storms predicted just evaporate even after 8 consistent runs.

[ou48A]

This could be a life threating event.


National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012


... A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS... OKLAHOMA... AND TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM... SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.

[SoonerDave]

In my little drawing which is pretty bad (LOL), the red line is the ECMWF and the blue is the GFS. I'm not really sure why he would make that comment since the ECMWF is showing almost the exact same thing...and it is the Euro model for those that don't know. There is going to be a lot that needs to wash out though. I'm not committing to anything yet because we've seen these monster storms predicted just evaporate even after 8 consistent runs.

Good enough Thanks, Venture. I am not on board with any hysteria either, but watching the stuff this far out is fascinating. Always trying to learn!

[venture]

This could be a life threating event.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

Issued by The National Weather Service
Oklahoma City, OK

Tue, Dec 18, 2012, 10:06 AM CST
Updated Dec 18, 2012, 1:40pm CST
... A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS... OKLAHOMA... AND TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM... SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.

Where is this Oklahoma City, OK office of the NWS? :-P

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

Anyway. They have to warn of the possiblities since the media is going crazy already. ECMWF 12Z is further north, GFS 12Z trended north. Not to mention the ECMWF is lightnight fast as well. Monday AM the storm is over the Panhandle, Tuesday AM it is over Central IL. It is running almost a good 36 hours faster than the GFS right now. We need to see more model runs to figure out which is correct in whatever it is picking up on.

[OKCisOK4me]

Well, on the off chance that this first storm turns into a world ender, 10-12 inches with our current ground temps has got to be pretty darn impressive and actually would end up being more snow then what they'd end up forecasting right? What do you think the ground temps are now? 45-50 degrees?

[venture]

Well, on the off chance that this first storm turns into a world ender, 10-12 inches with our current ground temps has got to be pretty darn impressive and actually would end up being more snow then what they'd end up forecasting right? What do you think the ground temps are now? 45-50 degrees?

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, I forget about the silly Oklahoma Mesonet website and the graphics you post at the front of each monthly thread. Pretty much nailed my guess based on the regions to be affected by this potential storm.

[venture]

From NWS Norman's afternoon discussion:

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE DAY AFTER. UP UNTIL THIS MORNING...MODELS HAD BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN EVOLVING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW...THOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCATIONS REMAIN UNKNOWN.

Pretty much exactly what I was pointing out earlier today. That stupid ECMWF flopping and GFS trending a bit more north took away the slam dunk. The 18Z GFS is loading in now and should have next week's forecast done in about an hour.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, so for everyone that's twerked up about this and a New Year's Eve storm need to just chill out.. both storms are both waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far out.

[jn1780]

Yeah, so for everyone that's twerked up about this and a New Year's Eve storm need to just chill out.. both storms are both waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far out.

Pfft......Everyone knows that there will be no snow because the atmosphere will get burn off by the sun this Friday. lol

[Plutonic Panda]

Winter storm, snow possible for Oklahoma on Christmas | NewsOK.com

http://www.news9.com/story/20373351/...rm-in-oklahoma

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan CH 4 indicates that right now he doesn’t think the Christmas storm was going to be a big deal for Oklahoma…… but stay tuned

[Anonymous.]

I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.


This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

[venture]

Mike Morgan CH 4 indicates that right now he doesn’t think the Christmas storm was going to be a big deal for Oklahoma…… but stay tuned

He's probably focusing on the 18Z GFS which dry slots all of Central OK but dumps 12" on Western and Eastern OK.

I'm ignoring it until I see it last 2-3 more runs.

[venture]

I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.

This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

This is why the media needs to back off until these things actually get onshore so the upper air soundings can do their thing.

[ljbab728]

He's probably focusing on the 18Z GFS which dry slots all of Central OK but dumps 12" on Western and Eastern OK.

I'm ignoring it until I see it last 2-3 more runs.

Actually what he said was the model he was referring to was trending towards all of the activity being to the east of Oklahoma. He absolutely did not rule out the possibility of getting hammered though based on another model.

[jn1780]

I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.


This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

New Year's is two weeks away. We don't know what's going to happen 1 week from now.

[venture]

Actually what he said was the model he was referring to was trending towards all of the activity being to the east of Oklahoma. He absolutely did not rule out the possibility of getting hammered though based on another model.

I'd love to see what he was actually looking at then. LOL

[Anonymous.]

New GFS throws a huge curveball...

Putting the system into the SE US. LAME! Hoping it is a random outlying run. Seems extremely drastic after so much consistency.