Oklahoma Weather Discussion - August/September 2012

[venture]

Summer continues and near record heat and dry conditions appears to be here for the long haul. This thread will cover both August and September as things should remain pretty quiet severe weather wise. This can also change if we get into a Northwest flow or a tropical system makes a run up from the Gulf.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

Other Threads to Checkout
Severe Weather Trends: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29677
Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29507


Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Severe Weather Information

Current Watches	Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook	Tornado Outlook	Wind Outlook	Hail Outlook

Day 2 Outlook	Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook

Days 4 through 8 Outlook

Day 4	Day 5	Day 6	Day 7	Day 8

SPC Severe Weather Reports

Today Unfiltered Reports Click Here	Yesterday Unfiltered Reports Click Here

Fire Weather Images

Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1	Day 2	Days 3 to 8

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
• NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
• Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
• Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
• West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
• TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
• NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	WSR-88D Frederick Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt
WSR-88D Vance AFB Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date. Phased Array Radar (Next Generation Test Bed) CASA Radar Deployment - SW Oklahoma
Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)	Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite

State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.

[venture]

New thread (yes it is mistitled right now, put in a report to fix that) for the next couple of months.

Medium range models through mid-August show little to no chance of rain. Maybe a few storms getting into NW Oklahoma next week, but I wouldn't really hold my breath. High pressure looks to be firmly entrenched through the forecast period.

Added Fire Weather information to the first post this time. Things are just extremely dry - notice Norman hasn't had more than 0.25" of rain in over 50 days now.

[Roadhawg]

I was coming back from DFW yesterday afternoon and the thermometer in the jeep hit 109.

[ou48A]

KWTV 9 OKC said today at noon that we might get some relief from the extreme heat about next Tuesday or Wednesday.

[sacolton]

Doesn't look like any relief is coming soon.

[venture]

The ridge was showing up as moving west a bit in some of the forecast models yesterday. The runs last night and since then eliminated that. They do show us moving into a NW flow (ridge moving west) around the 14th/15th, but that is well down the road and can change. Still looking at a chance of storms Friday/Saturday in NW OK.

Here is the return of the graphic we saw all too much of last year...hopefully that 100 degree streak just doesn't happen.

[Bunty]

On 7/30/12, the hottest day of this summer in Stillwater coincided with a big wildfire nearby that was brought up this morning on Good Morning America. Here's an aftermath photo of the fire from N. Fairgrounds Rd, or two miles from the city limits:



Maybe this picture explains why the electricity went off in Stillwater during the fire.

[Bunty]

Video from fire east of Stillwater:

[venture]

00Z GFS run tonight is wanting to retreat the ridge back to the west quite a bit this weekend. Bringing a decent chance of rain roughly I-40 and north. We'll see if this sticks. If we can get secured in a NW flow and keep the ridge west we might be able to break out of this heat streak for a bit.

[ou48A]

Current conditions at Norman / Max Westheimer
113°F
Wind Speed Calm

Heat Index 122°F

Last Update on 1 Aug 2:35 pm CDT

HELP

[OKCTalker]

A group of us are riding our bikes around Lake Hefner tonight at 6:00 p.m., starting from Louie's if anybody wants to join us. Two laps, 19 miles. This is one of those "We did it just to say we did" kind of things. Yes, we know - Lake Hefner is conveniently located between Integris and Mercy hospitals.

[adaniel]

I've noticed over the past few days its been significantly more humid at the Norman station than anywhere near OKC. Is that because its in a river valley? Is the weather station at Max Westheimer downwind from a body a water?

[Bunty]

As of 3:45 pm all three wunderground stations in Stillwater were showing 112. The highest high of the stations is 113. The temp is over 100 everywhere in Oklahoma. Bet a lot of towns had their hottest day of the summer today.

[jmpokc1957]

I saw that Wiley Post Airport was reporting 111 deg!

Here in the Portland, Or, area it's 75 and sunny. Might have a heat wave this weekend and hit 90!

I'm no longer dreaming about summer in the Midwest, not after seeing what the past two years has been. I'm getting too old for that!

[OkieHornet]

Current conditions at Norman / Max Westheimer
113°F
Wind Speed Calm

Heat Index 122°F

Last Update on 1 Aug 2:35 pm CDT

HELP

that heat index isn't correct - humidity would have to be 83% for it to be that high, and pretty sure it's in the lower teens right now.

[venture]

that heat index isn't correct - humidity would have to be 83% for it to be that high, and pretty sure it's in the lower teens right now.

Yes it is correct.

Neat little tool to do it yourself: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml

83% humidity would be a heat index of 246°F.

[ou48A]

I believe most of the OKC metro is now restricting water usage.This is for Norman

http://www.ci.norman.ok.us/content/m...r-conservation
Stage 2 of the City of Norman adopted Water Conservation Plan, the following rules and regulations apply:

For Residential Customers: •All outdoor watering or irrigation is prohibited between the hours of 9:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m.
•Odd/Even water restrictions (house addresses that end with an even number water on even numbered calendar days; house addresses that end with an odd number water on odd number calendar days) for irrigation purposes are required for all customers with NO watering on Wednesday and Thursday of each week. The first days with no watering restriction will be Wednesday, August 8th and Thursday, August 9th. Hand watering gardens/plants/shrubs with a hose is allowed at any time. The 31st day of the month is not included in the odd/even water rotation, but conservation is urged.
•Excess water run-off from any landscaped area onto streets is prohibited whether by design, maladjustment to sprinkler system, or usage during high winds.
•Washing of cars, trucks, trailers or other vehicles is prohibited unless these items are taken to a commercial carwash.
•Washing or hosing down of buildings, sidewalks, driveways, patios, porches, parking areas or any paved surface is prohibited.
For Commercial Customers:•All residential watering and irrigation restrictions noted above apply.
•Developers and commercial enterprises must wait until the current water emergency has passed before establishing any new landscaping.
For the City of Norman:•The City will follow the same watering conservation rules as the public.
•City splash pad operation hours will be reduced by 2 hours each day.
•Eliminate non-essential City water use (e.g. street cleaning, vehicle washing, flushing of water mains, fire hydrant testing, etc)

[Bunty]

I bet higher winds expected helped bring on this fire watch in effect until 5pm.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
Updated: Thu Aug-02-12 04:12am CDT
Effective: Thu Aug-02-12 04:12am CDT
Expires: Thu Aug-02-12 05:00pm CDT

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met

Areas affected: Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information.

Message summary: ...critical fire weather conditions likely on friday across parts of oklahoma and western north texas...
...fire weather watch in effect from friday morning through friday evening for low relative humidity...breezy south to southwest winds...and high fire danger for northern...
Southern...and central oklahoma as well as western north texas...
* wind...south to southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
* humidity...10 to 25 percent
* temperature...104 to 112
* impacts...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

[OKCisOK4me]

Current conditions at Norman / Max Westheimer
113°F
Wind Speed Calm

Heat Index 122°F



Last Update on 1 Aug 2:35 pm CDT



HELP

That was the temp in my car yesterday when I went to work!

[venture]

06Z GFS definitely brings hope of more rain for the area, including what is now TD5 up into Western OK after it makes landfall. Not going to jump all in just yet until the 12Z runs.

[ou48A]

TODAY’S FORECAST FOR NORMAN

Sunny and hot, with a high near 115

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...&FcstType=text

[ou48A]

KWTV 9 has a forecasted high of 94 for next Friday

[ou48A]

Meanwhile in Stillwater, OK...

[Bunty]

Scroll down to near bottom to explain what caused the above scene, in addition to the intense heat from the weather. At least it isn't a fake picture: Nearby a dumpster had been on fire. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/201...ing/?mobile=nc

[ou48A]

At 4:15 it’s 113 in Norman with a heat index of 122

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...&FcstType=text