Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012

[Ginkasa]

This is why forecasts exist. For planning...

We had an icestorm on Christmas something like 12 or 13 years ago. I was still a kid. We could have gone to our grandma's and stayed overnight on Christmas Eve and spent the holiday with the whole family as usual, but then we would have been stuck. Wouldn't have been a problem, but my dad had to work on the 26th. He couldn't have made it if we were stuck at grandma's. Point is, turbulent storms can be disruptive regardless of the level of planning.

[ou48A]

Not if it keeps me from seeing any of my family.

Those who make a living from agriculture would be very happy with a heavy wet snow regardless of your plans…..
Many who want lower food prices will be happy too!

[ljbab728]

Those who make a living from agriculture would be very happy with a heavy wet snow regardless of your plans…..
Many who want lower food prices will be happy too!

Well they can just pray for the snow to wait one day then. LOL
But seriously having a large snowstorm here on Christmas is going to have zero effect on our food prices so don't hang your hat on that one. That would barely be a blip on the radar for that problem. As someone who grew up on a farm I don't need any lectures about how important weather is.

[ou48A]

Well they can just pray for the snow to wait one day then. LOL
But seriously having a large snowstorm here on Christmas is going to have zero effect on our food prices so don't hang your hat on that one. That would barely be a blip on the radar for that problem. As someone who grew up on a farm I don't need any lectures about how important weather is.

Anything that puts a major dent in the drought across a broad area like they are talking about will impact the futures market.

[ljbab728]

Anything that puts a major dent in the drought across a broad area like they are talking about will impact the futures market.

And what they're talking about for here will come nowhere close to making any kind of a dent in the drought. It wouldn't hurt but it won't affect any markets in the least. It would appeal to those who like to look at it and it would cause transportation issues and that's about all.

[ou48A]

And what they're talking about for here will come nowhere close to making any kind of a dent in the drought. It wouldn't hurt but it won't affect any markets in the least. It would appeal to those who like to look at it and it would cause transportation issues and that's about all.

I have heard 10 to 12”.
But regardless it’s a step in the right direction and perhaps an indication of a changing weather pattern that if true would without question move the futures markets.
Also regardless….. Mother Nature doesn’t wait on us and our best plans. Weather can still be king

[ljbab728]

I have heard 10 to 12”.
But regardless it’s a step in the right direction and perhaps an indication of a changing weather pattern that if true would without question move the futures markets.
Also regardless….. Mother Nature doesn’t wait on us and our best plans. Weather can still be king

You're absolutely correct. What will happen will happen. We don't have to like it or hope for it though. LOL

[ou48A]

It doesn’t happen all that often this far south but winter weather can control your life and your travel plans, if you let it.
While living in far more blizzard prone areas I learned to always keep my winter travel plans very flexible and allow an extra day on either end of the trip to accommodate weather issues.

[ou48A]

If this snow does materialize let’s hope OKC city, state of OK and others do a much better job than they did in 2009 of clearing the streets and towing off vehicles that were left in the middle of the interstates.
I believe OKC has some additional equipment. Let’s hope they have enough staff this time.

Their poor response had to have cost the area many millions of dollars in lost commerce.

[venture]

I'm going to let this go a few more model runs before getting into it. Plus, I've been flying all day and I'm tired. :-P

[SoonerDave]

If this snow does materialize let’s hope OKC city, state of OK and others do a much better job than they did in 2009 of clearing the streets and towing off vehicles that were left in the middle of the interstates.
I believe OKC has some additional equipment. Let’s hope they have enough staff this time.

Their poor response had to have cost the area many millions of dollars in lost commerce.

I can't give the city/state too much grief for their response to that storm. That was an epic monster, and there's no way it would even be considered prudent for a city/state like ours to be able to respond significantly better. Only way I could see it would be to change our winter response planning quite drastically - in a manner not consistent with what we know is our more conventional winter weather season. This may be a rough or imperfect analogy, but the idea is there - it would be like Hoboken planning for a Hurricane Sandy every year,. or Buffalo planning for an F5 tornado. You can't. You can only plan for the generally foreseeable.

Look at Dallas from a few years ago. They had a monster ice and snow event, and they're even less prepared for such things than we are. I don't even think the city of Dallas owns a literal snowplow; they just affix blades to road graders and tractors and do the best they can.

I remember that '09 blizzard well, and also remember talking to my mom about it, and she pointed out that it was one of the worst she'd ever seen. And that includes the time we spent in Buffalo, New York, where I was born, and winter storms were as regular as pancake breakfasts at the Kiwanis. She, as a native Oklahoman, typically jokes about how we react to even slight winter weather here in contrast to the realities of Buffalo, but that blizzard was....different.

I'll be very interested to hear Venture's take on all this, but I must admit my eyebrows are being raised even a week out not so much at what the TV people are saying, but at the fact that apparently lots of other weather types are getting very interested in what the models are showing for next Tuesday-Thursday, and have apparently been showing with remarkable consistency for a few days now.

Lots of time left, lots can change, but it's going to get very interesting.

[ou48A]

Plows that are bought now if properly maintained easily pay for them self’s after one or 2 large events. Plows when properly operated and maintained can last 50 years or more. I have used 70 year old plows.

Plows are a relatively small investment that pays for its self-many times over. It pays for its self by getting commerce back up and running quicker and it saves by allowing emergency response times to be quicker. Removing the snow prevents many millions of dollars’ worth of damage to pavement.

It is foreseeable that we will have snow storms and blizzards in our state and even if they don’t happen every year the relatively small investment easily pays for its self

[SoonerDave]

Plows that are bought now if properly maintained easily pay for them self’s after one or 2 large events. Plows when properly operated and maintained can last 50 years or more. I have used 70 year old plows.

Plows are a relatively small investment that pays for its self-many times over. It pays for its self by getting commerce back up and running quicker and it saves by allowing emergency response times to be quicker. Removing the snow prevents many millions of dollars’ worth of damage to pavement.

It is foreseeable that we will have snow storms and blizzards in our state and even if they don’t happen every year the relatively small investment easily pays for its self

Remember, it was Dallas that doesn't have the snowplows. And the relative value of the snowplows isn't in having one, its in the opportunity cost of whatever other Vitally Important Thing is competing for the same limited city/state funds. If you think of it in terms of (totally as an example) replacing worn out police cars, broken garbage trucks, updating water services, things like that, it becomes evident you have to rack and stack priorities accordingly, and then things like snowplows - no matter how valuable they are for the purpose for which they're intended - more pressing priorities necessarily prevail.

Anyway, this is getting off topic, sorry. Returning to Possible Christmas Winter Storm Discussion

If you follow any weather types on Twitter, it is *abuzz* right now with the models showing a potential storm next Tuesday-Wednedsay. Apprently the latest EURO model run continues to show a possible "significant winter storm" in the plains next Tues-Thu. Looks like there are two models right now - both concur on a storm next week, but one says it hits Christmas Day, the other says snow in to the OK area in the latter half of Christmas day, with the "big hit" on the 26th, then starting to move out on the 27th.

Our former local KOCO guy, Rick Mitchell, He's advising "Too early for details, but stay tuned."

There are a lot of eyeballs on this.

[ou48A]

Remember, it was Dallas that doesn't have the snowplows. And the relative value of the snowplows isn't in having one, its in the opportunity cost of whatever other Vitally Important Thing is competing for the same limited city/state funds. If you think of it in terms of (totally as an example) replacing worn out police cars, broken garbage trucks, updating water services, things like that, it becomes evident you have to rack and stack priorities accordingly, and then things like snowplows - no matter how valuable they are for the purpose for which they're intended - more pressing priorities necessarily prevail.

Plowed roads reduce the wear and tear of police cars, garbage trucks, and prevent accidents.
Many municipalities mount plows on their garbage trucks…. we could do that too in Oklahoma.



In the long run plowed roads save money and free up money for other pressing needs in our area.

[Jim Kyle]

Many municipalities mount plows on their garbage trucks…. we could do that too in Oklahoma.

Good luck getting the contractors to do that! I don't think OKC owns a single garbage truck...

[adaniel]

I can't give the city/state too much grief for their response to that storm. That was an epic monster, and there's no way it would even be considered prudent for a city/state like ours to be able to respond significantly better. Only way I could see it would be to change our winter response planning quite drastically - in a manner not consistent with what we know is our more conventional winter weather season. This may be a rough or imperfect analogy, but the idea is there - it would be like Hoboken planning for a Hurricane Sandy every year,. or Buffalo planning for an F5 tornado. You can't. You can only plan for the generally foreseeable.

Look at Dallas from a few years ago. They had a monster ice and snow event, and they're even less prepared for such things than we are. I don't even think the city of Dallas owns a literal snowplow; they just affix blades to road graders and tractors and do the best they can.

I remember that '09 blizzard well, and also remember talking to my mom about it, and she pointed out that it was one of the worst she'd ever seen. And that includes the time we spent in Buffalo, New York, where I was born, and winter storms were as regular as pancake breakfasts at the Kiwanis. She, as a native Oklahoman, typically jokes about how we react to even slight winter weather here in contrast to the realities of Buffalo, but that blizzard was....different.

I'll be very interested to hear Venture's take on all this, but I must admit my eyebrows are being raised even a week out not so much at what the TV people are saying, but at the fact that apparently lots of other weather types are getting very interested in what the models are showing for next Tuesday-Thursday, and have apparently been showing with remarkable consistency for a few days now.

Lots of time left, lots can change, but it's going to get very interesting.

Well said, SoonerDave.

I mean, would you expect Chicago to be prepared for an F4-F5 tornado? Yes, something like that can *technically* happen in that area, but its very rare. Likewise, when an epic blizzard not seen since in decades hits, especially with as little warning the Christmas Eve 09 storm had, its foolish to expect everything to be back to normal in 24-48 hours. Heck, the last major snowstorm to hit NYC (December 2010,) everything wasn't plowed for at least 6 days.

I will also say, with apologies for those I offend, that the lack of personal preparation for many in this state is far more troubling than anything the city does. I grew up a military brat and had to live in both Alaska and North Dakota. Everyone there knew the drill in the winter. Have a good FWD or AWD car with plenty of antifreeze and good snow tires (The truck/SUV ownership rate is far lower up there than here). Have blankets and a small shovel in the car just in case. Keep about 3 days worth of food and medicine in the house when a big storm is forecast. Most importantly, have the sense to know when its appropriate to go out and just hunker down at home with some hot cocoa and some movies until its safe to go out.

The "drill" in Oklahoma? Go to the grocery store the night before. Fight and elbow others in some post-apocalyptic scene and grab 20 loaves of bread. When the storm hits and you realize that you have nothing to go with said bread (or if you just get bored), get in your giant SUV or lifted truck with bald tires, conditions be damned, and go see if there's a Wal Mart open. Pray to God you don't get stranded/stuck and if you do, hope that there's an even bigger idiot with a bigger truck/SUV who can tow you out. When you finally get home and have to stay in the house for an extra day or 2, complain loudly about being stuck inside, how terrible the plowing is, how you trudged through the snow barefoot when you were a kid, how "weak" everyone is, etc. etc.

The sad thing is I am only slightly exaggerating, and in all seriousness, I am really surprised that more people have not perished during previous bouts of winter weather.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube

[SoonerDave]

NWS has issued some preliminary guidance on next week's possible storm...emphasizing things are still too far out for precise timing, but I think things are gravitating toward a decent chance for something happening in the Plains next week...

Iowa Environmental Mesonet

[SoonerDave]

Well said, SoonerDave.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube

Thanks, adaniel

The discussion on that youtube clip is VERY interesting. I think it explains, at least in part, why so many other met types are really taking notice with this storm - the fundamental change in the blocking that the one model is predicting, which then forces that storm system and the cold air south into the plains.

Next week is getting very, very interesting. Just have to keep watching, too early to get out the ice and shovels yet, of course. But that video did a nice job of providing a pretty simple explanation of the changes going on that's essentially creating this forecast scenario.

[ou48A]

Well said, SoonerDave.

I mean, would you expect Chicago to be prepared for an F4-F5 tornado? Yes, something like that can *technically* happen in that area, but its very rare. Likewise, when an epic blizzard not seen since in decades hits, especially with as little warning the Christmas Eve 09 storm had, its foolish to expect everything to be back to normal in 24-48 hours. Heck, the last major snowstorm to hit NYC (December 2010,) everything wasn't plowed for at least 6 days.

I will also say, with apologies for those I offend, that the lack of personal preparation for many in this state is far more troubling than anything the city does. I grew up a military brat and had to live in both Alaska and North Dakota. Everyone there knew the drill in the winter. Have a good FWD or AWD car with plenty of antifreeze and good snow tires (The truck/SUV ownership rate is far lower up there than here). Have blankets and a small shovel in the car just in case. Keep about 3 days worth of food and medicine in the house when a big storm is forecast. Most importantly, have the sense to know when its appropriate to go out and just hunker down at home with some hot cocoa and some movies until its safe to go out.

The "drill" in Oklahoma? Go to the grocery store the night before. Fight and elbow others in some post-apocalyptic scene and grab 20 loaves of bread. When the storm hits and you realize that you have nothing to go with said bread (or if you just get bored), get in your giant SUV or lifted truck with bald tires, conditions be damned, and go see if there's a Wal Mart open. Pray to God you don't get stranded/stuck and if you do, hope that there's an even bigger idiot with a bigger truck/SUV who can tow you out. When you finally get home and have to stay in the house for an extra day or 2, complain loudly about being stuck inside, how terrible the plowing is, how you trudged through the snow barefoot when you were a kid, how "weak" everyone is, etc. etc.

The sad thing is I am only slightly exaggerating, and in all seriousness, I am really surprised that more people have not perished during previous bouts of winter weather.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube

Almost all full time farmers and most longtime residents who live on the high farm plains are far more prepared than what you have described.

Virtually all farmers and much major business have their own equipment to remove snow. I know the energy company’s I worked for did. A few locations had snow mobiles, snow cats and used helicopters. Some folks still keep horses so they can get around in deep snow. One energy company I worked for paid a retainer fee for the use of horse’s which I used for few hours once, it sucked. My energy company gave each of us 2 winter survival kits for our personal vehicles. Most people I knew kept a minimum of 2 to 3 weeks’ worth of food for people, and at least that much for their animals. It was past experiences that lead to these preparations

[ou48A]

Good luck getting the contractors to do that! I don't think OKC owns a single garbage truck...

The city of Norman owns its own garbage trucks as do many other citys in Oklahoma.
Many times during a snow event trash service is suspended with staff sent home. Mounting snow plows on garbage trucks would be a way to utilized both trained staff and equipment. It would get commerce back up and running quicker and also save money in ways that I previously mentioned.

[ou48A]

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube

Very good stuff on the Youtube link
Thanks for posting.
Keep them coming

[Dubya61]

PS: I thought I heard NOAA started giving names to winter storms? Does this storm have a name yet?

Winter-geddon-it-on-snow-polcalypse-white-out-fury-from-Mount-Doom 2012!

[venture]

PS: I thought I heard NOAA started giving names to winter storms? Does this storm have a name yet?

No they do not. That is the Weather Channel that is doing it themselves and the NWS does not condone/sanction the action since it has too many variables and insurance implications.

[ou48A]

No they do not. That is the Weather Channel that is doing it themselves and the NWS does not condone/sanction the action since it has too many variables and insurance implications.

Thanks for clearing that up

[SoonerDave]

Winter-geddon-it-on-snow-polcalypse-white-out-fury-from-Mount-Doom 2012!

Love it.