2012 Tropical Weather Discussion Thread

[venture]

Welcome to the new Tropical Weather Discussion Thread that will replace what we originally had. This will be used to cover developments in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/


Current Conditions

Eastern Pacific Activity Atlantic Basic Activity

Weather Information

Atlantic Visible Satellite	Atlantic Water Vapor

Gulf Coast Radars

Western Gulf Coast	Central Gulf Coast	Eastern Gulf Coast

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
• NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
• Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
• Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
• West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
• TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
• NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

[venture]

Tropical Storm DEBBY

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive US Watch/Warning [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone Static Images

Warnings and Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule

Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive^New!
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

[venture]

Latest spaghetti plot for Debby shows models are still all over the place on what to do. NHC does take it west still approach near Houston at 120HRs as an 80 MPH hurricane. Definitely something to watch for us as that could mean a good dumping of rain to break the heat later this week.

Source: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

[ljbab728]

I vote for the two models sending it to Oklahoma which means my vote will count just as much as it usually does when I go to the polls. LOL

[venture]

I vote for the two models sending it to Oklahoma which means my vote will count just as much as it usually does when I go to the polls. LOL

LOL

What a pain in the butt storm to predict. Looks like it is all ahead full to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle now.

[venture]

Tropical Depression FIVE

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data

Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive^New!

[sacolton]

OH PLEASE OH PLEASE OH PLEASE ... Let the hurricane make landfall in Texas so we can get a lot of rain!!!

[ou48A]

OH PLEASE OH PLEASE OH PLEASE ... Let the hurricane make landfall in Texas so we can get a lot of rain!!!

I agree
But unfortunately as dry as it is, we are probably going to need more than one to cover the entire state and not have them move though to quickly.

[venture]

A couple more features out there to look at.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED 40 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA.


1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

Tropical Depression SIX

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive^New!
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

[venture]

Tropical Storm ISAAC

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive US Watch/Warning [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive^New!

[venture]

Isaac could be close to a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida this up coming weekend. Definitely something that needs to be watched.

Another area in the Western Gulf needs to be watched, but low chances there. Then another wave out in the eastern Atlantic is getting its act together and advisories could start on that one pretty soon.

[RadicalModerate]

Great Book . . . Moderate chance of irony.

[jn1780]

Isaac is still struggling to develop an inner core so it he hasn't strengthen that much, yet. The more western track gives Isaac more time over the gulf, but could also mean more time over Cuba so who knows what will happen. lol

[venture]

Yeah there is a decent chance right now that Isaac could get shredded over Cuba until it really comes together. NHC forecast tonight is showing landfall probably near Mobile Bay. The forecast is almost on the western edge of the model guidance. A couple models bring it up further west, the furthest is a landfall neat Beaumont/Port Arthur.

[jn1780]

Isaac is going to go north of Cuba now and is currently reorganizing. I have feeling he may rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

[venture]

Isaac is still looking pretty good. Latest forecast guidance keeps pushing him further west (better chance for us to get something).

Here is the latest spread:




Intensity Forecast isn't too out of control yet, but that Gulf hasn't been disturbed all season and could be perfect for rapid intensification.

[ou48A]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...urricane+Watch

1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
..A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST TO MORGAN CITY AND
INCLUDES THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...

[CuatrodeMayo]

A tropical storm would be just what we need.

[ou48A]

Isaac could cause significant gasoline prices increases and a run on gasoline even today?


http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherb...icane-katrina/


Tropical Storm Isaac Should Rival Hurricane Katrina

On August 24th, we warned on Forbes that Tropical Storm Isaac could pose a threat to energy markets and even rival Hurricane Katrina in its destructive power (Could Tropical Storm Isaac Turn Into Another Katrina?). While the computer models are still showing a substantial spread in solutions, it appears more likely that Isaac will make landfall somewhere near the Louisiana, Mississippi Gulf Coast. This track will provide the storm more time to intensify over the very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.
The entire Gulf Coast from Lake Charles, LA to Panama City, FL should be aware of the latest forecast model guidance. The reason for this large spread is because the computer models are split between whether a trough will capture Isaac or not. As of 8 AM Sunday morning, it appears Isaac will not be captured and as a result, a more westward track is most likely.

Hurricane Katrina made landfall near New Orleans on Aug 29, 2005. It is estimated that the total economic impact in Louisiana and Mississippi exceeded $110 billion, earning the title of the most expensive hurricane ever in US history.

As Katrina moved through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and natural gas production area, it negatively impacted nearly 20% of US oil production. Hurricane Katrina, followed by Hurricane Rita in September, destroyed 113 offshore oil and gas platforms and damaged 457 oil and gas pipelines. Oil, gasoline, and natural gas futures prices on the NYMEX soared as damage assessments were reported.

The hurricane damage inflicted by Katrina caused oil prices to increase from the mid-$60s per barrel to over $70/bbl and gasoline prices at the pump rocketed to near $5 a gallon in some areas of the US. The US government released oil from its stockpile in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to offset price rises. In the natural gas market, prices were trading in the $9 to $10/MMBtu range at the time, but spiked to over $15/MMBtu as the full extent of the damage became apparent.

Additionally, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) was closed on August 27, 2005, reducing production by over 400,000 barrels per day. LOOP handles 13% of the nation’s foreign oil, about 1.2 million barrels a day, and connects by pipeline to 50% of the U.S. refining capability. The port was undamaged by the storm and resumed operation within hours of electricity coming back online.

Gulf of Mexico oil production was reduced by about 1.4 million barrels per day as a result of Hurricane Katrina, equivalent to about 91% of daily Gulf of Mexico oil production. Additionally, over 8 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day of natural gas production was shut in, equivalent to 83% of daily Gulf of Mexico natural gas production.

Seven years later as what will be Hurricane Isaac bears down on the Gulf Coast, the Gulf of Mexico currently accounts for about 23% of oil production and 7% of natural gas output according to the US Department of Energy. Furthermore, roughly 30% of natural gas processing plant capacity and 44% of US refining capacity is located along the US Gulf Coast.

According to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEMRE), 8.6% of the Gulf’s daily oil output and 1.6% of daily natural gas production was shut down as a result of Isaac approaching the Gulf of Mexico. Closing prices as of Friday, Aug 24, 2012 of NYMEX October WTI futures settled at $96.15/bbl, while September natural gas settled at $2.70/MMBtu.

When it comes to offshore oil and gas rig infrastructure in 2012 versus 2005, the biggest difference is that the rigs placed into the Gulf of Mexico in the last several years have been hardened to resist Category 4 or 5 hurricanes. However, up until now, other than Hurricane’s Gustav and Ike in 2008, there has been no real test of the endurance of newer ‘hurricane resistant’ infrastructure that has replaced much of the aging platforms in 2005. Isaac may very well be the storm to test the fortitude of the newer offshore hardware.


In terms of energy prices, it’s very likely that the oil and gas markets will react bullishly to Isaac when traders come back to work on Monday, particularly if the computer models verify a track toward some of the more heavily concentrated oil and gas rig areas off the coast of Louisiana.

Bigger picture technical indicators for September natural gas lean bullish. On the upside, key resistance is seen between $2.89 and $2.94. If the latter is violated, look for aggressive buyers to test the $3.01 area, followed by $3.07 and $3.10. On the downside, key support for the September gas futures contract resides between $2.71 and $2.685. If violated, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see prices pull back further toward $2.62, $2.59, followed by $2.50 and ultimately $2.41 to $2.35.

From the technical indicators perspective, key resistance for October crude is seen at $98.30. If the latter is violated, then a further advance toward target area of $100 to $102 is likely, followed by a potential surge toward the $110 to $114 area. On the downside, support is seen between $97.15 and $96.26, followed by between $95.32 and $94.98, and then again at $92.65 and $91.75.

With respect to insurance companies, natural disasters have been absent for the most part of 2012. Isaac has the potential to be a destructive and devastating storm along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Isaac to make landfall with peak winds of 105 MPH. There is a strong possibility that the storm will be considerably stronger at landfall. The breakdown of 2011 personal and commercial lines market share by company can be seen in the chart below.

[venture]

Lets try to keep the Tropical Weather thread on the weather forecast it. We can do another thread for other economic side effects and such.

[kevinpate]

Looking at that chart, it's mixed emotions time.
Green rolls between an uncle, cousin and brother/spouse
Pink and Orange roll near old friends and kin of a DiL.
Blue rolls near son/spouse.

I hate hurricane season. I really freaking hate it.

[venture]

Long advisory...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012


CORRECTED BREAK POINT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA


...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...




SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES




WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...


THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.


THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.


THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.


THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.


THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO TARPON SPRINGS IS
DISCONTINUED.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...


A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS


A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.


A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.




DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...NEAR KEY WEST...REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 66 MPH...106 KM/H.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.




HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.


WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.


TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.


STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...


* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT


THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.


SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.




NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[venture]

Forecast Discussion...near Cat 3 storm at landfall.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012


ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER
THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.


ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.


THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

[iambecoming]

Are the chances of us getting any rain out of this around slim to none?