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  1. Weather Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Summer is finally over, hopefully, and cold air is making its first run at the country. Chances of snow actually are already cropping up for parts of the country and furnaces might be going in Oklahoma sooner than expected. This period can still bring significant severe weather events as we transition into Winter.


    This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

    Other Threads to Checkout
    Severe Weather Trends: Severe Weather Trends
    Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: 2012 Oklahoma Tornado Tracking List


    Current Conditions
    Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map
    Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
    Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
    Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service
    Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
    Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight
    Severe Weather Information


    SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

    *Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

    Day 1 Outlook Tornado Outlook Wind Outlook Hail Outlook

    Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook

    Days 4 through 8 Outlook


    Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8

    SPC Severe Weather Reports



    Fire Weather Images


    Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image
    Image will appear blank overnight.
    Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

    *Click any above graphic to view discussion.*


    References




    Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

    Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
    Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
    Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
    Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
    Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.



    State Radar Images
    WSR-88D Twin Lakes WSR-88D Frederick
    WSR-88D Vance AFB Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
    Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.
    Phased Array Radar (Next Generation Test Bed) CASA Radar Deployment - SW Oklahoma
    Multi-Radar Products
    Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)
    Multi-Radar Products
    Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite
    State Satellite Images

    Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image
    Image will appear blank overnight.
    Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image
    Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.



  2. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Overall coming up in the extended has a good roller coast ride setup in temps. Warm the next day or two, then cool to cold, then back to warm. Saturday looks like the coldest day in the near term coming up. GFS keeps driving temps down. Looks like they will be falling through the 40s most of the day now. There will be some light precip around and GFS has also been indicating, for the last day now, of some light snow mixing in across Northern portions of OK. I would think this might end up being more so on the side of sleet if it happens.

    Next major shot of precip is on Weds the 10th where some heavy rain could fall in the state (except for far NW). Rain and storms will linger through that following Sunday before drying out. Not looking at anything severe right now except maybe on Saturday and Sunday. Nothing major though from the looks of it...but it is way far out still.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    I'm loving the shots of cooler air, nothing like last summer/fall!

  4. #4

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by zachj7 View Post
    I'm loving the shots of cooler air, nothing like last summer/fall!
    Yes, wish it wouldn't rain or be cold for three weekends in a row though.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Venture, what is the chance of rain Friday evening through late Friday night. I'm thinking of the high school games.

  6. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Yes, wish it wouldn't rain or be cold for three weekends in a row though.
    Agree. It should just snow and be done with it.

  7. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Frost Advisory Saturday night...mainly West of I-35 and north of I-40. It includes Oklahoma County, but other low lying areas will probably see some as well. Maybe this will finally get the grass to stop growing. LOL

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    348 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012


    OKZ004>026-051700-
    /O.NEW.KOUN.FR.Y.0001.121007T0400Z-121007T1400Z/
    HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
    NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
    BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
    PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
    CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
    KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
    ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER
    348 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012


    ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT
    SUNDAY...


    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FROST
    ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT
    SUNDAY.


    * MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 TO 36 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.


    * IMPACTS: DELICATE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED.


    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


    MOVE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS TO AVOID DAMAGE FROM THE FROST.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?

  9. #9

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by adaniel View Post
    Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?

    I hope Dallas clears out by game day,,, otherwise I don’t care. We & they still need rain.
    At least it probably won’t be to hot.

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by adaniel View Post
    Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?
    Couple of forecasts I've read out of the DFW area are, at least for now, calling for nice weather Thursday and Friday, with a chance for a storm on Saturday. As Venture has mentioned, however, take anything much more than two or three days out with several large grains of salt.

  11. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Will be posting a full update after the 12Z model runs. Severe risks going up the next few days and we could see a very active event somewhere in the Plains this weekend. Also look for some more swings in temps as we continue to change seasons into Winter.

    Slight risk is already up for Friday in NW OK and the Panhandle. Saturday this could expand over much of Central & Eastern OK.

  12. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Date Hi AM Low Weather 24HR Precip Ending 8AM
    Thursday, October 11, 2012 Near 80 Upper 50s Isolated Rain/Storms - Mrgnl Svr 0.1
    Friday, October 12, 2012 Mid 70s Mid 60s Scattered Storms - Some Severe 0.1 to 0.50
    Saturday, October 13, 2012 Mid 70s Mid 60s Scattered Storms - Some Severe 0.1 to 0.50
    Sunday, October 14, 2012 Upper 70 Mid 50s Dry 0
    Monday, October 15, 2012 Near 80 Upper 50s Isolated Storms < 0.1
    Tuesday, October 16, 2012 Low 80s Upper 60s Dry 0
    Wednesday, October 17, 2012 Mid 70s Low 60s Dry 0
    Thursday, October 18, 2012 Upper 50s Low 40s Dry 0
    Friday, October 19, 2012 Low 60s Upper 40s Dry 0
    Saturday, October 20, 2012 Mid 60s Low 50s Isolated Showers < 0.1
    Sunday, October 21, 2012 Mid 50s Near 50 Isolated Showers <0.1 (South)
    Monday, October 22, 2012 Low 50s Upper 40s Isolated Showers <0.1 (South)
    Tuesday, October 23, 2012 Upper 50s Low 40s Dry 0
    Wednesday, October 24, 2012 Low 60s Low 50s Isolated Showers < 0.1
    Thursday, October 25, 2012 Mid 60s Mid 50s Isolated Showers < 0.1 (North)
    Friday, October 26, 2012 N/A Near 60 N/A N/A

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Slight Risk in the state the next 3 days. Today - Northern OK. Tomorrow - NW OK. Saturday - Central/Eastern OK.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0100 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

    VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER AREA TO
    EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD OVER
    PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL CONUS...RELATED TO PRONOUNCED CYCLONE ALOFT NOW
    LOCATED INVOF CENTRAL CA COASTAL WATERS. ASSOCIATED LOW IS FCST TO
    PIVOT SEWD JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...THEN MOVE
    ASHORE AROUND 12/00Z. CYCLONE WILL TURN ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
    PERIOD...ITS CENTER REACHING SERN SIERRAS BY 12/12Z. STG SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR MID-ATLC
    REGIONS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND BY START OF
    PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
    OVER UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION --
    NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN MB AND SRN/CENTRAL
    SK -- MOVES ESEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AMPLIFIES. RELATED
    TROUGH SHOULD REACH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SRN ONT BY 12/12Z.

    AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER ERN/CENTRAL/SWRN TX
    IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS WARM FRONT THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING
    PORTIONS WRN/SRN AR AND NERN OK/SERN KS BY 12/00Z. WRN SEGMENT OF
    THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KS BY COLD FRONT
    NOW MOVING SEWD OVER SD. DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NWRN
    RIM OF GULF RETURN-FLOW DURING DAY...EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE
    SSWWD OVER SERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY
    DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN WARM-FRONTAL INTERSECTION AND
    DRYLINE OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER NRN OK AND TX
    PANHANDLE.

    ...KS/OK BORDER AREA TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
    SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/012Z TIME FRAME
    IN W-E OR WNW-ESE ALIGNED CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SFC FRONTAL
    ZONE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
    SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40 KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL
    FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
    ASCENT TO LFC. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERLAIN BY
    INCREASING THETAE WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
    THIS CORRIDOR...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS
    REGION ALSO SHOULD EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH
    RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING
    ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/INDIANA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE
    EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH DISCRETE/BACKBUILDING
    EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION OVERNIGHT.
    ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE
    CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL.

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1236 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

    VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    TO THE SOUTH OF A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF STRONGER
    WESTERLIES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINGERING CYCLONIC BRANCH
    CURVING OFF THE PACIFIC...THROUGH CALIFORNIA...INTO THE INTERIOR
    U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM...THE
    REMNANT CLOSED LOW...NOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS LIKELY
    TO FINALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...REACHING
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. AS
    THIS OCCURS...A COLD SURFACE HIGH... INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
    UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
    SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
    EASTWARD...GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND
    EVENTUALLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. 11/00Z NAM...GFS AND
    ECMWF ALL APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR... INDICATING STRONGER SURFACE
    PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
    EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG A RETREATING
    SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.


    THE FRONTAL ZONE...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
    PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAY BE PROVIDING A
    FOCUS FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT 12Z FRIDAY. BUT
    THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
    RISE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW...AND SUPPORTING LOWER/MID
    TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
    LATER IN THE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF
    STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS WARM FRONT AND THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH
    PLAINS...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
    LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEY.

    ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
    BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
    LOW...ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN
    ROCKIES.

    ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
    BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
    PLAINS REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
    POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE NEAR
    SURFACE LAYER MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND AREAS
    NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE DAY...AND PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
    PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DAYTIME
    HEATING BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ...WITH
    SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 60F.

    AS A CYCLONIC 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE
    ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
    UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
    SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
    A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH ALONG THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE
    AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.
    ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LATE
    AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
    THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UNLESS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
    DESTABILIZES MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME
    THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
    EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SPREAD WITH
    STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OR THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
    PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL
    NEBRASKA.

    DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0228 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

    VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
    OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
    LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    MODELS INDICATE THAT SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN
    TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS
    THE REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST
    NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VARIABILITY IS
    INCREASING AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
    FEATURE...FROM WHICH A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT SMALLER SCALE
    IMPULSES COULD EMERGE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
    PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NAM/SREF APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
    INITIAL CIRCULATION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
    SATURDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE...AND ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD
    INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH AS GENERALLY HAS
    BEEN INDICATED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
    HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A DISTINCT SECONDARY
    IMPULSE...TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT
    IMPULSE SATURDAY...AS IT LIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS
    THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
    ECMWF ALSO NOW IS MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
    MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...BUT NORTH OF THAT OF THE
    GFS.

    REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
    VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
    THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY
    LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD
    SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 50-70
    KT...BENEATH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET. THIS WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
    CONTENT AIR /PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND 1.5+ INCHES/...WITH 60F+
    SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEY.

    DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
    CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL
    FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

    ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
    GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
    FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
    POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
    INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CONDITIONS MOST
    SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL STILL APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO EVOLVE
    FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
    NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
    HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
    BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...DUE TO THE
    POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WHICH MAY SLOW
    OR INHIBIT INSOLATION. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
    VARIABILITY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SEVERE
    PROBABILITIES. BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND EVENT
    APPEARS A POSSIBILITY. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
    CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

  14. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Slight Risk area has been expanded for today. Roughly I-40 and north through the state, except for the Western 1/3rd. Main threat today is hail.

    ...SRN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND EWD TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
    LATEST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT INDICATING SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
    FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/12Z TIME FRAME IN A W-E ALIGNED
    CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
    AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST OF THIS BOUNDARY BEING A LITTLE SWD INTO
    CENTRAL OK...THE SLIGHT RISK/15 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY HAVE
    BEEN EXPANDED SWD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40
    KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED
    MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC. THIS REGION ALSO
    WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
    ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/
    INDIANA. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP INCREASING THETAE
    WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
    AREA...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. INITIAL
    DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE
    EWD...WITH DISCRETE/ BACKBUILDING EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS SRN KS
    INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK REGION OVERNIGHT AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM
    W TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS
    REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT
    POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Pretty impressive out there this morning. Did not expect any of this waking up.

  16. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Tomorrow could be a very active severe weather day. We are in our 2nd severe weather season right now, so not unusual. Highest risk area will be the OKC Metro area (the entire area...so essentially Chickasha/Purcell/Seminole and northward) back to the North and Northeast.

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

    VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
    CENTRAL U.S....

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A PROGRESSIVE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF
    THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH
    ACCOMPANYING FASTER FLOW FIELD ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.
    MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH --
    AFFECTING BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DURING THE
    PERIOD.

    AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS WITH
    TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...TRAILING FROM A SOMEWHAT
    ILL-DEFINED LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
    REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW/FRONT WILL
    BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER
    POTENTIAL.

    ...THE CENTRAL CONUS...
    A COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH
    SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM PROGRESSION --
    PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- COMBINING WITH
    QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
    SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE
    POTENTIAL.

    CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF W TX NEWD ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY.
    THIS PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID MO
    VALLEY REGION NEWD -- MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS -- DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
    ENVIRONMENT...DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK REMAINS IN
    QUESTION...SUPPORTING A SWWD SHIFT IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
    THIS FORECAST.

    WHILE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE SRN
    PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL...HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
    DESTABILIZATION BEHIND AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT --
    PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED IN
    THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND A BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
    SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
    INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT FROM NWRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN N TX
    REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL STORM MODE
    ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNCERTAIN...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
    WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS.

    FARTHER NE...LIKELIHOOD FOR A MORE MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER AND MIDDLE
    TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH A MORE VEERED/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FIELD
    SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
    THIS REGION.

    AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING
    SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
    CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNALLY STABILIZING AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY
    ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

    ..GOSS.. 10/12/2012

  17. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Slight risk today for the entire area. We are also covered with a 5% tornado risk as well, but main threats should be large hail and winds near 70 mph. Conditions will be somewhat favorable to quick spins up and rotating storms...so don't be shock if we add a few tornadoes to the tally today. Stay away, keep the weather radios on, and enjoy the weekend.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

    VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO
    PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN NOW OVER WRN CONUS IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
    PERIOD. WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER ERN
    UT/WRN CO REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CO BY START OF
    PERIOD...DEVOLVING TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL PLAINS.
    BY 14/00Z...EXPECT HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SLGT
    POSITIVE TILT...FROM S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB ACROSS WRN KS...TX
    PANHANDLE...AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. THIS PERTURBATION WILL
    BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED WITH TIME THEREAFTER...BUT ALSO...WILL
    LINK WITH NRN-STREAM FLOW BELT AND DEAMPLIFY. TROUGH SHOULD BE
    CROSSING WRN OZARKS...WRN MO...AND IA BY 14/12Z.

    AT SFC...PAC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF ROCKIES...WITH
    ATTACHED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA REGION BY 14/00Z...AND
    FRONT SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TRANS-PECOS AREA OF W
    TX. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT PAC FRONT
    OBLIQUELY OVER NWRN OR WRN OK...AND EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS NW TX AND
    PERMIAN BASIN REGION. DRYLINE AND PAC FRONT SHOULD MERGE THROUGH
    REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT -- NOW LOCATED
    OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK AND SRN AR -- IS FCST TO MOVE OR
    REDEVELOP NWD RAPIDLY ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN PERIOD.
    WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SFC LOW ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN WI BY
    14/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER NWRN IL/SWRN
    WI REGION...WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD OVER LOWER MI...AND COLD FRONT
    OVER NRN/WRN MO...ERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

    ...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
    BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD FROM PORTIONS
    W-CENTRAL TX NNEWD ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK...INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL
    KS AND PERHAPS FARTHER NE. RELATED ANVIL SHIELD WILL SUBDUE PACE OF
    INSOLATION IN ITS INFLOW REGION. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SLOW SFC
    HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLY
    LARGE BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT GROWING SVR THREAT WITH TIME THROUGHOUT
    DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS BAND MOVES EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA.
    BACKBUILDING WITH TIME ALSO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW
    TX ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS RIO GRANDE.
    FURTHERMORE...SOME PROGS SUGGEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON QUASI-LINEAR
    TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY AND ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
    FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS/NWRN OK. WIDTH AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
    DESTABILIZATION CORRIDOR BEHIND INITIAL/PRIMARY TSTM BAND IS QUITE
    QUESTIONABLE ATTM...THOUGH THIS AREA GENERALLY IS COVERED BY
    UNCONDITIONAL...MRGL TO SLGT-RISK LEVEL PROBABILITIES THAT ALREADY
    ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TSTMS.

    PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING
    GUSTS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR MODES DOMINANT FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
    NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
    SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL HAIL RISK. ANY SUCH
    SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS...COLLECTIVELY
    OFFER RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL AT LEAST BETWEEN NW TX
    AND WRN MO...WHERE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
    JUXTAPOSE WITH FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. TORNADO THREAT FARTHER NE
    AND SW...WHILE NONZERO...IS MORE CONDITIONAL.

    OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD OVER
    MOST OF THIS AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES...AND AS
    PRIMARY MID-UPPER WAVE DEAMPLIFIES. THREAT MAY PERSIST LONGEST
    OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS S TX INTO N-CENTRAL/NE TX AND SERN
    OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN ABSENCE OF
    SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING.

    ...NRN MO/ERN NEB TO SWRN WI...NWRN IL...
    SCATTERED TSTMS MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN
    PERIOD...PERHAPS AS EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING PORTIONS
    CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
    INTO AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION COULD
    INTRODUCE SFC-BASED PARCELS TO CONVECTIVE INFLOW REGION.
    SEPARATE/NNE-SSW ALIGNED BELT OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC
    COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS MO/IA AND SHIFT EWD.

    AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR OVER WARM
    SECTOR IN THIS REGION...ALBEIT EXHIBITING SOME BACKING WITH HEIGHT
    IN MIDLEVELS COMMON TO QUASI-LINEAR EVENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
    35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
    INVOF WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW. MOST PROGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DEGREE
    OF SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...E.G.
    1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE PREDICTED BY NAM. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL
    DESTABILIZATION MAY BE PRECLUDED BY PRECURSORY PRECIP AND CLOUD
    COVER MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM UPSHEAR AREAS OF CENTRAL PLAINS
    DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY
    ENHANCED SVR WIND POTENTIAL YET MAY DEVELOP POLEWARD OF PRESENT 30%
    LINE...EXTENT/TIMING REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO EXTEND THAT
    PROBABILITY FARTHER NNE ATTM.

    ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/13/2012

  18. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Early morning crapvection is underway. Most of the stuff now is well elevated and may only pose a hail threat here and there. HRRR guidance has this activity continuing, and increasing, over the next 3-4 hours and moving mainly into Eastern OK. Then by late afternoon additional convection will fire along the dryline/front into Central OK. This activity is expected to be surface based and could pose an increasing tornado threat depending on how worked over the atmosphere from the morning garbage. SPC is citing a possible upgrade to Moderate Risk today if things this morning stay under control and don't get very widespread.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

    VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
    AND MID MO VALLEY TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD ARE A SIGNIFICANT
    VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK /12Z ABQ
    SOUNDING SAMPLED 90-95 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE 500 MB/ WHICH WILL
    PROGRESS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK BY 14/00Z
    BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS BY 14/12Z. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
    VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND
    CONCOMITANT TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT OF
    BROADER-SCALE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD
    THE MID MS VALLEY.

    IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
    CNTRL DAKOTAS WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS BY 14/00Z
    BEFORE SHIFTING NEWD INTO E-CNTRL IA BY 14/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE
    CENTER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
    EXTEND SSWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS/WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX BY
    LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE OZARK
    PLATEAU AND CNTRL TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
    FRONT...PRECEDING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW...WILL PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH
    THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

    ...CNTRL KS INTO WRN MO AND SWD INTO NRN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

    AN APPARENT LOW-LATITUDE...LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER W-CNTRL TX IS
    CONTRIBUTING TO A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE
    ERN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. AND IT
    APPEARS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS PERTURBATION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE
    FOR THE EARLY ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND N
    TX AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
    THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION DEVELOPS REMAINS
    UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS COULD HAVE A
    SUBSTANTIAL...NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION LATER
    TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. MOREOVER...DOMINANT
    CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
    REMAINS UNCLEAR...FURTHER BREEDING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.

    BASED ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY EARLY DAY
    CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BASED AROUND 700
    MB. HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
    THIS ACTIVITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF
    ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
    CERTAINTY THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
    FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK INTO NWRN TX AS THE
    VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH
    PLAINS. THE NRN BOUND OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
    DICTATED BY DEGREE TO WHICH THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER INTO KS.

    MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
    LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
    WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS IS
    ANTICIPATED WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT
    SPREADING EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS EVENING
    INTO TONIGHT.

    SHOULD EARLY DAY STORM COVERAGE REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED WITH
    LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CNTRL OK
    VALID LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
    GREATER SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THAN IS INDICATED BY CURRENT
    TORNADO AND HAIL PROBABILITIES. TRENDS WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED
    FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

  19. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Tornado Watch has been issued.

    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 661
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

    TORNADO WATCH 661 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

    OKC003-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055-065-
    067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-140200-
    /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0661.121013T1800Z-121014T0200Z/

    OK
    . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
    CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE
    COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
    GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
    GRANT GREER JACKSON
    JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER
    KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR
    MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
    STEPHENS TILLMAN WA****A
    WOODS

  20. #20

    Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Supercells are firing out west now near Altus, but Im guessing the "crapvection" occurring in central Oklahoma will end the talk of a higher end severe weather event?

  21. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012



    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Mod (60%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Mod (30%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (60%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (30%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (60%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (30%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (>95%)

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 661
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
    NORTHWEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
    900 PM CDT.

    SEVERAL TORNADOES
    ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
    ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
    ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
    A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF HOURS FROM NW TX INTO WRN OK...ALONG AND JUST E OF THE SURFACE
    COLD FRONT. A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING TO THE W OF THE
    ONGOING CONVECTION FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
    DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
    DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    SUPERCELLS...AND THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF
    SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
    TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THROUGH THE
    AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
    BECOME MORE OF A THREAT LATER AS STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
    MORE SOLID LINE CLOSER TO I-35 IN OK.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
    WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
    500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

  22. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Supercells are firing out west now near Altus, but Im guessing the "crapvection" occurring in central Oklahoma will end the talk of a higher end severe weather event?
    Correct. The junk is moving out now and the main show is popping out west now. First candidate for severe weather appears to be the cell in Jackson County.

  23. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Jackson County is now severe warned.

    FYI...The Frederick radar is down still due to Dual-Pol upgrades. So we won't be able to rely on it for today.

  24. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Severe storm in Jackson County starting to take on an interesting shape. Hard to get a good look with no radar right by it, but might need to be watched. Especially with it in a tail end charlie setup.

    Line from Kiowa to Caddo and Wa$hita counties is now severe as well. Additional isolated storms popping up that need to be watched.

  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

    Spotter reports of a wall cloud with the storm near Albert moving towards Binger, Lookeba, and Hinton. There is some rotation south of there east of Alfalfa south of Eakley (this is SW of the reported non-rotating wall cloud). The line is segmenting some so we need to watch things. Storm near Mountain Park is also showing some decent inflow developing.

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